Parlays

The Twins and Red Sox play an afternoon game on Saturday after Minnesota took the series opener on Friday by a score of 5-2. On Saturday the Twins send their ace to the mound, while Boston is in the spot in its rotation where it doesn’t have a viable starter due to injuries. Because of the very lopsided pitching mismatch, this game is heavily juiced toward the Twins. You could go the contrarian route here and hope for the best, but I think this is a spot where we probably should eat the chalk. I am backing Minnesota on the money line.

The pitching mismatch is clear. The Sox will be implementing a bullpen game, and that doesn’t usually work out for most teams. The Twins will trust in Pablo Lopez, who hasn’t been elite by any means — but his strikeouts are still there. Boston strikes out at one of the highest rates in the league, and so this is likely to be a K-fest for Lopez. Minnesota also boasts one of the best bullpens in baseball, further solidified by the recent return of Jhoan Duran — which allows everyone else to slot back into their ideal spot. In short, there is a lot working in the Twins’ favor today. With the wind blowing out, you might could get cute and play the run total instead — but I think it is best to stick with the money line.

Twins ML at -180 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Jameson Taillon has pitched 18.0 innings in his 3 starts since returning from injury, allowing just 3 earned runs and producing a 0.94 WHIP. He faced a weak Marlins lineup in his debut but was impressive in taking down the Astros and Mets in his last 2. Chicago has won all 3 Taillon starts, and despite underwhelming strikeout totals the right-hander has otherwise pitched well. He ranks 91st percentile in BB%, 87th percentile in average exit velocity, and 72nd percentile in barrel rate. Something worthy of noting is that Taillon has dropped his sinker usage from 10.4% to 4.6%, and he has only thrown 2 changeups in 3 games. He is using his other 4 pitches 17.5% or more of the time with no single pitch seeing more than 32.5% usage. This balance in his pitch mix has helped him keep opponents off balance so far. He draws a Milwaukee offense that has hit right-handed pitching well this season, even recently without Christian Yelich in the lineup. Still, Taillon should be able to pitch well enough in this spot. 

Tobias Myers will make his 3rd MLB start today after spending the majority of 2023 in AA with the Brewers. 2021 was spent between AA and AAA in the Tampa Bay organization for Myers before pitching just 76 combined AAA innings in 2023 across 3 different organizations. In 137.2 innings last year he posted an ERA and FIP over 5 while his shaky command and home runs problems haunted his game logs. Myers has only walked 1 batter through 2 outings at the major league level, but his 3 home runs surrendered have helped result in 2 Brewers losses. The Cubs’ lineup is better against lefties so far this year. They are still missing some key bats, but I lean toward a Chicago win in this game.

Cubs ML at -125 available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Tampa Bay Rays might be struggling to find consistency this season, but they have an excellent opportunity to pick up a much-needed win against the visiting New York Mets. Despite the Mets’ offensive prowess on the road, the Rays hold several key advantages that make them the smart play on the moneyline at 1.87.

Pitching is often the great equalizer in baseball, and the Rays have a distinct edge with Zack Littell on the mound. The right-hander has been solid this year, posting a 3.27 ERA and allowing three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Conversely, the Mets are sending out rookie Christian Scott for his MLB debut, a risky proposition against a talented Rays lineup.

The Rays have also enjoyed recent success against the Mets, winning their last six home games in the series. Additionally, the Mets have struggled mightily as road underdogs against AL East opponents, losing 11 straight games in that situation. With Tampa Bay playing at home and boasting the more proven starter, the value lies with backing the Rays on the moneyline at 1.87.

Rays ML at -115 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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