College Basketball Parlays

We’ve come to the Final Four, and the first matchup features the Connecticut Huskies vs the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois came out of the South, benefiting from Iowa dispatching top-seeded Florida. Over in the East, UConn had to do the dirty work — mounting an improbable comeback to oust Duke at the buzzer. UConn has become a team that is hard to bet against, but head coach Dan Hurley and his antics have also made it a tournament villain for many fans. All that aside, I do like Illinois in this matchup — and as long as this spread stays close, I am happy to grab it. Be careful here, though, because this game is likely to stay tight and we don’t want to risk the dreaded win-no-cover if we can avoid it.

Why will Illinois win? Here are several factors. First, the Illini boast the #1 offense in the country in terms of efficiency, and they have only gotten better as the season has gone along. UConn has an elite defense, but offense tends to win out at this stage. Second, UConn is great at keeping teams out of transition — but Illinois doesn’t care about that. The Fighting Illini seem to prefer to play in half-court sets anyway. Third, Illinois is the #3 offensive rebounding team in the nation — and that tends to put defenses in a terrible position. Finally, Illinois is the best team in the country at keeping opponents off the foul line and while Connecticut is one of the worst at getting to the line. That means every point for the Huskies is likely to be a grind.

You might note that these teams played early in the season, and the Huskies won by 13. Don’t make too much of that game because lots of things have changed since then, and teams are doing almost nothing that they were doing 5 months ago. The Illinois offense has taken off since the first meeting, and this game should go very differently. Give me Illinois to cover this game at -2, but let’s not push for a multi-possession victory too aggressively here.

UConn vs Illinois prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini -2 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NCAA Tournament has produced plenty of memorable moments and even a few genuinely shocking results, such as UConn’s miraculous victory over Duke in the final seconds. However, while it’s not quite the National Championship game, it certainly feels as if all roads have led to this matchup in the Final Four between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats. These teams have been the class of college basketball for the vast majority of the season, and both sides have shown their quality en route to fairly dominant runs to this year’s installment of the Final Four in Indianapolis. This game is priced competitively and oddsmakers are certainly expecting a barnburner in a showdown between the top 2 teams on both KenPom and BartTorvik. In what should be the Game of the Year in college basketball, the only question that remains is which of these juggernauts will come out on top and play for a national title.

Given that this is a real clash of the titans, there’s only so much that is really separating the top teams in the sport. Ultimately, I strongly believed that Arizona was the best team in the nation heading into the postseason, and my thoughts haven’t changed heading into this weekend’s matchup. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the plus-money price we’re getting with the Wildcats on Saturday. The biggest potential concern that I’d have with backing Arizona in this one is the math advantage that Michigan could have in this game, as the Wolverines attempt far more threes than their counterparts. If Michigan is knocking down shots from beyond the arc, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any team to hang with an offense of this caliber. However, Michigan is shooting nearly 45% from deep in this tournament and Arizona boasts a strong 3-point defense, so we can expect some regression from the Wolverines on that front. Furthermore, the Wildcats are a supremely elite team in a myriad of areas, and Tommy Lloyd’s team should hold advantages when it comes to turnover margin (where Michigan is a below average unit), rebounding margin and free-throw rate. In a game that is expected to come down to the wire, backing an underdog that does a lot of the little things at a very high level is a pretty attractive option.

Both teams certainly want to get out and run, and we’ve seen each program use their prowess in transition to great success in this tournament. In a game where the rubber will really hit the road and victory will likely be decided by the slimmest of margins, getting stops in transition will matter, and Arizona has already done an excellent job of that in March, specifically against the likes of Arkansas and Utah State. The Wildcats frontcourt is also uniquely suited to slow down a Michigan interior that has been one of the most efficient units in the paint all season long. The twin towers of Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendenborg command so much defensive attention that it often leads to open shooters for the Wolverines on the perimeter. But with Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Ivan Karchenkov forming a very formidable defensive frontcourt presence, the water could get shut off a bit from the outside, as the Arizona guards should stay home on shooters. Speaking of the guards, the Wildcats clearly have the superior backcourt in this game, and there should be opportunities from Brayden Burries to get to his spots and hit shots from the perimeter. And when crunch time arrives, there are very few players I’d rather have on both ends than Jaden Bradley — a proven closer when the lights are brightest. Arizona is the slightly better team for my money, so I’ll gladly take the Wildcats as short underdogs in what should be a game for the ages.

Michigan vs Arizona prediction: Arizona ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.