MLB Picks

Joe Ryan will be happy to see the Kansas City Royals standing across the diamond from him on Wednesday evening, as the Minnesota Twins pitcher has performed well in his career against the AL Central rival. Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr, and Vinnie Pasquintino have been particularly abysmal against the right-hander, with Perez having the best average at .227 in 17+ at-bats for each. Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel are two other Royals regulars who have plenty of at-bats against Ryan with limited success. While a cloud of uncertainty hangs over Ryan’s future with the Twins, he has been pitching through it with some strong outings, including his first of the season against the Baltimore Orioles, when he allowed just one hit over 5.1 innings with seven strikeouts.

Noah Cameron, Wednesday night’s starter for the Royals, is also no slouch, owning a 2.99 ERA over 138 innings for Kansas City in 2025. The team struggled, which didn’t give him the greatest overall record, but he was one of the best starters on their staff and proved he could be a scary left-hander to face in the future. He also had great success against the Twins in two starts, allowing just one earned run over 12.1 innings. If both starters get in a groove early and have extended outings, it could be a tough day for the respective offenses.

Twins vs Royals prediction: Under 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

It was a bit of a surprising first start of the season for Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams. Following a breakout 2025 season in which he posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, showing dominant stuff at times and an ability to control the strike zone, Williams struggled against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first start, recording 6 walks. He made up for it by allowing just two hits, which led to three earned runs, but his lack of control left something to be desired. The question left to answer is whether it was first start jitters or a sign of a deeper issue. I’m inclined to believe he’ll find a way to bounce back, even if it’s against the mighty Dodgers.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto picked up right where he left off in last year’s postseason on the Dodgers’ Opening Day, allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs over 6.0 solid innings. The Dodgers’ pitching staff has been stingy as a whole, allowing 4 or fewer runs in each of the first 5 games, which is no surprise with a bunch of high-level starters and a stacked bullpen. Los Angeles’ bullpen is also relatively rested for the rubber match of this series. Despite the Dodgers also having a stacked offense, they haven’t been dominating games as much as some people might’ve thought in the early season. After putting up eight runs on Opening Day against the Diamondbacks, they haven’t scored more than 5 in either of their next 4. Los Angeles also has just 6 runs over the first 2 games of this series. With so much firepower in these offenses, it’s a hard watch to have the under. However, both games have gone under to start the series, and I can see it happening again here.

Guardians vs Dodgers prediction: Under 8.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

This total is being driven almost entirely by perception, specifically the presence of Chris Sale on the mound. While Sale is undeniably the better arm compared to Luis Severino, the number assumes a level of dominance that doesn’t reflect the full game environment — particularly in early-season conditions. For this over to cash, we don’t need chaos — we just need a standard flow. Severino is more than capable of delivering a routine outing in line with his 3.86 ERA profile, which should allow the Atlanta Braves to generate a handful of runs. That immediately puts pressure on the total.

From there, the game likely shifts to the bullpens — and that’s where this over gains real traction. The Athletics’ bullpen has shown consistent vulnerability, while Atlanta’s relief unit is solid but far from untouchable. It’s reasonable to expect both sides to concede late. That leaves Sale needing to be nearly perfect deep into the game to suppress scoring. That’s a thin needle to thread. With multiple avenues for runs and 2 bullpens that can leak, this total is simply too low.

Athletics vs Braves prediction: Over 8.0 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Texas Rangers will face the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday afternoon. The Rangers come into this one with a 4-1 record, while the Orioles are 2-3 so far. In the series between these 2, the Rangers have won both games and have outscored the Orioles 13-7. Starting for the Rangers will be Nathan Eovaldi, who struggled in his first start of the season by giving up 8 hits and 5 runs to the Philadelphia Phillies in just 4.2 innings. That start was not an extension of last season, when Eovaldi posted an 11-3 record with a 1.73 ERA. The issue is that we do not know which version of Eovaldi we will see. Throughout his career, the Orioles’ lineup is hitting .333 against him through 69 at-bats. This makes me concerned for his second start.

The Orioles will go with Trevor Rogers, who is coming off an incredible start in which he pitched 7.0 innings while giving up just 3 hits and no runs to the Minnesota Twins. This is an exact replica of his form last season, when he compiled a 9-3 record and 1.81 ERA. I expect Rogers to have another good start in this one even though the Rangers are hitting the ball well. Count on Rogers going deep into the game with the struggles that the Orioles have been having with their bullpen. Overall, I am going to trust the arm of Rogers and ride Eovaldi to endure another rough outing. I’m rolling with Baltimoreon the money line.

Rangers vs Orioles prediction: Baltimore ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Paul Skenes had a poor start to his season on opening day against the Mets, but the results were not all his fault. His command wasn’t the sharpest, leading to base runners in the first inning — but 2 misplayed fly balls from Oneil Cruz is the reason 4 of those 5 runs crossed the plate. Skenes handled the postgame interviews like a true leader, taking blame for missing his spots in the zone. I expect to see him fired up for his second start against the Reds today. Pittsburgh was able to get to left-handed starter Brandon Williamson on Tuesday evening thanks to some long home runs, but that was Williamson’s first time getting major league action in nearly 2 years. Rust certainly played a role in his performance, but I still don’t think this Pirates lineup is going to be very good against southpaw pitching as currently constructed.

Andrew Abbott is the next southpaw to oppose this lineup, and Abbott was very strong in his season debut. Abbott has lowered his ERA in each of his 3 MLB seasons so far, including a 2.87 mark last season. With 6.0 scoreless frames in his first start of the season, Abbott appears to be in strong form for this matchup with the Pirates. As usual with Pittsburgh, I would prefer to avoid the bullpen — especially until roles are solidified in that backend unit. Despite this game being in Great American Ballpark, I lean toward the under on the posted total through 5 innings of play.

Pirates vs Reds prediction: First 5 innings Under 3.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are set for the rubber match of their 3-game series on Wednesday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Washington took the series opener 13-2 on Monday, while Philadelphia responded with a 3-2 win on Tuesday. The Phillies will send ace Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, and he seems to have a great chance to put his team in a winning position. Sanchez enjoyed a breakout 2025 campaign in which he posted a 2.50 ERA and 1.064 WHIP over 202.0 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off with a sensational Opening Day outing against the Rangers last week. Sanchez tossed 6.0 shutout innings while allowing just 3 hits and striking out 10 en route to a 5-3 win for Philadelphia.

The Philly offense is off to a relatively slow start, but it should be able to do some damage against Washington starter Cade Cavalli. Cavalli is making just his 13th career MLB start and lasted just 3,2 innings last Thursday against the Cubs after allowing 3 walks, 3 hits and 2 runs. The Phillies also have a bit of a scheduling advantage in this one. They are playing their sixth straight home game to start the new season, while the Nationals are playing their sixth consecutive road game. Let’s back Philly on the -1.5 run line.

Nationals vs Phillies prediction: Philadelphia -1.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

After dropping Monday’s game to the Rockies, the Blue Jays got back in the win column on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we have to conclusion to the series with an early afternoon start. The pitching matchup is Kyle Freeland vs Kevin Gausman, and that is one of several reasons the Jays are heavy favorites. The trick with most Rockies games is whether you want to risk catching the one game a week they win, or if you go with the opponent to cover. On Wednesday, I am going with the Blue Jays to cover -1.5.

Freeland is simply not a good pitcher. He struggled in the opener against the Marlins, failing to get through 5 innings. He limited the damage, but it still wasn’t an encouraging start. The Jays should be able to load up their best righty bats and knock him around. Gausman, on the other hand, looked like he was still in his prime in his first start, spinning 11 Ks and allowing only 1 run. He is unlikely to sustain that all season, but let’s ride him while he is hot. Toronto wins comfortably.

Rockies vs Blue Jays prediction: Toronto -1.5 (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It is getaway day for both the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins as they play the rubber match of their series on Wednesday afternoon. These teams have split so far, each scoring 9 runs in their victory. As we rotate back around to the #1 starters on Wednesday, though, I am looking for more of a low-scoring game. Sandy Alcantara and Shane Smith will toe the rubber, and I am targeting the game total under 7.5.

Alcantara was blessed with probably the softest start to the season possible, opening against the Rockies at home and then the White Sox at home. He was nearly perfect in the first start; expect more of the same in the second start. Shane Smith, on the other hand, had a rough opening start against the Brewers. But this is a good pitcher, and the second-year hurler is likely to bounce right back. Bear in mind also that neither lineup is constructed to light up the scoreboard, and this looks like a typical low-scoring afternoon game. Give me the under.

White Sox vs Marlins prediction: Under 7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is a classic overreaction spot, and it sets up perfectly for the New York Mets to respond. Yesterday’s shutout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals was more about isolated performance than any real shift in team quality. Andre Pallante delivered a standout outing, while Kodai Senga was superb in his own right — he just didn’t do 6.0 shutout innings of 3-hit ball. Mets reliever Richard Lovelady once again exposed the one weak link in an otherwise dependable New York bullpen. That combination created the 3-0 result, but it’s not something that projects forward consistently.

New York now hands the ball to ace Freddy Peralta. When Peralta is on, he can completely neutralize opposing lineups with his strikeout ability and swing-and-miss stuff. That gives the Mets a clear edge on the mound against Matthew Liberatore. Beyond pitching, New York remains superior in overall roster construction. The Mets’ bullpen depth, outside of Lovelady is reliable, and their lineup is more disciplined and capable of generating runs through approach rather than volatility. This is where the market corrects. The Mets are the better team, and this is a spot in which they should prove it.

Mets vs Cardinals prediction: New York -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Small-market sports teams are forced to constrict rosters under harsher circumstances than teams with endless funds, and 2 of the best small-market teams in all of sports are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have built reputations across the league as teams you don’t want to trade with, as they always seem to come out on top of those deals. Big-name players that are seeking lucrative extensions often get shipped away, but the prospect return the organization gets has been able to keep their system rolling. Perhaps no 2 teams have been better at picking up castaways and giving them the coaching and nurturing needed to make it at the MLB level. Both teams made moves this offseason that could have raised eyebrows, but I have learned to trust their player scouting and development.

As for Wednesday’s matchup, I lean toward the Brewers grabbing a win at home. Milwaukee grabbed Game 2 of this series Tuesday evening after Tampa Bay opened the set with a win of their own. I expect a pitching duel in this game with both Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski performing well in their season debuts. Misiorowski recorded 11 Ks in just 5.0 innings of work, allowing just 1 run on a solo homer. Rasmussen also tossed 5.0 innings of 1-run ball — allowing a solo shot, as well. Rasmussen was less lethal in the strikeout department, but he was efficient with his pitch count and could see his workload extended this time through the rotation. Pricing is the main reason for siding with Milwaukee in this spot, as a -140 price tag for backing Misiorowski is enticing regardless of matchup. Factor in that Milwaukee is at home, so that is the side for me.

Brewers vs Rays prediction: Milwaukee ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

After struggling offensively in their first 2 games of the season, the Houston Astros have started to find their groove — winning 4 straight games while averaging 9.3 runs per game over that span. As for the Red Sox, this is far from the start they envisioned — sitting at 1-4 on the season while averaging just 2.6 runs per game. Houston will look to complete the sweep, as it sends Michael Burrows to the mound. He is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. For the Red Sox, Garrett Crochet gets the nod — coming in at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. 

Crochet will need to be careful with a couple of key bats in this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .381 with 3 home runs and 6 RBIs, while Jose Altuve is batting .368 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. Both bullpens have had their issues early on, with Boston posting a 4.74 ERA and Houston not far behind at 4.24. While it’s still early in the season, the Astros are hitting .325 against lefties this season. Crochet has also struggled in his career against the Astros, going 0-3 with a 6.28 ERA in 4 starts. While Boston has the pitching advantage heading into this matchup with Crochet, this is going to be a tough spot for him as he tries to cool off a red-hot Astros offense. While Burrows didn’t look good in his first start of the season, I think he’ll settle down here against a Red Sox team that’s hitting just .208 on the season. Look for Houston to complete the sweep.

Red Sox vs Astros prediction: Houston ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Chicago Cubs took the first game of this series by a score of 7-2 on Monday, while the Los Angeles Angels responded with a 2-0 victory on Tuesday. That sets up a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. A pair of lefties will toe the rubber in this contest, as Los Angeles will send Yuesi Kikuchi to the mound while Chicago turns to Matthew Boyd. Neither of these offenses hit lefties well. So far this season, the Angels rank 26th in baseball hitting .158 against southpaws, while the Cubs aren’t much better — 24th hitting .194.

The Angels lead all of baseball with 10 home runs through 6 games, but it would be a bit surprising to see that success last — especially in this one. The wind is expected to be howling in during this contest, which makes home-run hitting a much more difficult task. The Cubs have been a little reliant on the long-ball early on this season, which makes it tough to expect a high-scoring affair in this one. Even with such a low total — given the fact that both offenses aren’t hitting lefties well to start the season — the under is the play.

Angels vs Cubs prediction: Under 6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Things were looking good for the Tigers last night, as they carried a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning. But their bullpen fell apart, giving up 5 runs and allowing the Diamondbacks to come away with a 7-5 victory. Detroit will look to bounce back today with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound. Skubal was terrific in his first start of the season, pitching 6.0 scoreless innings while giving up 3 hits and striking out 6. For the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen gets the nod and will try to rebound from a rough outing against the Dodgers in which he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits over 4.0 innings.  

Offensively, Detroit has struggled to start the season — hitting just .214 with 1 home run, although it still averages 4.8 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been slightly more productive, batting .236 with 6 homers while also averaging 4.8 runs. Even though the Tigers’ bullpen blew last night’s game, I trust Skubal way more in this matchup than I do Gallen. Skubal has a variety of pitches he can beat you with, ranging from a dominating high-velocity fastball that can touch 100 mph to a devastating changeup that hovers around 88 mph to keep hitters off balance. Plus, he’ll throw in sinkers, sliders and an occasional curveball. Despite their issues with the ‘pen last night, the Tigers still hold a 3.21 bullpen ERA; the Diamondbacks’ bullpen holds an 8.16 ERA. With a clear advantage on the mound, look for Skubal to lead the Tigers to a win.

Tigers vs Diamondbacks prediction: Detroit ML  (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Max Fried put together a stellar performance last night in Seattle, throwing 7.0 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts while allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk. With that showing, the Yankees were able to even the series with the Mariners at 1-1 — which means we have a West Coast, Wednesday matinee rubber match on our hands between 2 of the American League’s best teams. 

Wednesday’s matchup features 2 of the better young pitchers in the game, as New York’s Cam Schlittler takes the mound against Seattle’s George Kirby. Schlittler dazzled in spring, and that carried over right into his first regular-season start last week — when he struck out 8 Giants in 5.1 innings while allowing just 1 hit. As for Kirby, his spring training wasn’t as smooth — but he was very good in his opening start against the Guardians, throwing 6.0 innings with 6 strikeouts, 1 earned run, 1 hit and 1 walk allowed. For what it’s worth, this Yankees lineup has just 31 combined at bats against Kirby, and they have mustered just 3 hits. Similarly, the M’s have just 14 at bats against Schlittler — compiling a mere 2 hits in those at-bats. The sample size is very small, but it’s clear these pitchers have had their ways in this matchup thus far. 

With these stud pitchers on the mound, I gravitated toward the under right away. The total is low for a reason; T-Mobile Park in Seattle has consistently been one of, if not the most pitcher-friendly park in the league since 2022, and the mid-40 degree weather won’t help the cause for runs. That’s on top of the fact that we have an amazing pitchers’ duel. Schlittler doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact and is excellent at inducing swinging strikes, boasting well-above-average marks in both of those areas in his short MLB career. Kirby doesn’t miss as many bats and gives up harder contact, but he was able to induce a ground ball over 60% of the time in his first start — which is encouraging against a hard-hitting New York lineup.

These bullpens have been excellent through one week, sitting top 10 in most metrics. The Yankees have surrendered just 1 earned run out of the bullpen, while the Mariners have given up 6. Plus, both ‘pens have allowed just 5 walks each. Both ERAs are well under 3.00, too. All signs point to an under, and for what it’s worth, betting unders in New York’s low-totaled, West-Coast games has been a profitable endeavor since the pitch clock was added in 2023. 

Yankees vs Mariners prediction: Under 7.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

The San Francisco Giants continue their road series against the San Diego Padres in a matchup that sets up well for offense, particularly given the early season volatility on the mound. San Francisco turns to Adrian Houser, who makes his first start of the season after posting a 3.31 ERA across 125.2 innings in 2025. While Houser brings experience and the ability to induce weak contact, this will be his first outing of 2026 — creating some uncertainty around both workload and effectiveness. On the other side, Nick Pivetta has already shown signs of struggle, entering 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA after allowing 6 earned runs and 7 hits in just 3.0 innings in his season debut. Opposing hitters are batting .438 against him, and early command issues have led to consistent traffic on the bases.

Offensively, both teams are trending toward higher-scoring outcomes. The Giants are coming off a 9-3 breakout win in which they recorded 16 hits — a sign that their lineup may be finding rhythm after a slow start, even while holding a .215 team batting average. San Diego has struggled more consistently at the plate with a .182 average, but the lineup still carries power upside capable of capitalizing on mistakes. The Padres’ pitching staff has also been inconsistent, posting a 4.60 team ERA and 1.40 WHIP — which opens the door for continued production from San Francisco. With Pivetta’s early struggles, Houser’s uncertainty in his first outing and both bullpens likely to be heavily involved, this game profiles as one where runs can come in bunches. Given the current pitching form and recent offensive momentum, the conditions strongly point toward this total being cleared.

Giants vs Padres prediction: Over 8 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.