Parlays

During the offseason and back in September, I wrote extensively on Penn State’s mentality as a program and how the future was bright for James Franklin and his team in this new era of college football. In fact, perhaps no team benefited more from the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State, a team that has consistently finished inside the top 10 of the polls over the last 8 seasons but never was able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Now, the Nittany Lions not only get a shot at a National Championship this season, they get to start off their quest for a title at home in front of over 100,000 screaming fans in a “White Out” environment. This is undoubtedly a massive chance for Franklin and this Penn State program to put together a strong showing on a national stage, and I fully believe that the Nittany Lions will take full advantage of that opportunity.

It was just a few weeks ago that we saw SMU claw its way back to nearly steal the ACC title from Clemson. And while I’m of the opinion that the Mustangs were probably the better team in that contest, that doesn’t help Rhett Lashlee’s group now, as they’ll have their hands full with a rested and hungry Penn State side in hostile territory. The problem for the Mustangs is that unlike the ACC title game, this game is one that should feature much less chaos and variance, which is typically what underdogs need to pull off an upset on the road in a big game. In fact, one of Penn State’s great strengths is its ability to stay on schedule on offense. Andy Kotelnicki’s unit ranks 2nd nationally in success rate, 5th in Early Downs EPA and 6th in 3rd down success rate. Therefore, even though SMU’s defense has actually become the strength of the team, it’s hard to see the Mustangs shutting down a confident Drew Allar and this Nittany Lions offense. On the other side of the ball, Kevin Jennings and the SMU offense has been very efficient and effective in ACC play, despite getting off to a disappointing start to the nonconference portion of its schedule and needing to figure things out on the fly. With that being said, this is by far the best defense that the Mustangs will have faced to this point, and the likes of Abdul Carter and the Penn State pass rush should give this offensive line fits, especially because SMU’s line has really struggled in pass protection this season.

This is a game that should be close for at least a half, but it’s easy to see things unraveling a bit for SMU on both sides of the ball as the game goes along. Franklin’s teams have done very well over the years in this exact type of situation (favored by 7+ points at home), and I anticipate that we’ll get a similar result here. Penn State should be prepared to win the war of attrition, so let’s back the Nittany Lions to protect their home field and win this game by margin.

SMU vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5

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The 2024 College Football Playoff is set, and with the expansion to 12 teams, the Texas Longhorns (11-2) will host the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers (10-3) in Austin in the first round. The Longhorns are significant favorites in this matchup, which is probably to be expected given the fact that they took care of business against everyone not named the Georgia Bulldogs. In fact, Texas was 0-2 SU and ATS in its games against Georgia this season, but 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in all other games – just missing the money by a field goal as double-digit favorites against Kentucky and Arkansas. On the other side, Clemson is fortunate to be in this situation, as the Tigers slid into the ACC title game having lost just 1 conference game in a regular season in which they avoided the other top 2 teams in the conference (Miami and SMU). Moreover, the Tigers needed a last-second field goal to win the ACC Championship over SMU despite holding a 24-7 halftime lead. 

At first glance, this feels like a lot of points to give a former national champion that is playing with house money. However, Texas’ defense is the best unit in this matchup, and I can’t seem to shake Clemson’s regular season performances against its best defensive opponents from my head. The Tigers started the season with a less-than-desirable performance against Georgia, in which they scored just 3 points and averaged less than 4 yards per play. Against Louisville in Week 10, the Tigers averaged less than 4.5 yards per play and scored just 21 points despite running over 100 plays on their home field. They also struggled to score in their season finale at home against South Carolina, a game that ended abruptly because of a Cade Klubnik interception while the Tigers were in game-tying field goal range. Texas’ defense is not only better than those previously mentioned teams, but every defense in the country except Notre Dame when you look at season-long PPA per play outside of garbage time. 

The Longhorns excel at limiting explosives and scoring opportunities while generating havoc at a top 10 rate, which figures to be a problem for a Clemson offense that is 85th in points per scoring opportunity and 53rd in total havoc allowed since Week 9. Klubnik has been excellent under pressure this season, and there is a path to success for the Tigers if he can improvise in the pocket and create offense through hidden yards with his legs. However, facing this type of defense in a true road atmosphere in the playoffs is going to give him everything he can handle and is likely to wear him down as the game goes on – especially if running back Phil Mafah is not 100%. I have Texas power rated as a 13.5-point favorite in this matchup, so I lean to laying the points with the Longhorns at home.

Clemson vs Texas prediction: Texas -11 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -12. 

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The Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) will meet for the first time since 1996 and just the 2nd time ever this Saturday in the final game of the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Volunteers finished the season winners of 6 of their last 7 – including wins over Florida and Alabama – with their lone loss in that stretch coming against Georgia in Athens. Ohio State had similar success down the stretch, but their dominant win over fellow playoff team Indiana was tarnished by a home loss to Michigan in which the Buckeyes gained only 252 yards and were held to just 10 points – their worst offensive performance since their loss to Clemson in the 2016 CFP semifinal. 

The Vols will likely turn to SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson early and often in this game, in an effort to keep the ball out of Ohio State’s hands. Samspon gained over 1,500 total yards with 22 touchdowns this season, and is one of the best running backs in the country when it comes to creating yards after contact and forcing missed tackles. He should find plenty of success behind a Tennessee offensive line that is elite in stuff rate allowed, line yards and power success while preventing opposing front 7 havoc at a top 35 rate. Despite Ohio State’s defensive prowess this season, the Buckeyes aren’t great in short yardage situations. They rank 82nd in power success and 124th in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 9, which gives the advantage to Tennessee in potential short yardage situations on third and fourth down. 

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee should be able to apply constant pressure to Ohio State quarterback Will Howard. The Vols are in a good position to shut down the Ohio State run game as well, similar to the way Michigan did in the season finale. The Buckeyes will again be without 2 starting offensive linemen, including their best pass blocker in Josh Simmons and their Rimington Award winning center Seth McGlaughlin, which is simply a disaster against James Pearce Jr and the Volunteer defensive front. Tennessee is especially good at creating negative plays in the backfield, recording 29 sacks (41st) and 93 tackles for loss (9th) this year. Furthermore, the Vols front 7 generated havoc at a top 35 rate in the final 6 weeks of the season. Per PFF, Tennessee is a top 15 defense against the run and in its pass rush, which is not ideal for the Buckeyes after the offensive performance we saw from them against Michigan, and even against Penn State and Nebraska immediately following Simmons’ injury.

The Ohio State-Michigan rivalry is the most heated in college football, so much so that a lot of Ohio State fans want coach Ryan Day fired because of his inability to beat the Wolverines at any point in the last 4 years. Some fans even argued the Buckeyes were better off declining the invitation to the CFP. I bring this up because there is going to be immense pressure on Day and the Buckeyes in front of their home fans on primetime this Saturday night. If things start to sour for the Buckeyes, the “boo birds” may be out in full force. With a strong ground game and pass rush, Tennessee has the tools to be successful in this matchup – including a decent special teams advantage per SP+. All things considered, the Vols should be able to keep this one close throughout. 

Tennessee vs Ohio State prediction: Tennessee +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to suit up for this matchup with the Texans but the Chiefs should still be able to secure the victory as a home underdog. Mahomes injured his ankle against the Browns last week which means that Carson Wentz is now likely to get the start for Kansas City. Wentz completed both of his passes for 20 yards in that Cleveland game and the former #2 overall pick is more than capable of leading the Chiefs to get the win. Despite holding a 9-5 record, the Texans have not been all that convincing recently. They are 3-3 in their last 6 games with defeats to the lowly Jets and Titans in there, and much of that is down to their offensive line struggling to protect CJ Stroud (Houston has allowed the 5th-most sacks in the league).

Despite Mahomes’ injury, what has really driven the Chiefs to being 13-1 this season has been their defense, and they should feast on Stroud. Kansas City has allowed the 7th-fewest passing yards per attempt and the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns. They have also held running backs to the 2nd-fewest yards per carry (3.9) and could have success shutting down Joe Mixon, especially after his disappointing performance last week where he had 12 carries for just 23 yards. Losing Mahomes is no doubt a big blow for KC, but Andy Reid is a terrific game manager and still has plenty of talent at his disposal. In front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd, I’m happy to take the Chiefs as a rare home underdog. It’s also worth grabbing the extra couple of points as insurance too.

Texans vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.5.

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One month after the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Baltimore Ravens in another instance of the underdog winning outright in this storied AFC North rivalry, these teams will meet again with a division title on the line on Saturday in Baltimore. This is a series where underdogs typically shine, as the ‘dog is 19-2-3 against the spread since Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh assumed the head coaching duties at each team. There will be plenty of talk regarding Lamar Jackson’s poor performance against Pittsburgh in his career, and that narrative is certainly warranted. After all, the Ravens are just 1-4 in Jackson’s starts against the Steelers, and he’s had just 5 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in those games. Against a defense that has historically given him fits (and could be getting T.J. Watt back following an injury scare a week ago), it’s hard to trust Jackson to be at his best in what is likely the most important game of the season for both teams to this point.

The Steelers’ offense isn’t a very consistent unit, but what they do well is generate explosive plays downfield in the passing game with Russell Wilson at the helm. And while George Pickens is expected to miss another week due to injury, Pittsburgh should still look to run the ball, chew up clock in order to shorten the game and look for Wilson to connect on a double of deep passing plays against a Ravens secondary that has struggled all season long with allowing explosives. While Baltimore’s defense has been playing a lot better in recent weeks, it’s not like the offenses the Ravens were facing are anything to write home about. And even in a solid overall showing against the red-hot Eagles, Baltimore couldn’t get stops in that game when it mattered most. There’s a real possibility that the Ravens win this game, but not by a full touchdown or more. Tomlin as an underdog has been historically great in this type of spot, so let’s go back to the well once more in this AFC North clash.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Steelers +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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The Cardinals kept their playoff hopes alive as they beat the Patriots 30-17 last Sunday. Kyler Murray was impressive in the win as he completed 23 of his 30 passes for 224 yards but no touchdown passes. That’s because every time the Cardinals got close to the end zone, it became James Conner territory. The veteran back just signed an extension in Arizona and celebrated it by running for 110 yards on just 16 carries. On the other side of the ball, the defense held Drake Maye to just 202 yards through the air and Rhamondre Stevenson to just 69 yards on the ground. It’s been the defense that has been inconsistent at times this season which has become the main reason for Arizona’s struggles, but it was good to see the secondary step up last week. The defense gets a somewhat favorable matchup again in Week 16 against the Panthers.

Carolina was the favorite in a game for the first time since Week 15 of 2022 and it didn’t go well. The Cowboys upset the Panthers 30-14 as the secondary just couldn’t stop CeeDee Lamb through the air or Rico Dowdle on the ground. Early on in the game, it became very apparent that Cooper Rush was looking for Lamb any chance he could and that led to him having 9 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. That leads me to believe Marvin Harrison Jr. could be in for a big day against this weak Panthers secondary. Plus, Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in football. The Panthers have allowed 173 rushing yards per game which is the worst mark in the league. In fact, they allow 29.3 more rushing yards per game than the team ranked 31st. That Swiss cheese defensive line got carved up by Dowdle last week as he ran for 149 yards on 25 carries. That provides Conner with an excellent matchup on the ground. It’s a short spread so I’m willing to back the Cardinals in Carolina.

Cardinals vs Panthers prediction: Cardinals -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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The Detroit Lions travel to Soldier Field this Sunday to take on the Chicago Bears in the second meeting between these squads. They faced off on Thanksgiving, and although the Lions jumped out to a 16-0 halftime lead, the Bears fought back and had the chance to attempt a game-tying field goal as the clock expired. However, their disgraced head coach, Matt Eberflus, completely mismanaged the clock, and the Bears fell 23-20. He’s since been dismissed, but things haven’t improved for Chicago, as they’re 0-2 since the firing and have been outscored 68-25 against the 49ers and Vikings.

Detroit enters this matchup after suffering their second defeat of the season, 48-42, at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen further solidified himself as the MVP favorite, and Buffalo had a 35-14 3rd-quarter lead before Detroit stormed back and made it a game. Head coach Dan Campbell made a questionable call to go for an onside kick with 11 minutes left in a 10-point game, which ultimately killed the Lions’ momentum. Additionally, they lost RB David Montgomery to a knee injury, and while he’s seeking a second opinion on the injury, it looks like Detroit will likely be without him for this game and the rest of the regular season.

The Lions were 9-1 ATS before failing to cover each of their last 3 games, but they’re still 5-1 against the number on the road and have been elite under Dan Campbell after a loss. Since Week 9 of the 2022-23 season (Campbell’s second season in charge), Detroit is 8-0 following a defeat, winning by an average of 16.3 ppg. They failed to cover against the Bears in the first meeting, but I have to think Chicago has very little motivation to win this game and expect a beatdown by Detroit. 7 of the Lions’ 12 wins this year have come by a TD or more, and I expect them to get another 7+ point victory in Chicago this weekend.

Lions vs Bears prediction: Detroit -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7 (-110).

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There is a lot of injury uncertainty around this game, which makes it a bit harder to handicap when diving into how the teams match up with each other. With that being said, it’s hard for me to ignore how poor the Seattle offense looked against Green Bay last Sunday, particularly on the offensive line. Geno Smith has been under duress all season long, and the dam finally broke in last week’s contest, as he was forced to leave the game with an injury. Smith’s status is uncertain for this game, and as of Thursday morning, the betting market is anticipating that Smith will not play this week, even though he did practice in limited capacity on Wednesday. The offensive line situation is one that could get even worse for the Seahawks, as starting center Olu Oluwatimi could end up missing this game, meaning that rookie Jalen Sundell would need to step up in his place. Whether Smith gets the start or Sam Howell ends up being needed off the bench, it could be a long day for this Seattle passing offense.

As for the Vikings, Minnesota hasn’t exactly faced a murderers’ row of opponents in recent weeks. However, Minnesota’s coaching staff is one of the best in the league for a reason, as Kevin O’Connell and company continue to get the most out of Sam Darnold and this offense. Aaron Jones is coming off back-to-back rock-solid performances, and he’ll be going up against a Seahawks run defense that struggled mightily to stop Josh Jacobs and the Packers a week ago. Justin Jefferson has 3 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks, and he’ll instantly create matchup problems for this Seattle secondary. I don’t expect a ton of points from either side in this one, but my lean would still be on the road favorites to cover the short number here.

Vikings vs Seahawks prediction: Vikings -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Last week was a nightmare for Will Levis. The Titans quarterback completed just 8 of his 12 passes for 89 yards with 3 interceptions. He kept finding open guys, but they weren’t always on his team. He was benched for Mason Rudolph after his 3rd pick and Rudolph looked extremely sharp in the second half. He finished 21/26 for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns, which brought the Titans back into the game. With that said, Levis had caused too much damage to complete the comeback. There were questions after the loss about which quarterback would start in Week 16 and Brian Callahan didn’t take long to announce that it would be Rudolph. Right now, the Titans appear to have a better chance to win with the veteran quarterback under center. With Rudolph back, Tony Pollard in the backfield, and Calvin Ridley as the main target, the Titans have potential.

The bye week appeared to do more damage than repair for the Colts. Indy went into the bye fresh off a 25-24 victory over the Patriots and came out of the bye looking flat. They lost 31-13 to the Broncos in Denver and Anthony Richardson looked terrible. He completed just 17 of his 38 passes to go with 2 interceptions. His accuracy has always been a topic for debate and it hasn’t appeared to improve yet. I’m expecting Richardson to have a hard time against the Titans’ defense since Tennessee’s secondary is elite. The secondary is allowing the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game this season. I’m taking a shot on the Titans with Rudolph back under center.

Both the Rams and Jets won in Week 15, but the victories couldn’t have been more different. The Rams beat the 49ers 12-6 in what might be the most boring Thursday Night Football game of the year and the Jets made a second-half comeback against Mac Jones and the Jaguars. But make no mistake – these teams are headed in opposite directions. The Rams are 8-6 and have proven to have one of the most dangerous offenses in the game. Between Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford has plenty of offensive weapons to choose from. It’s hard to imagine a defense that just allowed 25 points to Mac Jones and the Jags will be able to contain Stafford and the best receiving duo in football.

New York’s win snapped a 4-game losing streak and earned their 4th victory of the season. The entire year has been a disappointment for the Jets and there seems to be a lot of rift between Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson. Maybe that’s because Davante Adams recorded 9 catches for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns and Wilson hauled in just 3 catches for 56 yards. Adams has completely stolen Rodgers’ attention from Wilson. Plus, Breece Hall still doesn’t look 100% healthy. I was baffled to see the spread as just a field goal, so I’m taking an alternate spread to get the best value for the Rams.

Sunday Night Football will feature Baker Mayfield against Cooper Rush. If you like points, this game should be perfect for you. The Buccaneers have been one of the biggest surprises of the season as they are 8-6 and right in the thick of the playoff hunt. It’s even more impressive considering Mayfield was without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for several weeks and had to make do with Cade Otton being the #1 option. But now that Evans is back, the Bucs’ offense has become extremely balanced. Otton has earned Mayfield’s trust, Rachaad White remains a valuable receiving back and Bucky Irving has blossomed into a true RB1 in the last few weeks. That led them to score 40 points against an elite Chargers defense last week. I love this matchup for Mayfield on Sunday night.

It feels weird to say, but the Cowboys actually upset the Panthers last week. Carolina was the favorite in a game for the first time since Week 15 of the 2022 season, and in classic Panther fashion, they blew it. Bryce Young was terrorized in the pocket as he threw 2 interceptions and was sacked 6 times. Plus, the offense lost 2 fumbles. On offense, the Cowboys looked much more fluid. Rush was targeting CeeDee Lamb whenever he could and Rico Dowdle went crazy on the ground for 149 rushing yards. But remember — the Panthers’ defense is one of the worst units in football. I’m expecting a much better defensive performance from the Bucs as they win this primetime game by at least a touchdown.

The Ohio Bobcats, fresh off of their MAC Championship Game victory in Detroit, heads down to Orlando to tangle with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the StaffDNA Cure Bowl at Camping World Stadium. We’ll get a battle of interim head coaches, too, as Tim Albin leaves the sidelines at Ohio to take the Charlotte job, while Rich Rodriguez is going back to West Virginia from Jax State. The Bobcats rolled up some big-time numbers behind QB Parker Navarro, while he also leans on RB Anthony Tyus III. Both players ran for over 1,000 yards. On defense, Ohio limited the opposition to just 95.8 yards per game, which ranked 4th in the country.

For Jax State, it struggled to shut down the run, allowing 170.2 yards per game, which is great news for Navarro, Tyus and company. The Gamecocks can roll up some big-time numbers on offense, however, as QB Tyler Huff and RB Tre Stewart also went over 1,000 yards on the ground. The difference might be rushing defense, as again, Ohio was great, while Jacksonville State had a lot of trouble. Ohio has won 5 consecutive bowl games since 2016 and did not have many meaningful opt-outs or portal defections. As long as Ohio doesn’t fall behind early, the Bobcats should be able to take care of business in this one.

Ohio vs Jacksonville State prediction: Ohio -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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One of the hardest things to do in bowl season is handicapping motivation, but that shouldn’t be an issue in the Gasparilla Bowl between Tulane and Florida on Friday. This line has moved considerably since this bowl was announced, but I’m still comfortable laying a ton of points with Florida in this spot due to the severe gap in motivation, recent performance and the roster difference between these 2 teams. For starters, this Tulane team is coming off its 2 worst performances of the season at the worst time, as the Green Wave were pounded in consecutive weeks by Memphis and Army, the latter of which came in the AAC title game. Tulane hardly looked like it wanted to be on the field at West Point, and I don’t see that mentality changing all that much on Friday, even with head coach Jon Sumrall announcing his continued commitment to the program after flirting with other jobs. Starting quarterback Darian Mensah was the shining star of this offense all season long, but he’s already announced his transfer to Duke and won’t be with the team for this game. Ty Thompson will start in his place, a player who has only thrown 11 passes all season long. That doesn’t bode well against a Florida defense that saw consistent improvement as the season went on, despite playing what was arguably the toughest schedule of any team in the nation. The Gators’ defense should be able to impose their will up front and set the tone against a pretty inexperienced quarterback in this one.

On the other side, Florida finished the season with a flourish thanks to a trio of impressive victories over LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. DJ Lagway looks like someone who will get a ton of Heisman Trophy buzz this offseason, and he’s certainly played like one of the more promising quarterbacks in the nation to this point, winning 5 of the 6 games he started this season. The insertion of Lagway under center had a clear and obvious impact on the Florida offense, as the Gators have climbed to 27th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play (College Football Insiders) following a dismal first month of the campaign. Florida is a balanced unit that should be able to pick on a Tulane defense that has strong metrics but has looked noticeably weaker in games against higher-level competition. It doesn’t help matters that the Green Wave are dealing with some crucial transfers and opt-outs on both sides of the ball, much like many other teams this time of year. With that in mind, let’s back the Gators in a bowl game smash spot on Friday.

Tulane vs Florida prediction: Florida -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -12.5

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Prior to Week 1 of this college football season, you would’ve been hard pressed to find many fans and analysts alike who thought we’d be getting a matchup between Indiana and Notre Dame to kick off the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. And yet, this improbable and unpredictable season has led us directly to this moment, as the upstart Hoosiers are set to take on one of the biggest brands in the sport in a “battle for Indiana” on what should be a chilly Friday night in South Bend. Both of these teams are in fairly unfamiliar positions, with Notre Dame suddenly having what some believe to be an inside track to the semifinals given the injury news surrounding Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. On the other side, this is easily the biggest game in Indiana football history and a true David vs Goliath matchup on the biggest stage in the sport.

Both of these teams are clearly worthy of being in the field, but they each possess obvious flaws. Much has been made of Indiana’s poor strength of schedule to this point, and the Hoosiers didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory in a blowout loss to Ohio State back on November 23, their lone meeting against a team in the College Football Playoff field. With that said, this is a solid situational spot for head coach Curt Cignetti and his terrific staff, as they will have had multiple weeks to prepare for this game. Cignetti should also be able to spin the narrative in a way gives his team a bit of extra motivation, especially with how Indiana’s historic season has essentially been diminished and pushed aside by most of the national media. Most of the focus in this game is on Notre Dame, which is pretty advantageous toward Cignetti’s group. Therefore, we can at least expect the Hoosiers to come out with their hair on fire and execute very well in the scripted portion of the game in the first half. Additionally, while strength of schedule disparity could prove to be important in other playoff games, it’s not like Notre Dame has played a murderers’ row of opponents this season. In fact, the game that is likely the best win for Marcus Freeman’s team coming all the way back in Week 1 against a Texas A&M squad that wasn’t even starting its best quarterback (Marcel Reed) in that game.

On paper, the Irish have a strong statistical profile, particularly on defense, ranking 8th in success rate allowed and 5th in points per drive (College Football Insiders). However, it’s fair to suggest that those numbers have certainly been buoyed by a soft schedule. It was just a few weeks ago that there were some very concerning signs for Notre Dame’s defense in its most recent game against USC, in which the Irish allowed 557 yards and a whopping 7.2 yards per play to a Trojans team that had nothing to play for. With that result in mind, it would be fair to suggest that all-Big Ten quarterback Kurtis Rourke and this Indiana offense that is 1st in success rate and 2nd in opponent adjusted EPA per play could ask some questions of an Irish defense that has largely been untested by opposing offenses this season. If this game ends up being close down the stretch, it’ll likely be Notre Dame that has to deal with all of the pressure of being a considerable favorite at home and the expectation that it has to win this game against a greatly inferior program. Ultimately, the Hoosiers are a very good team that’s playing with a bit of house money and eager to get the bad taste of that disappointing Ohio State performance out of their mouths, so let’s back Cignetti and his squad to cover this number while it’s still over a touchdown.

Indiana vs Notre Dame pick: Indiana +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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After getting clobbered by the worst team in the NBA 123-114 last night, the Charlotte Hornets head to Philadelphia for the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the 76ers. Once again they are big underdogs in a game, understandable considering they are just 1-4 SU in their 5 games in a back-to-back scenario. Brandon Miller did not play in Washington last night, his 21.5 points per game is a massive loss for a team that’s not talented enough even when he plays. With single digit threes scored now twice over their last 3 games, I’m afraid optimism won’t be at a high going into this game. Philadelphia has won 9 straight against this team, including 5 in a row in their building.

With 5 wins in 7 games and a 6-1 ATS record to go along with that, the 76ers are slowly but surely making up ground in the Eastern Conference. They are 12th now, just a game and a half behind the 10th seeded Brooklyn Nets who occupy the final play-in tournament spot. With 58 games left to be played, there is more than enough time to leap a few teams. In order for them to do that they have to be winning games like these, regardless if Embiid plays or not. The big fella is a GTD here, without him the Sixers won their last game 121-108 vs Charlotte thanks to 40 points from Maxey and 33 from Paul George. Those two are used to doing the heavy lifting in Embiid’s absence, Philadelphia has now covered the spread in 7 of 8 games vs East teams.

Losing to the Wizards last night was a new low, even for the Hornets who are just 7-20 on the season and 2-10 in road games. They rank 26th in offense over their last 10 games, and in the bottom 10 in most defensive stats during this stretch. Philadelphia should have enough firepower in front of the home fans to sink this team even further.

Hornets vs 76ers Predictions: 76ers -9.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NBA season feels like it’s going to truly heat up now that the in-season tournament is behind us. Fresh off their victory in the NBA Cup, the Milwaukee Bucks come into tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers riding high. However, they’ll face a tough challenge without Damian Lillard, while Khris Middleton is doubtful. The Bucks capitalized on a poor shooting night from Oklahoma City in the Cup final, but their middling offense and defense could be exposed against a far more consistent Cavaliers squad.

Cleveland — the current top seed in the Eastern Conference — is nearly at full strength, with only Isaac Okoro sidelined. They rank among the league’s best on both sides of the ball, combining an efficient offense with a stifling defense. Led by Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs are built to exploit any weaknesses the shorthanded Bucks present. While Milwaukee has been playing better of late, their lack of firepower without Lillard significantly reduces their ability to contend against top-tier competition. The public seems heavily skewed toward Milwaukee after their Cup win, with nearly 70% of bets leaning their way. However, this feels like a tricky spot for the Bucks, whose recent reliance on shooting and turnover luck against OKC won’t translate against a disciplined Cleveland team. Expect the Cavs to avoid the inconsistencies that plagued the Thunder and take control early.

Bucks vs Cavaliers Prediction: Cavaliers -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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I backed the Oklahoma City Thunders game against the Orlando Magic to come in under 213 points last night and they delivered. I expect a similarly low scoring game tonight as they take on the Miami Heat. Both teams go into the game without any fresh injury concerns. The Thunder are on the second night of a back-to-back and could be plagued by fatigue. They have been just 21st in pace over the last 10 games. With the Heat just 29th in that category themselves, look for this one to be played at a very slow tempo here. The teams rank 4th and 9th over the last 10 games in opponent fast break points per game, respectively. Look for this to turn into a half court battle.

The Heat have been relying on Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro to carry their offense, but they will have a tough matchup here faced against the likes of Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso. With Isaiah Hartenstein holding down the paint, the Thunder are well positioned to clamp down on the Heat. The Thunder have kept 5 of their last 6 opponents to below 105 points and could be set to do the same tonight. Over the last 5 games the Thunder have the best defensive rating in the league. With the Heat also making the top 10, this should be a low scoring encounter.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Predictions: Under 216.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 214.

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The total for this game opened at 6.0 but has started to move to 6.5 in some spots. There’s no question that the Buffalo Sabres are falling apart. They have lost 11 in a row and look miserable in most of their games. They allowed 6 goals to the Canadiens last game, a team that doesn’t shoot the puck or score goals on home ice. As bad as this Sabres team has been this season, we can’t fully trust the Leafs to be at their best in this one. They have been playing really well over the last 5 games, but tonight, Matt Murray is starting for the first time in over a year and there is no way we can trust him to be good. One thing is for sure; there will be no shortage of scoring chances tonight. Toronto has an elite offense and the Sabres will have Rasmus Dahlin back in the lineup. We can expect a healthy number of goals for this one.

Over 6 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The New York Rangers travel to Dallas to take on the Stars for the first time this season. It’s no secret that the Rangers are desperate to get back to winning because the more they lose, the more things boil over. Kaapo Kakko was the last player to be moved and GM Chris Drury is probably not done. Everyone had high hopes for this team, but if they don’t start winning soon, things may be over before they even have a chance to turn things around.

Dallas has been lights out on home ice–sporting a 13-4-0 record– and are looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs a few nights ago. The Stars might not be the better team on paper, but they aren’t in shambles and that is the most important thing. They have depth up front, a solid defensive group and a goalie who is actually making saves. The Rangers might come out and have a good game, or they don’t show up and get embarrassed on the road. Either way, The Stars are favorite to win this game and we shouldn’t bet against that.

Rangers vs Stars prediction: Stars 3-Way ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The St. John’s Red Storm (9-2) travel to Rhode Island to take on the Providence Friars (7-5) in what promises to be an intriguing Big East clash. St. John’s has been electric this season, averaging 84.8 points per game with a strong offensive rating complemented by a top-30 defense. The Red Storm’s ability to control the boards and shoot efficiently, both inside and beyond the arc, has led to blowout wins against DePaul, Bryant, and Kansas State. However, they’ve spent much of the season at home, and their 1-1 record against the spread (ATS) on the road suggests they’ve struggled to replicate their dominance in unfamiliar environments.

On the other hand, Providence enters the matchup with a more modest 7-5 record and is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to St. Bonaventure. The Friars don’t dazzle statistically, but their controlled, deliberate style can frustrate high-paced opponents like St. John’s. Expect Providence to slow the tempo, relying on half-court sets to stay within striking distance. History is on their side, as past matchups in Providence have often leaned in their favor. While St. John’s has the firepower to pull off a road win, their inconsistency away from home and Providence’s trend of grinding out close games make the Friars a solid pick to cover the +6.5 spread.

St Johns vs Providence Prediction: Providence +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Dayton Flyers will face off on Friday night inside the Heritage Bank Center for a non-conference showdown. This game will be played in downtown Cincinnati but only a few miles from the Bearcats normal home arena. Dayton fans should still be able to make the trip since the arena is just about 60 miles away from Dayton and we should be in for a good environment for one of the best games of the night. Both teams are ranked inside the latest AP Top 25 rankings, and it should come down to the wire as the spread suggests. The spread is just 3.5 points, but our best bet of the game is the under.

The total for this game is currently at 139.5 points and the under is our best bet due to the slow pace that both teams play. According to KenPom, Dayton is ranked #307 in adjusted tempo and #309 in average defensive possession length. Cincinnati is ranked #275 in adjusted tempo and #334 in average defensive possession length. Their defensive possession length rankings show that both teams make their opponents work offensively and take most of the shot clock before taking a shot. In addition, Cincinnati has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing teams to score just 59.6 points per game. They are ranked #7 nationally in opposing points per game and should make it hard for Dayton to score in the half court. Take the under here.

*Under 138.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at 138*