Parlays

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be kicking off their 2025-2026 by welcoming the Montreal Canadiens to town. Things will be different in Toronto this year as they will be without a key member of their team, Mitch Marner, who signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the off-season. Without Marner, the goal remains the same for the Leafs, Stanley Cup or bust. Their top-six forwards remain lethal with Auston Matthews and William Nylander, but their bottom-six group has been solidified with the additions of Nicolas Roy and Dakota Joshua. I’m expecting another dominant season from the Leafs.

The Montreal Canadiens showed some promise and a step in the right direction as they found their way into a wildcard playoff spot. This team is going to be tough to play against this year as they have mostly the same roster and will be getting a full season out of rookie sensation Ivan Demidov. I still believe the Leafs have the edge on them offensively and in net. The Leafs will come out flying for their home opener as they look to get off to a good start. I will take the Leafs to get this one done at home.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction: Leafs ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Calgary Flames hit the road on Alberta Route 2 for the Northlands to face the Edmonton Oilers in the latest installment of their provincial rivalry. This one has the added bonus of being the regular-season opener, too. Calgary picked up a 4-1 win in Edmonton last season as a heavy underdog (+210) on Oct. 13, 2024, and the road team won two of the three meetings, with the only home win going to the Oilers in a 3-2 OT victory in the most recent battle on March 29. Edmonton has won seven of the past nine in the series, but in the past 10 games since Oct. 15, 2022, four of the games have been decided by a single goal, while the underdog has won outright five times.

The Oilers made big news this week, agreeing to terms on a two-year extension with superstar Connor McDavid. The defending Western Conference champs are hoping to avoid a slow start which plagued them last season. The Flames are simply trying to get back to the postseason, which they fell just short of doing last season. While these teams certainly have much different goals, talent and previous records go out the window when the Battle of Alberta occurs. It’s a coin-flip kind of a game. We’ll concede Edmonton is likely to get the two points, but take the Flames on the puck line as underdogs, as Calgary tends to play its best against Edmonton.

Flames vs Oilers prediction: Flames +1.5 (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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The Vegas Golden Knights open their 2025-26 season with a home tilt against the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday night. It’s only the first game of the season, but the Golden Knights have a big scheduling advantage over the Kings in this one. Los Angeles plays on Tuesday night against Colorado and then heads to Vegas to face the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Back-to-back games against 2 of the top teams in the Western Conference with travel in-between is a tough draw to start the season for LA. Fatigue most likely won’t be an issue this early in the season, but that’s a wild 1-2 punch to open the new campaign.

Wednesday’s matchup will be the VGK debut for newcomer Mitch Marner, who signed an 8-year, $96 million contract in a sign-and-trade with Vegas. Marner is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league, and he figures to fit in nicely with the Golden Knights. He is slated to start on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev. Vegas possesses arguably the best forward depth in the league, which gives Los Angeles a lot to worry about. It’s also worth noting that Vegas could be going up against Los Angeles backup goaltender Anton Forsberg, as Darcy Kuemper is projected to start between the pipes against Colorado on Wednesday. All things considered, back Vegas to win this one in regulation.

Kings vs Golden Knights prediction: Golden Knights 3-Way ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Missouri State hits the road for their first conference road game. The Bears have alternated loss and wins in the first five games, while going 1-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in its first two road games. The first game was a 73-13 loss at USC, failing to come close as a 35.5-point underdog, while winning outright as a 7-point underdog in a 21-20 win at Marshall on Sept. 6. The Bears are 3-1 ATS in the past four games, while cashing the Under in each of those outings. That’s worth filing away for a same-game parlay (SGP). The Bears have scored 22 or fewer points in four of five games, while allowing 28 or fewer points in the past four since that 73-point debacle against the Trojans.

Middle Tennessee started the season with a 34-14 loss at home against FCS Austin Peay despite being a 15-point favorite as the Under (53.5) cashed, and the Blue Raiders are a dismal 1-4 ATS. The only exception was a stunning 14-13 road win at Nevada as a 9-point underdog as the Under cashed. The Blue Raiders are 0-2 SU/ATS in two home games, and it suffered a 24-16 loss at Kennesaw State in the league opener last time out on Sept. 27 as the Under (53.5) came through. Take Missouri State laying the points for your best bet, but take the Under, too, as part of an SGP.

Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction: Missouri State -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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The Liberty Flames hit the road for a Conference USA battle against the UTEP Miners, and somebody is going to walk away with their second victory of the season. Liberty is missing QB Kaidon Salter, who took his talents to Colorado via the transfer portal. It’s been a work in progress, as QB Ethan Vasko has struggled a bit, after doing a good job at Coastal Carolina in the past, and now he is nursing a shoulder or neck injury. He has completed just 57.3% of his passes for 763 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions across four games. The star of the offense is RB Evan Dickens, who has 344 yards and two scores with 5.3 yards per attempt. QB Michael Merdinger started against Old Dominion, falling 21-7 at Old Dominion, but they did cash as 14.5-point underdogs for the first time in five outings. The Under has cashed in three in a row, and four of five this season.

UTEP has struggled to score points, going for 16 or fewer points in three of five games, while scoring 25 or fewer points in all four games against FBS opponents. UTEP’s only win came against UT-Martin, an FCS team, on Sept. 6. The Miners are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in four games against FBS opponents. The Under is 3-2 on the season, including a 30-11 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA opener. Let’s go low, as Liberty has a backup QB, and neither team has been able to put up consistent points.

Liberty vs UTEP prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs meet the Kennesaw State Owls at Fifth Third Bank Stadium in Kennesaw, Georgia in a Conference USA battle on Thursday night. Louisiana Tech has been on fire, winning four of five games this season, including conference wins over New Mexico State and UTEP. The Bulldogs offense has caught fire, posting 30 or more points in each of the past three outings, but the defense has done its job. It has allowed 23 or fewer points in all five games, including its only loss to LSU on Sept. 6, a 23-7 setback. Louisiana Tech is 5-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Under has cashed in four of five outings.

For Kennesaw State, it is looking to avenge a 33-0 loss in last season’s meeting in late November. The Owls opened with consecutive losses to Wake Forest and Indiana, two Power 4 conference teams, before bouncing back with three straight wins over Merrimack, Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee. The Owls have covered the past two games, while the Under is on a 4-1 run. The Owls have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of five games, with the lone exception a 56-9 loss at Indiana, which is ranked inside the Top 10. Kennesaw State is averaging 26.3 PPG in three games against non-Power 4 teams, while allowing 16.7 PPG. Let’s go low on the total in this Conference USA clash for the top spot.

Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State prediction: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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Following a mutual Week 6 bye, the East Carolina Pirates travel to New Orleans to take on the Tulane Green Wave. Both of these teams are tied at 1-0 in the American Athletic Conference, but Tulane’s overall record is 1 game better than East Carolina’s 3-2 mark. Oddly enough, it is ECU that is 4-1 when you consider the ATS metrics, while Tulane is 3-2.

By the numbers, Tulane has played a harder strength of schedule than ECU by nearly 50 spots in ESPN and Sagarin’s rankings, but I don’t see it that way. Duke and Northwestern aren’t much better than NC State, if at all, while Coastal and Army are in a similar tier as South Alabama and Tulsa. The biggest difference is ECU’s win over FCS Campbell, as Tulane hasn’t played an FCS opponent. It all ultimately evens out, as both teams were decisively defeated by the best opponents on their schedule to this point when ECU lost at home to BYU and Tulane lost at Ole Miss. For what it’s worth, the BYU-ECU game felt closer than the score indicates, while it never felt like Tulane had a chance against Ole Miss. Not really an apples-to-apples comparison, but interesting to note considering BYU is better than Ole Miss in multiple advanced defensive metrics like yards per play, PPA per play, havoc generated, and standard down PPA.

My power ratings suggest that Tulane should be giving closer to a field goal in this game rather than a touchdown, which stands out even more to me when considering the Pirates are 6-1 ATS as conference road dogs of at least 4 points since the start of the 2021 season – Blake Harrell’s first full season as ECU’s defensive coordinator. Now the head coach, Harrell’s squad is top 50 nationally in every advanced defensive metric I evaluate weekly, including 11th in havoc generated, 16th in points allowed per quality drive, 36th in opposing PPA per play and 37th in standard downs PPA. Look for ECU’s defense to be the primary catalyst in the Pirates keeping this game close on the road. If QB Katin Houser is able to limit turnovers, the Pirates may even have a chance to win this one outright. Give me the points with ECU.

East Carolina vs Tulane prediction: East Carolina +7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6. 

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We have a pretty important showdown in the Sun Belt on Thursday as Southern Miss will take on the Georgia Southern in a game that has a unique flavor to it compared to most games between Group of 5 sides this week. For starters, this is a pretty solid situational spot for Souther Miss. In fact, the unique makeup of the Golden Eagles gives this team a bit of a revenge angle on Saturday, as head coach Charles Huff had his Marshall team ahead by 3 scores in the 4th quarter of last season’s matchup in Statesboro, before the hosts scored 4 times in the final 6 minutes to steal the game and hand Marshall backers a terrible beat in the process. This game isn’t just personal for Huff, it’s a major prove-it spot for the entire team, as a large chunk of this roster was at Marshall a season ago and will certainly have that game in mind this week.

Huff and this staff should have a good idea of how to defend this Georgia Southern scheme, as the Eagles had registered just 3 points over more than 3 quarters of football prior to the flurry of scores in the final minutes of last year’s contest. Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton had an excellent game in this exact matchup a year ago, throwing for 2 touchdowns and completing 75% of his throws before getting injured in the second half, which ultimately led to the Eagles comeback. Braxton leads a Southern Miss offense into this game that continues to be a decent Sun Belt unit (30th in quality drive rate), and they should see plenty of success against a Georgia Southern defense that is 132nd in success rate allowed, 131st in points per drive allowed and 120th in 3rd and 4th down success rate.  It’s not like the Eagles have been the most successful offense either, as Georgia Southern sits at 95th in passing success rate and 112th in EPA per dropback, which is the way that most teams have been able to score on Southern Miss to this point. At a field goal or better, I’m certainly looking to lay the points with the short road favorites in a clear revenge spot on Thursday.

Southern Miss vs Georgia Southern prediction: Southern Miss -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3. 

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One of the biggest games of the weekend in terms of the College Football Playoff picture will take place on Friday, as the South Florida Bulls will take on the North Texas Mean Green in Denton, Texas. These teams appear to be in the top tier of the AAC, along with Tulane and Memphis, which makes this a massively important contest in terms of conference standings and positioning in the CFP race. And while South Florida made all of the early headlines following its wins over Boise State and Florida to open the campaign, this is a game where I’m very optimistic in the chances of the home side to make some noise on a national stage.

There’s no doubt that South Florida has been impressive to this point, as quarterback Byrum Brown has remained healthy through the first 6 weeks of the season, a stark contrast to what we saw a season ago. Additionally, the influx of talent on this roster has proven to be a real difference maker for Alex Golesh’s team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. However, despite the fact that Brown has been able to remain healthy, the South Florida offense has been underwhelming on a down-to-down basis in recent weeks. In fact, for the season, the Bulls are just 98th in success rate, 89th in points per drive and 72nd in EPA per play. They’ll be in for a tough task against a North Texas defense that is 21st in passing success rate allowed, 25th in EPA per rush and 9th in Early Downs EPA per CFB-Graphs.

On the other side of the ball, the Mean Green are led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who has tossed 11 touchdowns without turning the ball over to this point. Mestemaker leads a North Texas offense that is inside the top 20 in a variety of metrics, including success rate, along with sitting inside the top 10 in points per drive, EPA per rush and quality drive rate. South Florida’s defense is certainly improved, but this is still a unit that ranks outside the top 70 in success rate, while sitting at 63rd in quality drive rate and 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. There’s lots to like about both teams in this game, but North Texas feels like the slightly stronger side for my money, particularly on offense. Let’s take the Mean Green as short home underdogs in this pivotal AAC clash. 

USF vs North Texas prediction: North Texas ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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At 9:00pm ET on Friday night, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will take on the Washington Huskies as the sun sets over Husky Stadium in Seattle. Despite being 3-2 overall, Rutgers is 0-2 in the Big Ten with losses to Iowa and Minnesota, looking to get its first conference win of the season after a bye in Week 6. Meanwhile, Washington is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in conference after a comeback win at Maryland last week. The Huskies trailed 20-3 heading into the fourth quarter against the Terrapins, but rattled off 21 unanswered points to earn the 24-20 win. Washington’s slow start can be attributed to the cross-country travel off a tough home loss to Ohio State, but is a cause for concern in future road games at Michigan and Wisconsin.

Both of these teams are propelled by their respective offenses, which should be no different in this matchup. Rutgers has scored at least 28 points in every game this season – including both of its losses – and while Washington’s offense was clearly overmatched by Ohio State, the Huskies showcased the same big-play ability in the fourth quarter against Maryland as they did in their first 3 games. Returning home to play a Rutgers defense that sits 78th in PPA per play, 94th in third-down conversion rate, 98th in points allowed per quality drive, 119th in havoc generated and 125th in yards per play allowed should lead to plenty of points for the Huskies. 

Following a bye week, I’m expecting Rutgers to put points on the board, as well – especially against what could be a heavy-legged defense after cross-country travel back from Maryland. Athan Kaliakmanis has been one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten, throwing to the most underrated wide receiver group in the conference. Together, Scarlet Knights are top 35 in standard downs PPA, PPA per pass and third-down conversion rate, which should lead to plenty of sustained drives capped off with points against a Washington stop-unit that is 88th in PPA per pass, 109th in third-down conversion rate and 134th in points allowed per quality drive. Look for points in bunches here. Take the over. 

Rutgers vs Washington prediction: Over 59.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5 (-110). 

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We have Mountain West action on Friday night as the Fresno State Bulldogs face the Colorado State Rams. The Bulldogs sit atop the conference standings at the moment, with 2 conference wins and a 5-1 overall record. They have done a good job of beating the teams they are supposed to beat, and their only loss came at the hands of Kansas in the season opener. The Rams, on the other hand, are struggling in the first half of the season, playing to a 1-4 mark thus far. Their most recent outing was a 45-24 loss at San Diego State. While I do expect that Fresno will win this game, I think the best play in this game is the game total under 47.5.

Fresno State is a defensive-oriented team under new head coach Matt Entz. He has been a defensive specialist in his career, and while he does not yet have a lot of top end talent at Fresno, his defensive scheming has elevated this team in the early part of the season. The defense should control this game, especially against a Colorado State team that is offensively limited. The Rams struggle to generate much on offense, especially through the air, and I think points will be at a premium for them. Fresno State is comfortable playing tight, low-scoring games, and I expect that sort of thing here. A score in the low 20s is what I am anticipating.

Fresno State vs Colorado State prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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