Parlays

Sunday afternoon begins with a Big East clash, and we are here with a UConn Huskies vs St. John’s Red Storm prediction. The Huskies were expected to be the class of the Big East, but it has turned out to be Rick Pitino’s squad atop the conference instead. With a comfortable 2-game lead with 4 games to play, the Johnnies are feeling pretty good right now. When these two teams met earlier in the month, St. John’s won at UConn, 68-62. I love that we are only having to cover -4.5 when the game shifts to New York, and I am happy to play that as a Sunday best bet.

Breaking down the first matchup is key here. Seemingly everything went the way UConn wanted it, and the Johnnies won by 6 anyway. UConn is a methodical pace of play team; the game was played in the 60s. UConn defends the 3 well, and St. John’s doesn’t shoot the deep ball well; St. John’s only made 4 triples in that game. UConn outrebounded St. John’s 41-27, far more lopsided than the metrics would expect. The Huskies shot more free throws, made more 3s, and blocked more shots. The only thing that went in St. John’s favor was the turnover battle, which was 18-6, and not surprising given the Red Storm’s ball security. Everything went the way of UConn, and St. John’s won by 6. Now the game shifts to New York where the Johnnies are a perfect 16-0 on the year, and they have won 12 of their last 13 in general. This screams Red Storm all the way. I am even happy to lay the points here. Give me Pitino’s bunch for the win.

UConn vs St. John’s Prediction: St. John’s -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the most intriguing games on the Sunday college basketball slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana where the Hoosiers will host the Purdue Boilermakers in a key Big Ten clash. Having dropped 6 of their last 7 games, the Hoosiers are certainly on the outside of the bubble looking in. Their tournament hopes are not totally dead yet, but it’s going to require a massive run to get them on the right side of the bubble – starting on Sunday when they host their arch-rivals at home. The first game in this great rivalry came down to the wire, but Purdue was ultimately able to secure a win at Mackey Arena. Now, with the Boilermakers heading into this game on a bit of a cold streak, I suspect that most will be looking to back Indiana in a must-win game at home. However, I’m more inclined to back the visitors in this contest. 

Fresh off a pair of demoralizing losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State, this Purdue team appears to be pretty vulnerable at the moment. However, Matt Painter’s side does have some clear advantages in this matchup, most notably on offense. Indiana’s defense is outside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency since the start of the calendar year, and Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn should have a big day on Sunday. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to stretch the floor should draw the likes of Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau out of the paint, which should set up easy looks for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the rest of the Boilermakers offense. On the other side, Indiana’s offense has a major turnover problem and the Hoosiers are also outside the top 250 in 3-point percentage since the start of conference play. I don’t foresee Indiana having the same level of success as Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the step-down in competition should also do wonders for this Purdue team. Even in a heated rivalry matchup, I’ll lay the points with the road team.

Purdue vs Indiana prediction: Purdue -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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One of the best situational spots of the weekend comes in the Big Ten, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are hitting the west coast for a date in Southern California with the UCLA Bruins on Sunday. While the metrics would tell you that Ohio State is a top 40 team this season, that hasn’t stopped the Buckeyes from feeling like a roller coaster of a team throughout conference play. That hasn’t changed in recent games, as Ohio State lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in which it played up to the level of competition, only to follow that up with a disastrous home loss to Northwestern as a double-digit favorite. Now, the Buckeyes have to travel across the country and play a game less than 72 hours removed from that defeat, against a UCLA team that is coming off a disastrous loss to Minnesota at home on Tuesday. It’s safe to say that practice probably hasn’t been very fun this week for Mick Cronin’s team, and we can expect a big response from what should be a motivated Bruins side in this one.

It goes without saying that Big Ten teams traveling to the west coast this season have experienced issues in the first game of these often two-game road trips. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday, as Ohio State has been a team that’s struggled mightily away from home this season. The Buckeyes have also experienced major issues with turning the ball over in conference play, ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate. That spells trouble against a UCLA team that makes its money on the defensive end by speeding up opposing offenses, forcing turnovers and turning those turnovers into points on the other end. On the other side, UCLA is certainly due for some positive regression as well, with the Bruins offense sitting outside the top 250 in 2-point and 3-point percentage over the last couple of weeks, despite generating consistently solid looks. Ohio State is also 315th in free throw rate allowed over the last month (Barttorvik), so we can expect the Bruins to still grind out possessions and get to the line if things break down in the halfcourt. All things considered, let’s lay the points with the home team out west.

Ohio State vs UCLA prediction: UCLA -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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The Clippers are off to a rocky 1-1 start to their 8-game road trip, on Sunday they have a tough match-up vs Indiana as they look to get revenge for a 7-point defeat suffered earlier in the month in LA. They might be without Norman Powell and Kawhi Leonard here though, which would be a massive handicap. In order to beat this Indiana team you need scoring, we all know how much Powell’s ascent has contributed to the success of the Clippers this year. The Clippers are 4 point underdogs here, understandable considering they’re just 2-4 ATS/SU in the last 6 meetings and have covered the spread just twice in 8 games overall.

Meanwhile, Indiana has been playing at a high level for quite a while now, winning 15 of their last 20 games and climbing all the way up to 4th in the East. With the Bucks and Pistons both on win streak behind them, pressure is on Indy to continue winning if they want to keep hold of the 4th seed. From a health standpoint they are doing much better than the Clippers here with their two main stars Siakam and Haliburton both being healthy and producing. We just saw Indy beat a strong Memphis team without much trouble in their first game after the break, knocking down 17 threes in that game. LA is a much better team defensively though, so I doubt we’ll see them scoring 50 in a quarter like they did on the Grizz.

I just feel like the defense of the Clippers gives them the edge here. We were all surprised when Indiana won that first meeting in LA. Rebounding is another area where the Clippers should dominate, Indiana ranks only 28th in rebounds per game. That’s bad news going up against Ivica Zubac who has elevated his game quite a bit this season. I’m taking the Clippers to even out the regular season series here.

Clippers vs Pacers Predictions: Clippers +4 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

With 5 wins in 6 games the Mavericks have eased the pressure a bit coming from those that are doubting their ability to make it into the postseason, considering the injury situation. Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford could all potentially miss Sunday’s game vs Golden State, but that hasn’t hindered the Mavs as much as people thought it would. Kyrie Irving is showing true leadership averaging 28.3 points per game over his last 8 outings, he’s had some pretty big games vs Golden State this season shooting the ball 57% from the field and almost 53% from three in 3 games. With so many big men out of the line-up, you’d think that rebounding would be a problem here for Dallas, but they are facing a Warriors squad that is averaging just 49.7 rebounds per game in their last 3 outings which is the 4th lowest mark in the NBA.

Implementing Jimmy Butler has gone seamlessly so far through 5 games with the Warriors winning 4 of them. Jimmy has already developed chemistry with most of the Warriors starters, while also raising the level of tenacity of the entire team on the defensive end. He is exactly what this Warriors team needed, as they look to make one final push towards a tittle challenge with Stephen Curry as their best player. Draymond Green even promised a championship during all-star weekend, which only shows how serious this team is. Will all that translate into success vs Dallas? It’s hard to say. The Warriors have covered just twice in 10 meetings and have only 2 wins in the last 7 games head-to-head.

Backing the Mavs to cover has yielded profit in 7 straight games, injuries have not been able to slow this team down. They just beat these Warriors by 4 points in a game played 10 days ago and now they’re 8.5 point dogs? I’ll have some of that action please. Back the Mavericks to cover.

Mavericks vs Warriors Predictions: Mavericks +8.5 is available at time publishing. Playable at that number.

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing and Sunday’s card features a couple of compelling matchups, including the Oklahoma City Thunder facing off against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ordinarily, I would look to back the Timberwolves at home as three-possession underdogs, especially considering the Thunder are off a blowout win over the Utah Jazz on Friday and have won 8 of their last 10 games. It also helps that Minnesota just thoroughly outplayed Oklahoma City in the final game before the All-Star break, giving the Thunder a nice revenge angle from a disappointing game that should be fresh in the minds of every player on the roster. Even though Minnesota has been playing better basketball of late, I still want no part of stepping in front of the best team in the Western Conference in this spot. My decision has been made easier by the fact that Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are expected to miss this game, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if this line got to double digits by tip-off. 

It didn’t feel like the prettiest game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Friday against Utah, and he still managed to finish with 21 points and 8 assists on nearly 50% from the field. There is room for that performance to be replicated against a Minnesota defensive scheme that will be happy to play some drop coverage without Gobert’s rim protection, which should allow Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Oklahoma City guards to take lightly contested midrange shots from inside of 15 feet. On the other side, the elite Thunder defense could have a field day against a Wolves team that doesn’t shoot the ball well, is 25th in turnover percentage and 26th in pace for the season. I don’t doubt that the Timberwolves will try and limit the number of transition opportunities for Oklahoma City in this game, but the Thunder are still an outstanding halfcourt unit on both ends of the floor, and they should feel extremely comfortable operating at a slower pace in this one. Oklahoma City is covering the spread at nearly a 64% clip as a road favorite, while the Thunder are also covering the number at just over a 73% clip with equal rest. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Oklahoma City played a focused, consistent game and won by margin on the road in this spot.  

Oklahoma City vs Minnesota prediction: Thunder -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5

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