Parlays

The Cleveland Guardians are a superior organization to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and today I think they find a win to jump start their weekend series. Both teams are in similarly small markets, but Cleveland does a better job of developing pitching talent and making the most of their complementary moves. An example of how they operate was seen this offseason when they acquired Luis Ortiz from these very same Pirates. Ortiz has shown a mixed bag of results so far with Cleveland, but he should be fired up to face the team that just traded him away. After 7 earned runs allowed in his team debut against San Diego, Ortiz has improved his performance with 6 innings of 3-run ball against the Angels and 5.2 innings of 1-run ball with 10 strikeouts against the Royals. He should pitch decently well in this spot against a Pirates lineup with the 3rd lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching so far.

Carmen Mlodzinski has been stretched out into a starting role this season after 70 relief appearances combined in the past 2 seasons. He has been used as an opener in the past but is now looking to give his team 5 innings each time he takes the mound. The right-hander has seen as many as 22 batters faced so far, but 2 walks issued in each start along with 17 hits allowed in his 13 innings has resulted in more base traffic than desired. Mlodzinski has pitched better than his current ERA of 6.23, but I still prefer Ortiz in this spot considering the lineups they will face.

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions: Guardians ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.

In this game we will see the Cincinnati Reds travel to take on the Baltimore Orioles. The Reds are coming off a hard-fought series against the Seattle Mariners. In this series, the Reds totaled 29 hits and 18 runs, but managed to lose 2 out of 3 games. The Orioles are coming off a series against the Cleveland Guardians. In that series the Orioles totaled 22 hits and 18 runs and won 2 out of 3 games in the series.

Looking at today’s game, we will see Andrew Abbott as pitcher for the Reds and Cade Povich for the Orioles. Abbott has only started 1 game where he pitched 5 innings giving up 1 run on 2 hits against the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was a great start to the season for Abbott who is looking to improve on his 3.72 ERA from last season. Povich has pitched a total of 15 innings giving up 9 runs on 24 hits. Povich currently holds a 3.60 ERA through those games, which is a significant improvement from his 5.20 ERA from last year. Looking at these numbers, it is shocking that Povich has managed to give up so few runs when he is averaging 1.6 hits per inning.

Some of the interesting data around this game comes from the past 7 days. Looking at the past week, the Reds hold a batting average of .231 with 32 runs on 43 hits. The Orioles have a .216 batting average with 29 runs on 35 hits in the last 7 days. Given the luck of Povich, the Orioles recent form, and the Reds holding the 3rd best ERA in the MLB, this may be another positive game for Abbott and the bullpen after they struggled in the previous series. Let’s roll with the Reds to get back in winning form.

Reds vs. Orioles Prediction: Reds ML (+135) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After a travel day, the Dodgers will look to keep things rolling as they get ready to take on the Texas Rangers. The Dodgers are coming off a series sweep against the Rockies, and the same can be said about the Rangers against the Angels. Texas has been nearly unbeatable at home, riding a nine-game winning streak since their one home loss on Opening Day to the Red Sox. Both teams are playing exceptionally well as of late, but I think the Dodgers have the edge in this matchup and here’s why. 

Taking the mound for the Dodgers will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto who is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA this season. In his last start against the Cubs he pitched six scoreless innings while striking out nine. For the Rangers, Jacob deGrom will get the start as he looks for his first win on the season. deGrom is 0-0 with a 4.30 ERA this year and in his last start he gave up three earned runs in four innings pitched against the Mariners. When you look at this pitching matchup, the Dodgers have the clear advantage with Yamamoto on the mound. Looking at these two teams’ offense, the Dodgers have the advantage there, too. The Dodgers are batting .238 on the season with 34 homers and averaging 4.7 runs per game. For the Rangers, they’re batting .225 on the season with 20 homers and averaging 3.3 runs per game. The Dodgers are loaded with players like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Tommy Edman who are more than capable of taking deGrom deep in this game. Looking back at Yamamoto’s last start, he pitched a gem against the Cubs, who are a much better hitting team than the Rangers. The Dodgers should have no issues taking care of business tonight against deGrom and the Rangers, making the Dodgers moneyline my best bet of the day. 

Dodgers vs Rangers prediction: Dodgers ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Miami surprised a lot of people by not just winning their play-in game against Chicago, but in the manner in which they did so. They held one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA to just 90 points and under 40% shooting from the field and just 27% from three. That performance reminded us of the good old days when the Heat were a tough nut to crack on defense. I expect a similar approach in Friday’s game against Atlanta, especially against star player Trae Young, whom the Heat have been able to contain fairly well over the past 5 meetings. The 2 teams did split the 4 regular-season meetings, but the Heat won the 2 most recent ones by double digits.

Scoring just 95 points against the Magic was a huge disappointment for the Hawks, who once again were exposed on the defensive end. It’s no secret that Young is a defensive liability, and Cole Anthony came off the bench for Orlando and with a couple of others went at Young relentlessly, which just added to the frustration of the Hawks star. Atlanta also allowed 58 points in the paint in the loss, which isn’t a good look going up against Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 21.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game over his last 10 outings. Atlanta did finish the year with a positive record at home and that’ll be the one thing they’ll be relying on in Friday’s game.

I hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, but I was really impressed by what the Heat showed on Wednesday. Apart from Young, Atlanta is lacking the necessary experience in big moments. The Heat have already been in situations like this before, so even though they are on the road here I give them a slight edge in this win-or-go-home matchup.

Heat vs Hawks prediction: Heat +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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While this will be the 5th meeting of the season between the Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies, they have yet to face off with the current make up of their rosters. While the teams did play each other post Luka Doncic trade, key players like Anthony Davis did not take to the floor. Now that he will be playing tonight, both teams seem incredibly well equipped to make scoring at the rim tough on their opponents. Over the last 10 games of the regular season the Mavericks ranked in the top 10 in blocks per game thanks to the presence of Davis and Daniel Gafford, both elite shot blockers. The Grizzlies on the other hand have former defensive player of the year Jaren Jackson Jr. and the size of Zach Edey impacting their opposition, helping them rank 6th in opponent points in the paint during that stretch.

The Grizzlies closed out the last 10 games of the regular season ranking 4th in pace, undoubtedly thanks to the influence of Ja Morant. However, he is a game-time decision ahead of this contest due to an ankle injury. If he cannot play, expect for the pace to slow, and for the hosts offensive production to take a significant hit. Even if he can play, the ankle issue could really impact a player that relies heavily on his explosiveness. A lot of what happens in this game will depend on the availability of the Grizzlies star so it would be worth waiting for his status to be confirmed before making a pick. But considering he might not be at 100% either way, this could turn into a low scoring encounter considering the high stakes and the rim protection on both sides.

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction: Under 221 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.