Parlays

The Boston Red Sox continue to stay red-hot, winning six straight and eight of their last ten. Tonight, they’ll hand the ball to the left-hander Garrett Crochet, who enters with a 12-4 record, 2.23 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. In his last 5 starts, Crochet has been dominant, going 5-0 with a 2.81 ERA, and racking up 40 strikeouts in 32 innings. 

For the Royals, Ryan Bergert will make his debut for the Royals after being acquired from the Padres. Bergert transitioned into a starting role with San Diego, and on the season, he’s 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA. Bergert doesn’t typically go deep into games, so I expect the Red Sox to see the Royals bullpen early on. Kansas City is batting just .241 against lefties this year, and while they’ve been one of the hotter teams since the All-Star break, I expect Boston to roll with Crochet on the mound. The Red Sox are firing on all cylinders right and shouldn’t have too much trouble against Bergert or a Royals bullpen that holds a 3.71 ERA on the season. Look for Boston to stay red-hot, making the Red Sox my best bet of the day. 

Royals vs Red Sox prediction: Red Sox -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets continue on Tuesday night after Cleveland won in extra innings on Monday. That win was Cleveland’s first win in Queens as the Guardians, for whatever that is worth. The Mets should have secured that win, if not for a couple of unfortunate defensive miscues on their part and a couple of great plays from the Cleveland defense. We don’t usually quantify the defense in these betting previews, but it made the difference on Monday. The loss continued a rough stretch for the Mets, who have now lost 6 of 7. Part of me wants to chase the Guardians at plus money to do it again on Tuesday, but this one should go the Mets’ way, making the home team my pick in this spot.

Cleveland will throw out Logan Allen in this one. Allen has been strong lately, and his last outing was a season-high 7 innings against the Rockies. But it was also a season-high 113 pitches, and I have my concerns about the start after that when a guy throws that many. The Mets will throw Clay Holmes. Holmes, a converted reliever, is showing some signs of innings fatigue at this point in the season, and his outings have been short lately. He hasn’t necessarily gotten hit hard, but capping him around 80 pitches might be important if they want him in the postseason. But if he gives the Mets 5 good innings, this bullpen should do the rest. The late inning combo of Rogers, Helsley, and Diaz is not going to cough up very many leads for the Metropolitans. Give me the Mets on Tuesday.

Guardians vs Mets Prediction: Mets ML (-160) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Diego Padres look to even up the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks with Yu Darvish (6.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) on the bump for the visitors. Darvish has had a shaky return to play this season, but looked incredible going 7.0 scoreless innings with 7 Ks and 2 hits allowed in his last start. Even at 38 years old, Darvish has quality stuff and is due for some serious positive regression based on his 3.82 xERA and .244 xBA. On the contrary, Arizona starter Ryne Nelson (3.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) has been drastically overperforming relative to his underlying numbers. His 4.06 xERA and .259 xBA along with a below-average strikeout rate and ground ball rate suggests Nelson’s better days are behind him.

Offensively, Arizona has been one of the best offenses when matched up against right-handed pitching over the long haul of the season. However, the snakes have entered somewhat of an offensive slump considering they are posting the 28th best wRC+ mark (77) in baseball over the last 14 days. Another contrast for this matchup, San Diego has been crushing it, posting a top-10 wRC+, wOBA and BA in the same aforementioned time period. With all things considered, I’m taking the Padres to come away with the win in this spot.

Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction: San Diego ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -140.

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