College Basketball Parlays

The biggest game on the college basketball Wednesday night card takes place in College Park, Maryland where the Michigan State Spartans will take on the Maryland Terrapins in a heated Big Ten matchup. This game has significant implications at the top of the conference standings, with the Spartans currently holding a tiebreaker edge over in-state rival Michigan for first place in the Big Ten regular-season chase. From a situational perspective, I definitely side with Maryland at home in this game, especially considering what the Spartans have dealt with over the past few weeks. Over the last 6 games, Michigan State has played close contests against UCLA, Oregon, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan, and the Spartans still have Wisconsin on deck this weekend. This will be the 4th game in an 11-day span for Michigan State as well, so fatigue could come into play once we hit the 2nd half.

As for the hosts, Maryland has had 6 days off following an easy win over USC at home, so the Terps will have had plenty of time to prepare for Michigan State. The Spartans were pretty fortunate to get poor three-point shooting performances from the likes of Illinois, Purdue and Michigan in its recent victories over those squads. Considering that Maryland is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, I wouldn’t expect the Spartans to get this fortunate once again on Wednesday. In fact, while Michigan State’s defense is solid, the Spartans don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (222nd in turnover percentage) and they allow a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (333rd in three-point rate allowed). It’s important to note that teams are likely due for some positive regression in the three-point shooting department against Tom Izzo’s team, with the Spartans sitting at 5th in tjree-point percentage allowed, despite allowing plenty of open looks each game. With that in mind, the Terrapins should be able to cash in on some of those wide-open looks, while also attacking the passing lanes and exploiting some of the flaws in this Michigan State defense. All things considered, I’ll lay the short number with the home team in this Big Ten game.

Michigan State vs Maryland prediction: Maryland -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Ole Miss’ conference schedule has been a roller coaster. The Rebels (19-8) started SEC play 4-0 before losing 4 of their next 5. They got back on track with a 3-game winning streak over Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina, but find themselves in the midst of another losing streak as they travel to Auburn to play the Tigers (25-2) – who have won 4 in a row after their home loss to Florida. These teams played once already this year, and Auburn controlled that game pretty much from beginning to end. The Tigers scored 1.31 points per possession in Oxford, and each of their starters scored at least 10 points in the win.

Despite their 4-game winning streak, the Tigers have failed to cover at home in 3 straight outings, largely because they haven’t shot well from the perimeter at the Jungle of late. In fact, they connected on just 17 of 68 (25%) three-point attempts in those games, which is well below their season average. Their poor offensive showing cost them the game against Florida, but they managed to beat Arkansas and Georgia despite not covering the double-digit spreads. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for the Tigers, and because they will be matched up against a defense they have already seen and succeeded against earlier this season, I like the Tigers to get back on track offensively on Wednesday night – specifically from the perimeter. Ole Miss gives up a healthy amount of threes, ranking 312th nationally in opposing 3-point rate. Moreover, the Rebels have regressed defensively in recent weeks. They are in the 30th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics) and rank 265th in opposing effective field goal percentage since February 1 (Bart Torvik). They also have failed to cover in their last 3 games as underdogs. Lay it with Auburn.

Ole Miss vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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This should be a tense SEC battle as both teams are currently tied in 11th place, but only one team will emerge victorious and move their way up in the standings after tonight’s matchup.  Both Texas and Arkansas are 5-9 in conference play and also have an identical overall record of 16-11.  The last time these two teams met, Arkansas defeated the Longhorns on their home court 78-70, and tonight, Texas will be looking for revenge as they know the NCAA Tournament committee will be taking everything into consideration with only a few games left of the regular season.  

I believe Arkansas has a little bit more momentum than the Longhorns right now after pulling off a surprising 92-85 victory over Missouri.  Arkansas has won 2 of its last 5, but 3 of those losses came against Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn, all top-10 teams, and Arkansas was within striking distance in all of those matchups.  As for Texas, they had a solid victory over then No. 15 Kentucky, but they have lost 4 of their last 5, which includes a 84-69 loss to South Carolina on Saturday.  On the season, Texas is averaging 78.3 points per game while giving up 69.8, and Arkansas is averaging 76.1 points per game while giving up 69.4.  Both teams are similar on offense and defense, rebounding the ball and turnovers this season.  I believe Arkansas has been a little bit more consistent as of late, despite their losses, and Texas is trending in the wrong direction as the season comes near a close.  I think Arkansas has what it takes to cover the small spread.

Texas vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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