College Basketball Parlays

In one of the marquee matchups of the day, the Kentucky Wildcats (18-8) will head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (21-5). These teams met once already this season, and it was highly entertaining. The Tide went into Rupp Arena and scored 102 points in a 5-point victory, connecting on 13 of their 34 perimeter attempts. Kentucky lit it up too, as the Wildcats made 11 of their 27 3-point shots. This time around, Alabama enters this matchup on a 2-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been battling injuries to a majority of its back court. However, the ‘Cats managed to bounce back from a loss at Texas last week with a convincing home win against Vanderbilt despite not having Lamont Butler or Jaxson Robinson.

At the time of writing, Butler and Robinson are not expected to be back for this game. Butler went through some modified live sessions in practice on Friday per head coach Mark Pope, while Robinson worked on light skills drills on the side. That doesn’t sound like their return is imminent on Saturday. Butler and Robinson were huge assets for Kentucky in the first meeting against the Tide. Butler put up 17 points with 8 assists, 2 steals and 1 block, while Robinson stretched the floor with a trio of 3s on 7 attempts. Without their combined scoring and Butler’s perimeter defense this time around, I have a hard time seeing the ‘Cats hanging around for a full 40 minutes – especially against an Alabama team that is likely seething to snap its 2-game losing streak. 

Bolstered by 50 combined points per game from Mark Sears, Labaron Philon, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway, Alabama’s back court is simply too loaded for some fully healthy teams to hold down, let alone a team hampered with injuries to its back court like Kentucky. The Tide should be able to take full advantage of a Kentucky defense that is 318th in 3-point rate allowed while yielding more than 81 points per game on the road. In fact, Kentucky is probably due for a bit of 3-point regression defensively, and the same can be said for Alabama offensively. The Wildcats allow an average of 28.5 perimeter attempts per game on the road, which is 12th-most nationally. Fortunately for them, opponents have made only 28.8% of those attempts, which is 13th-lowest. Similarly, the Tide take 29 3-pointers per home game, which is top 15 nationally, yet they have made less than 30% of them to this point. Something has to give, and with the absences of Butler and Robinson combined with a potential motivational advantage for Alabama, I think it will be Kentucky’s back court that proves to be the weak link in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Kentucky is 349th nationally in Haslametric’s Away From Home, which makes sense given the 10% dip in the Wildcats’ effective field-goal percentage when not playing at Rupp. Expect a fully focused effort from the Tide in this one, as they could fall out of position for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament with a loss on Saturday.

Kentucky vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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The jewel of the late games on Saturday will be the BYU Cougars vs the Arizona Wildcats in a key Big 12 clash. If you aren’t paying close attention, you might be surprised to learn that BYU is suddenly one of the best teams in the country, checking in at 30th in KenPom and 20^th in Torvik’s rankings. They are fresh off a clobbering of Kansas, 91-57, and they have climbed up to fifth in the conference standings. They will have their work cut out for them to keep that going though, as the Arizona Wildcats sit in second place in the conference at 12-3. These teams played only a couple of short weeks ago, and Arizona took the game on the Cougars’ home court by a score of 85-74. I expect a very similar result in the rematch, and thus I am taking Arizona on the spread at -7.5.

The key to this game will be the 3-pt shooting of BYU. The Cougars live outside, and Arizona is not a great team at defending the 3. In the first meeting, BYU made a paltry 8 triples (compared to 14 in their blistering of Kansas this week), and they will need to hit more than that to compete on Saturday. I like this BYU team, and I think they are dangerous. Away from home, however, they are just not the same squad. They are 13-2 at home and only 3-5 on the road, and the McKale Center is one of the tougher environments they will play in. I don’t think Arizona will blow the Cougs out of the water, and this number is probably going to be pretty close to on target, but if I am playing this game on Saturday night, I lean Arizona to cover at home.

BYU vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Arguably the biggest game of the WCC regular season slate will take place on Saturday in the Pacific Northwest, as the Gonzaga Bulldogs will host the Saint Mary’s Gaels in what should be a heated battle between the top 2 teams in the conference. The first meeting between these teams back on February 1 won’t tell us everything, but it can be instructive as it relates to this matchup. In that game, Gonzaga closed as a 2.5-point favorite on the road and was in great position to win that game before ultimately falling short in the final minutes. With that in mind, the fact that we’re getting just a 2-point line adjustment for the flipping of home court is pretty disrespectful to a Bulldogs team that still profiles better than Saint Mary’s from a metrics perspective and has historically owned this series at the Kennel. 

It’s fair to assume that the Zags probably won’t turn in a paltry 3-of-17 (17.6%) performance from beyond the arc at home this time around, with many of those missing coming on wide open looks. On the other side, the Gaels (238th in free-throw rate) offense wasn’t overly efficient in that game — a sign that Mark Few’s team knows how to defend Saint Mary’s in the halfcourt — but they nearly doubled Gonzaga in free-throw attempts, while limiting the Bulldogs to just 7 fast break points. Gonzaga will likely go as far as its guards take them this season, and I’d expect the backcourt trio to be more aggressive in this game after combining for just 19 total shots in the first meeting. It all starts with one of the best point guards in the nation in Ryan Nembhard, but Nolan Hickman and Khalif Battle are also essential to the success of this offense, particularly in a matchup against an excellent defense like St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs also get a ton of points at the rim thanks to Graham Ike in the middle, and he dominated the post against Mitchell Saxon in the first meeting. If the Gaels are forced to collapse on the big man, there should be lanes for the Gonzaga guards to cut to the rim, or free themselves away from the help defense for wide open 3-point attempts. As long as the Bulldogs don’t turn in another horrific shooting performance, they should even the season series with their rivals at home.

Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga prediction: Gonzaga -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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