Ricky Dimon
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It all comes down to this. It’s a #4 seed facing a #5 seed in the National Championship, as the UConn Huskies battle the San Diego State Aztecs in hopes of winning the NCAA Tournament and cutting down the nets in Houston. The Huskies are considerable favorites, but the Aztecs have already defied long odds at least once during March Madness.
Below is my SGP for Monday’s national title game, and also be sure to check out our San Diego State vs UConn picks.
UConn -9.5 alternate spread (+110)
Andre Jackson Jr. to record 20+ points, rebounds and assists (+115)
Lamont Butler to score 10+ points (+125)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the some of the plan here, as Andre Jackson Jr. filling up the stat sheet would obviously work well with a big win for UConn. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing San Diego State’s Lamont Butler to score his fair share of points. But even if he does, there is no reason why the Huskies can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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UConn -9.5 alternate spread over San Diego State (+110)
UConn has won all 5 of its NCAA Tournament games by at least 13 points, easily covering the spread on every occasion. There is no reason why the double-digit beatdowns can’t continue. The Huskies have held their last 2 opponents (Gonzaga and Miami) – each having KenPom top-10 offenses – to their lowest point total of the season. San Diego State’s offense, which isn’t the strength of the squad, seems unlikely to score a whole lot in this matchup Now, can the Aztecs prevent the Huskies from scoring enough to make it a blowout? Maybe, because the SDSU defense is stellar. However, UConn’s offense is firing on all cylinders. Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo have been the focal points, but it has truly been a team effort. The Huskies are averaging more than 20 assists per game in the Big Dance, which is a great recipe for dissecting the Aztec defense. I’m expecting UConn to roll – again.
Andre Jackson Jr. to record 20+ points, rebounds and assists (+115)
Jackson has been doing it all for UConn. Even though he has reached double-figures in scoring only once during the NCAA Tournament, he has delivered at least 21 points + rebounds + assists in 4 of the 5 games. The only exception was in the Final Four against Miami, and that was because it was such a blowout that Jackson logged only 22 minutes (he played more than 30 in each of the first 4 contests). UConn figures to try speeding up San Diego State, too, because it knows the Aztecs have almost no chance of winning a shootout. More possessions means more statistics for everyone – especially a player like Johnson, who tends to fill up the box score equally across the board.
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Lamont Butler to score 10+ points (+125)
Butler hit an iconic buzzer-beater in the national semifinals against Florida Atlantic. That should only give him confidence – and he was already playing with a lot of it in the first place. The junior guard scored 12 points in the second round against Furman and 18 during his team’s Elite Eight victory over Creighton. Moreover, this should be a favorable matchup for him. Butler doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s and doesn’t finish at the rim a whole lot. He thrives in mid range, and that is pretty much the only place to beat UConn. Per Hoop-Math, the Huskies rank 21st in the nation in field-goal percentage defense at the rim and 15th in opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage. It would not be surprising at all to see Butler build on momentum and reach double-figures.
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