NBA Picks

After a close win earlier in the week, the Cavs are looking to eliminate Orlando on the road on Friday. They got the win in G5 without the services of center Jarrett Allen, who is still questionable as this is being written. You have to think they might try and close out the series without him, so stay tuned. They need some more scoring from lead guard Darius Garland if they are going to go far in the playoffs and I expect him to play well tonight. After a rough G4, forward Paulo Banchero dropped 39 points in the G5 loss the other night. He has been really good in his playoff debut, but it is obvious Orlando needs more around him. Guard Gary Harris was once again a no-show (no points) and that puts too much of a burden on Orlando up front. I do think the Magic will show some toughness in this game, win or lose. 

So far the home team has won every game in the series. They have been favored in every game too so it is not surprising that Orlando is favored even though they are facing elimination. I really like Cleveland to close out the series tonight though, even if Allen is not available. The fact that we are getting more than a possession makes them a strong play with the points too. Experience wins out, so let’s back the Cavs with confidence. 

Cavaliers +4 available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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So far the series has seen 3 unders and 2 overs through 5 games. During the season the overs were more successful though, going 3-1. The markets are saying this one will be a grinder as we have the lowest total yet of the series, just 200 points right now. It definitely feels like the first team to 100 points is gonna win and it will be a scrappy affair, even if Allen does not play. I think it gets a little loose late with Cleveland pulling away. Some free throws in the closing script will help too as Orlando tries to extend their season. Let’s get to the window with the over.

Over 200 available at publishing. Playable to 201.

Following Wednesday night’s 123-93 drubbing over the Clippers to take a 3-2 series lead, the Mavericks look to advance to the Western Conference semifinals with a series-clinching home win. After nearly mounting a 30-plus point comeback in their narrow 116-111 Game 4 loss, the Mavericks looked like the team who staged that second-half comeback on Wednesday night. As a result, Dallas sits as a relatively-moderate 7.5-point home favorite to end this series in six, and with their defense playing like it did in Game 5, there’s reason to believe Jason Kidd’s squad can record the win and cover.

The Mavericks’ marked improvement on the defensive end of the floor was displayed in Game 4, holding the Clippers to 37.9 percent shooting from the field and 25.7 percent from three. James Harden (7 points) and Paul George (15 points) got held in check as the duo can obviously ill-afford to have another off-shooting night with their season on the line. With Dallas’ offense being more consistent throughout this best-of-seven, back the home favorites to close things out with a multi-possession win to face the top-seeded Thunder in the next round.

Mavericks -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Although Dallas’s reliable defense likely propels them to the Western Conference semifinals, there’s reason to expect a bounce-back offensive performance from the Clippers, making the over 207 (-110) our preferred play on the total. It’s hard to imagine both Harden and George having a second consecutive off-shooting night after they shot a combined 6-of-25 from the field.

Dallas’s multi-dimensional offense has a real chance to score 110-plus points for a third straight game, as their ability to get high-percentage looks at the rim while also spacing the floor figures to stress the Clippers’ defense over 48 minutes.

Over 207 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The second-seeded Nuggets and third-seeded Timberwolves kick off their Western Conference semifinal matchup with Denver sitting as slight 4.5-point home favorites. Despite the Nuggets holding serve at home in their opening-round win over the Lakers, winning all three home contests with a subpar 1-2 ATS record, the Timberwolves present a significantly more challenging task. A Timberwolves bunch that ended the regular season owning the Association’s No. 1 rated defense (108.4 defensive rating) held Kevin Durant and the Suns to less than 110 points in 3 of 4 games, suggesting they have the tools to limit the Nuggets’ offense.

While the Nuggets took care of the Lakers in 5 games, it wasn’t the most aesthetically pleasing of Gentleman’s Sweeps. Denver’s offense struggled from three-point range all series, hitting less than 31 percent of their triples while their interior defense allowed plenty of high-percentage looks. That simply won’t cut it against a much more potent Wolves bunch with legitimate offensive threats from all three levels.

Anthony Edwards has been practically unguardable this postseason, and his ability to threaten the Nuggets defense figures to give them the edge in this series. Back the road underdogs to stay within the current 4.5-point spread in Game 1.

Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +4 (-115).

A Timberwolves win could correlate with the game falling under the current total of 207.5. The league’s best defense has the potential to limit Nikola Jokic’s and Jamal Murray’s effectiveness offensively. It’s worth noting that in their four regular-season head-to-head matchups, where both teams split the series 2-2, the under hit in both Timberwolves victories.

Conversely, both Nuggets victories went over the closing total. Bettors looking to back the underdogs should also consider the under, while Nuggets’ supporters should probably lean towards the over.

Under 207.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.