MLB Picks

As of the early evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers still have not decided on a pitcher for their series opener against the Colorado Rockies. Walker Buehler is taking the mound on Saturday, while Jack Flaherty worked Thursday’s 20-4 humiliation of the Miami Marlins. In between, the Dodgers may go with a bullpen game. It’s a testament to just how depleted their rotation is at the moment — and that has really been the story all year long.

Colorado knows exactly who is toeing the rubber tonight: Kyle Freeland. And to say that is good news for the visitors would be an understatement. Freeland’s season-long numbers (5-7, 4.89 ERA) are mediocre at best, but the left-hander has compiled a 2.00 ERA through 3 September outings and he also wrapped up August with 2 consecutive quality starts. In other words, his last 5 appearances have all been outstanding. The Dodgers may have used up all of their power during Thursday’s outburst, so don’t be shocked if Freeland fires another gem. Let’s take a flier on the Rockies as huge underdogs since L.A.’s pitching situation is in question.

Rockies vs Dodgers prediction: Colorado ML (+205) available at time of publishing. Playable to +200.

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It’s Friday afternoon at Wrigley. The temps are in the 80s, and the wind is blowing out at around 8-10 mph. That is all I need to know for my Nationals vs Cubs prediction on Friday. I’ll go ahead and type up a bunch of other reasons to play the Over if you want them, but it is warm and the wind is blowing out for an afternoon game in baseball’s most weather-sensitive park. Let’s hit that Over and have some fun.

On the mound are Trevor Williams and Jameson Taillon. Williams will be making his first start since landing on the IL in late May. He will be on a pitch count, and I don’t expect him to be crisp. Taillon has been great for his last 3 starts, turning in quality starts against Pittsburgh, the Yankees and at Colorado. We could say regression is due, or we could also note that he is a fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t usually pile up a lot of strikeouts and pitches to contact… and it is windy on Friday. Neither team has a lot to play for except reps and stats — the Nats have a lot of young guys who will play hard until the end of the season, and the Cubs have some veterans who know these stats count too. That sounds like guys who should still be swinging the bats with purpose, and maybe even a touch of selfishness. So yeah, all that to say that my Nationals vs Cubs prediction is for the game total to go Over 9. Let’s get our next-to-last Friday of baseball started right.

Nationals vs Cubs prediction: Over 9 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Tigers have battled back from several games behind in the standings to tie the Minnesota Twins for the final wild-card spot in the American League. With just a little over a week left in the regular season, each game’s outcome is crucial at the moment. Detroit just faced the Baltimore Orioles last week, taking 2 of the 3 games to win that series. They are now tasked with facing Baltimore again and today’s starting pitchers faced these lineups just last week. Keider Montero is not my favorite option that Detroit has to offer, but the right-hander did pitch very well against the Orioles with 5.0 scoreless frames in his last start. His start before that resulted in 9.0 innings of shutout baseball against the Rockies, and 5 of his last 6 starts have been very strong overall.

Baltimore is not in nearly as good of form as Detroit, as the young team is seemingly limping into the playoffs following its fast start to the season. This club hasn’t been quite the same for the last month or so and its on-field results have shown that to be true. The O’s are still extremely talented, including their starter today — Corbin Burnes. Burnes was a true Cy Young candidate through the first half of the season, but his performance has trailed off in the second half. He did pitch well against Detroit in his last start with 7.0 shutout innings, but I am not a fan of laying the ML price with Baltimore in this game. Look for Detroit to remain competitive and cover the run line.

Tigers vs Orioles prediction: Detroit +1.5 (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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For our Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, I am looking to the game total. It is cool, rainy, and the wind is blowing in tonight. Not only that, but we also have two teams that are approaching desperation mode with less than 10 games left to play. Boston still vaguely has a shot at a wildcard, but they probably need to sweep this weekend, and they need some help. The Twins have been run down by the red hot Tigers, and they will be in a dogfight with Detroit and Kansas City over the final week of the season. That tends to ratchet up the pressure and suppress the scoring, and that is what I am looking for on Friday. Thus, my Twins vs Red Sox prediction is under 9 runs.

In terms of pitching, I think there is a strong chance we get solid starts from both young arms. The Twins will start David Festa, who has shown flashes of brilliance, but has also struggled at times. He is a power arm that is facing a team that strikes out a lot though, which should work in his favor tonight. The Sox will turn to Richard Fitts, a rookie who will be making his third start on the season. He has yet to give up an earned run. Both guys are righties with reverse splits, meaning they have handled lefties better so far. That is important in this matchup because no one flips the lineup around for platoon advantage more than Minnesota and Boston. They will surely both stack up lefties tonight, but it might not be an advantage. For the under to hit though, we need both starters to be good. I don’t trust either of these bullpens, and I would like for them to be as lightly involved as possible. Still, I will play the under tonight under these circumstances and conditions.

Twins vs Red Sox prediction: Under 9 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Mets are one of the hottest teams in baseball since the all-star break and they currently hold a 2-game lead in the NL wild-card standings. It’s unlikely that they will be able to secure a NL East title, but that’s not a reason for them to take it easy against their division rivals. The Mets have scored 30 runs in their last 3 games, and they did it without Francisco Lindor. For today’s Phillies vs Mets prediction, the Mets will still be without Lindor — but they have a great chance of picking up another win.

It will be the battle of the lefties in New York as the Mets send David Peterson to the mound. He is 9-2 this season with a 2.85 ERA. The Phillies will counter with Cristopher Sanchez, who is 10-9 with a 3.24 ERA. Both teams have found success against lefties this year; the Phillies have an OPS of .791 and the Mets have an OPS of .776. In the last 7 days, the Mets are averaging 6.9 runs per game and the Phillies are at 3.6. The Mets have been playing better baseball of late, and I think they’ll get it done with Peterson on the mound at home against the Phillies. That makes NY on the money line my best bet of the day.  

Phillies vs Mets prediction: New York ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120. 

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The way Arizona is playing right now reminds me of how it finished last year’s season before heading all the way to the World Series, where it lost to the Rangers. It’s unlikely the Diamondbacks will catch the Dodgers in the NL West, but with 9 games left in the regular season they are doing everything they can to stay ahead of the red-hot Braves in the NL wild card. For today’s Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction, I’m leaning toward the streaking D-Backs.

Taking the mound for Arizona will be Zac Gallen, who is 12-6 this season with a 3.61 ERA. Since the all-star break, Gallen is 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA. Gallen will be making his second start in a row against the Brewers, and in his last start he went 5.0 innings while giving up 3 earned runs and struck out 7. The Brewers are countering with Colin Rea, who is 12-5 this season with a 4.14 ERA.  Earlier in the week Rea made a surprise bullpen appearance to face the Phillies, when he threw 2.2 innings and gave up zero runs. Today, Rea will be wearing a different hat and he’s tagged with the responsibility to try and shut down this D-Backs lineup. Arizona is one of the best hitting teams — if not the best — in all of baseball for the entire season. Unfortunately for Rea, this Arizona lineup is probably going to be too much for him to handle — making the D-Backs money line my best bet of the day.  

Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction: Arizona ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135. 

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