Golf Picks

In the city where the legendary Muhammad Ali was born, it’s Brooks Koepka who looks the best bet to win the PGA Championship as he bids to deliver another knockout blow in pursuit of a 6th Major title. Koepka has made this tournament his own in recent seasons, winning it in 2018 and 2019, finishing as a runner-up in 2021 and then regaining the Wanamaker Trophy with a brilliant display at Oak Hill a year ago, holding off Scheffler and Viktor Hovland in the process.

The 34-year-old Floridian went into the Masters in moderate form on the LIV Tour and duly finished 45th but he’s knuckled down since, finishing 9th at LIV Adelaide before winning the Singapore event. As a 5-time Major champion, Koepka’s ability to cope with the pressure of the biggest stages is unrivalled and his long-game, featuring an ideal blend of driving distance and accuracy, makes him a great fit for Valhalla.

Jon Rahm is drifting out to betable odds – he’s been solid in his debut LIV season without winning an event – but Bryson DeChambeau is a more appealing option from the rebel circuit. DeChambeau finished 4th in last season’s PGA Championship before going on to win twice on the LIV Tour, then he started this season with results of 25-9-4-6-7 before finishing 6th at the Masters.

The 30-year-old, a US Open champion at Winged Foot in 2020, has underwhelmed in the 2 most recent LIV events but neither Adelaide or Singapore were ideal courses for his gung-ho style, which should be seen to much better use at Valhalla. DeChambeau also has several wins in states which border Kentucky, including on a Nicklaus design at the 2018 Memorial Tournament. He clearly relishes competing in this part of the United States.

Max Homa’s underwhelming Majors record took a significant turn in the right direction at the Masters, where he finished 3rd behind Scheffler having looked a Green Jacket contender heading into the back 9, and there’s every chance he builds on that this week. Homa struggled the week after the Masters, finishing 55th at the Heritage, but there was a lot to like about his return to action at Quail Hollow, where he finished in a share of 8th place. The 33-year-old, a 6-time winner of regulation PGA Tour events, is becoming increasingly comfortable in Major arenas.

No Englishman has won the PGA Championship since Jim Barnes claimed the first 2 in 1916 and 1919 – when the tournament was a matchplay competition – but Tommy Fleetwood has a chance of emulating his compatriot over a century later. The popular player was a runner-up behind Koepka in the 2018 US Open at Erin Hills and he once again showcased his appetite for a long, difficult golf course when 3rd at the Masters last month. Fleetwood has been generally solid in all departments recently and he warmed up for another shot at Major glory by finishing 13th at the Wells Fargo.

Byeong Hun An also impressed in Charlotte last week, firing a 5-under-par final round to finish 3rd behind McIlroy and Schauffele, and the long-driving Korean, who is enjoying a career resurgence since switching to the long putter, is a longshot worth keeping an eye on. An was 16th at the Masters and 4th at the Byron Nelson and it’s not impossible that he contends again this week.

Jon Rahm finished 45th as the defending champion at the Masters but the Spaniard should produce a much better effort when he tees it up in the second Major of the season. Defending the Masters is not an easy feat — the wearer of the Green Jacket has to fulfil hours of off-course obligations which serve as a distraction – while Rahm was under added scrutiny following his decision to move to LIV Golf.

Rahm is yet to win on the breakaway circuit but he’s been consistent, finishing in the top 10 in all 7 events, and he could easily spark back into life in the more intense environment of a Major. Others are preferred to Rahm in the outright market but he makes plenty of appeal in the top continental European market, where Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland are his biggest rivals. Aberg has been nursing a knee injury that forced him out of the Wells Fargo Championship while Hovland has not been at his best all season, failing to better 19th place in 7 starts.

The top Australian market looks ultra-competitive and, while it’s easy to make a case for one of Cameron Smith, Jason Day or Min Woo Lee, it would be wrong to write off the chances of Adam Scott. The veteran Queenslander is enjoying a consistent 2024 campaign and he’s still long enough off the tee to cope with the demands of Valhalla, where he finished 15th behind Rory McIlroy in the 2014 PGA Championship. Scott has had 4 straight top-30 finishes, including when 22nd at the Masters, and he can pick up the pieces should his countrymen falter.

Hideki Matsuyama has made 11 straight PGA Championship cuts, so it’s no surprise to see the 9-time PGA Tour winner priced up as a big favorite in the top Japanese market. However, like Aberg, he has been dealing with injuries and that’s a bad sign given how often the 32-year-old has been let down by his ailing body. Take him on with the impressive Keita Nakajima, who won the Indian Open in March and is a potential star in the making. Nakajima is 1 of 3 talented Japanese players who could serve it up to Matsuyama, but his extra power gives him the edge over Ryo Hisatsune and Takumi Kanaya.