NBA Picks

Game four between the top seed Boston Celtics and the number eight seed Miami Heat will take place Monday night. The Boston Celtics took back home court advantage by defeating the Heat 104-84 in Miami in game three. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led the way for the Celtics, scoring 22 points each. Boston was able to answer the call after their game two defeat by easily covering a 9.5-point spread. It was a well-balanced and dominant victory for Boston who led for the entirety of the game.

Game four is not an elimination game but it does feel like a must-win game for the Miami Heat. If the Heat feel they have any chance in this series, they cannot go back to Boston after losing both games at home. Miami will need to try to replicate what they did in game two. The problem with that is the Heat’s output in game two is not easy to match. They went 23-43 from three in game two and all five starters were in double figures for scoring. Jimmy Butler is still out recovering from an ACL strain, so Miami again will need to rely on their role players. Bam Adebayo has been the Heat’s most consistent scorer in this series, averaging a little over 21 points per game. Adebayo will need to continue to work the inside against Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis as the Heat hope their shooters can catch fire again. For my pick, I don’t anticipate the Heat keeping this game close. I believe they got their one win in game two, and Boston will win the rest of the games before advancing in five. Without Butler on the court, Miami is left without a leader. I expect head coach Erik Spoelstra to have the Heat throw up a ridiculous amount of threes again in game four. The Celtics are a physical and smart defense that learned their lesson in game two. 53% from three is a number Miami won’t be able to replicate. The Celtics will close out on shooters tonight like they did in game three and I have the Celtics winning this game convincingly as they continue to try and avenge 2023 Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Heat.

Celtics -10.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Having home court advantage seems to be the decisive factor so far in the series between the Magic and Cavaliers. Orlando just dominated both match-ups at home by double-digits, tying up the series at 2-2. But now, a pivotal Game 5 is on and it could decide in which direction this series goes. I’ve been more impressed with Orlando so far, despite their youth and inexperience they’ve more than held their ground against the going into this series favored Cavaliers. Jalen Suggs has gone a tremendous job shutting down Donovan Mitchell, the Magic have had an answer for everything the Cavs threw at them in the last 2 games. And they’re by far the better offensive team here, posting a 107.5 offensive rating to the Cavs’ 96.8 (2nd worst in the playoffs so far).

Cleveland’s biggest issue has been just that – scoring. Even in the two opening wins in this series they failed to crack the 100 point mark, while in all 4 games they’re yet to post an offensive rating greater than 105. After leading at half time of Game 4 by 9 points, the Cavs just went flat the rest of the way scoring a total of 29 points over the final 24 minutes of play. They’re averaging just 8 threes per game over the last 3 games of this series, on just 26.7% efficiency. The one thing they can hang their hopes on going into Game 5 is their 7-1 SU record in the last 8 home games vs Orlando, but that doesn’t guarantee them anything here.

It’s not a series until the road team wins a game, the old saying goes. I might be under the impression of their two home wins here, but I really believe the Magic have a chance to get something out of Game 5. I’ll roll with them to cover the spread.

Magic +4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Only 1 of the 4 games in this series has gone over the total and that was Game 3 in which Orlando put a series high 121 points. It has been a defensive minded series and old school NBA fans are loving it. Cleveland in particular has made double-digit threes only once in 4 games, the recorded only 4 of them in the Game 4 loss over the weekend. From Orlando’s perspective their leading scorer Paolo Banchero had an unusually low output with just 9 points on Saturday, surely that cannot happen in back-to-back games. The projected total still remains over 200 points for Game 5, but the way this series has played out even that sounds way too high. Orlando has cashed on the under in 8 of 10 games vs Central Division teams and in 4 of 6 vs Eastern Conference opponents. Until we get a high scoring game in this series by both sides, I think it’s worth sticking with the under.

Under 200.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.