UFC on ESPN 66: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates Prediction for Tomorrow, 04/26/25

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 66 will see Ian Machado Garry take on Carlos Prates. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Garry enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-1 and 8-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Garry is absorbing 2.82 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.74 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 54% and a takedown defense of 73%.

Prates enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-6 and 5-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Prates is absorbing 4.60 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48%. He has shown little grappling ability, averaging just 0.44 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 91% as a takedown defense of 91%.

Garry is the small favorite, but Prates looks to be a solid option to pull the upset. Prates has won all 5 of his UFC fights by KO/TKO and has incredibly powerful punches, whereas Garry is coming off his first loss and does not finish many of his opponents. Garry does have the edge in striking volume, but this is likely because Prates has yet to see any of his UFC fights go past the second round. Because of the power Prates has shown in the UFC, backing him to win will be our best bet.