UFC Fight Night 244: Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia Prediction for Saturday, 10/12/24

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 244 will see Grant Dawson take on Rafa Garcia. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Dawson enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-2-1 and he is 10-1-1 in the UFC. He averages 2.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Dawson absorbs 2.11 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.61 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts over the same period. Dawson has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 57%.

Garcia enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3 and he is 4-3 in the UFC. He averages 2.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Garcia absorbs 4.21 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 3.61 takedowns every 15 minutes. Garcia has a takedown accuracy of 44% and his takedown defense is 79%.

Dawson is one of the biggest favorites on this fight card, making his money line unplayable. Because of that, we will be looking for this fight to end by unanimous decision. Garcia has seen 8 of his last 9 UFC fights end by unanimous decision, while Dawson has seen 2 of his last 3 UFC fights do the same. While this fight looks as if it may be competitive, it is still likely to be one-sided given how most of their decisions have been. For that reason, backing this fight to end by unanimous decision will be our best bet.