UFC 313: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Predictions for Saturday, 03/08/25
UFC 313: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Pickswise Expert Predictions
The Co-Main Event at UFC 313 will see Justin Gaethje take on Rafael Fiziev. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Gaethje enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-5 and 8-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Gaethje absorbs 7.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling ability is not nearly as good, averaging only 0.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, Gaethje has a strong takedown defense of 75%.
Fiziev enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-3 and 6-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Fiziev is absorbing 4.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is also not strong, averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes. Fiziev has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 89%.
Fiziev is the moderate favorite in this fight but Gaethje looks to be a solid betting option to pull the upset. Gaethje has the clear advantage in striking and he is in better form, having won 2 of his last 3 UFC fights compared to Fiziev, who has won just 1 of his last 3 UFC fights, which includes 2 losses in a row. Because of this, backing Gaethje to win and pull the upset will be our lean.
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Matthew Lowrimore
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