UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Prediction for Today, 11/17/24

The Main Event at UFC 309 will see Jon Jones take on Stipe Miocic. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division and will be for the UFC Heavyweight title. Jones enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-1 and he is 21-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Jones absorbs 2.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.93 takedowns every 15 minutes. Jones has a takedown accuracy of 45% and his takedown defense is 95%.

Miocic enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-4 and he is 14-4 in the UFC. He averages 4.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Miocic absorbs 3.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.86 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 68%.

Jones is a serious favorite in this fight, making his money line too risky. Instead, we will be looking for this fight to go over 1.5 rounds. Jones has seen 9 of his last 10 UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, while Miocic has seen 3 of his last 5 UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds. Because they have both seen several recent fights go multiple rounds, backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds will be our lean.