UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Prediction for Saturday, 11/16/24

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC 309 will see Bo Nickal take on Paul Craig. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Nickal enters this fight with an MMA record of 6-0 and he is 5-0 in the UFC. He averages 1.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Nickal absorbs 0.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 70%. Nickal has proven to be an elite grappler, averaging 7.46 takedowns every 15 minutes and 7.5 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 50% and he has not needed to defend a takedown yet in the UFC.

Craig enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-8-1 and he is 9-8-1 in the UFC. He averages 2.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Craig absorbs 2.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. Craig has solid grappling ability, averaging 1.68 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 20% and he has a takedown defense of 37%.

Nickal is the overwhelming favorite in this fight so instead we will be looking at how this fight might end. Nickal has seen 4 of his 6 UFC fights end by submission, including 4 of his 5 UFC fights. Craig has seen 15 of his 26 career fights end by submission, therefore backing the same will be our lean.