NBA Picks

The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets square off in what feels like a coin-flip matchup, with both teams entering the night nearly identical in pace, scoring, and record. The Pistons are slight -1 favorites, a number mirroring their last meeting on November 6th—a game Charlotte won outright. Handicapping trends suggest that when the same line is offered from the previous meeting, the opposite result often follows, giving Detroit a reason to back.

The Hornets, however, boast strong trends in their favor. Charlotte is 14-6 in their last 20 matchups against Detroit, and short-lined underdogs (three points or fewer) are a perfect 5-0 this week ATS. Moreover, short-money line favorites like Detroit (-115) had an unusually high win rate of 67% last week, well above the season average of 43%, and are potentially due for regression. The spread offers no distinct edge, leading us to the total.

Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring, field goal %, and three-point %—seemingly a recipe for another low-scoring affair. But here’s the catch: Charlotte is 3rd in three-pointers made per game (16.3), while middling at 14th in percentage. This means they take a lot of 3-pointers. Familiarity with Detroit may unlock a sharper shooting night at home in the Spectrum Center. The oddsmakers moved the line from 223 in their first meeting to 221 tonight…it feels like a vulnerable spot for the streak to snap. Call me crazy, but I’m banking on a few extra shots falling tonight in North Carolina.

Pistons vs Hornets Prediction: Over 221 (-108) at the time of publishing, playable at this number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will travel north of the border tonight to take on the Toronto Raptors in a nonconference matchup. This is the second time these two teams have met this season. The Timberwolves won the first game on their home court 112-101. The Timberwolves led for the entirety of that game behind 24 points from both Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards. It is also worth mentioning that the Raptors did not have RJ Barrett in that game. We’ll see if a change in the home court and personnel affects tonight’s outcome. The Timberwolves have a record of 3-4 on the road this season, and the Raptors have a home record of 3-4.

A good term to describe the Minnesota Timberwolves to start the 2024-2025 season has been inconsistent. After the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota is trying to find its rhythm with new pieces Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. A positive for this team has been Edwards’ shooting from behind the arc. He currently leads the NBA in makes from three-point range with 4.8 per game. What has been different this season for Minnesota, at least within the first 14 games, is their defense. Last season, the Timberwolves led the NBA in defensive rating and did so with a wide margin. This season, they still rank within the top half of NBA defenses but have fallen to 12th. I expect the Wolves to reclimb their way up the rankings with Rudy Gobert and Edwards, but at this time, they are lacking too much consistency to back them to win by 7+ on the road.

Timberwolves vs Raptors prediction: Toronto +6.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Losing Paolo Banchero to an injury was devastating for the Orlando Magic, or at least it looked that way. They initially lost 4 straight without him before responding with a 6-game win streak because they played some of the best defense in the NBA this season. However, that streak ended last night against the Clippers, with the Magic failing to keep up with the pace by scoring just 93 points. Now they face the Lakers, who are much more potent on offense, and Orland is playing their second game in as many nights. The momentum is clearly on the Lakers’ side here.

Los Angeles has racked up 10 wins in their first 14 games this season and is currently the only remaining undefeated team at home in the Western Conference. Anthony Davis‘ play has been a major reason why the Lakers are so good, as he averages 30.7 points per game, marking the highest of his career. I don’t see the Wagner bros stopping him here; in his last 2 games against Orlando, AD has totaled 54 points, 32 rebounds and 10 blocks. The Magic have just 2 wins in 10 meetings with the Lakers, plus their road form hasn’t been all that good this season (2-6 overall). LA is a reliable 5-2 ATS in home games this season, and winning by 6+ points is very doable here, so let’s back them to cover.

Magic vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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