College Basketball Picks

It’s an Elite 8 showdown in the MidWest region as the Tennessee Volunteers gets ready to take on the Houston Cougars.  Houston was lucky to escape against Purdue on Friday, scoring a go-ahead bucket with only one second left to win the game.  As for the Volunteers, they had no issues shutting down an explosive Kentucky offense, and they’ll be looking to control the pace of play in Sunday’s matchup.  Tennessee was first in field goal percentage defense this season and Houston was first in scoring defense this year.  Both teams know how to suffocate their opponents on the court, but in terms of offense, both teams are nearly identical with the Volunteers averaging 74.7 PPG and Houston with 74.2 PPG.  This is going to be a defense battle, but I think the Volunteers will be keep this game close to the very end and here’s why.

The one player that Houston needs to be worried about on this Volunteers team is Chaz Lanier, who averaged 18 PPG this season, but in tournament play, he’s averaging 22 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.  This Volunteers offense doesn’t light up the scoreboard, but they have three players who are averaging double digits this season.  As for Houston, they have four players averaging double digits, and L.J. Cryer leads this Cougars team with 15.3 PPG.  Despite a few close calls, Houston’s offense is still able to make shots when they count.  They are shooting 45.5% from the field this year, just right behind Tennessee who is shooting 45.6% on the season.  Houston’s defense will give Tennessee some issues, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop them dead in their tracks.  Houston has a physical bench, but I think Tennessee is playing a little bit more physical and shooting the ball better than the Cougars at this point in time.  Houston shot only 37.7% against a Purdue defense that isn’t very good, and in my opinion, the Cougars should’ve shot way better than that. Tennessee shot 50.9% against Kentucky, and I expect them to have their fair share of decent looks against Houston in this matchup. This game is going to go come down to the wire, and I think Tennessee will do plenty to keep this game close, making them my best bet of the day.

Tennessee vs Houston Prediction: Tennessee +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I can’t say that I’m surprised to see this game total set to 123.5 before tipoff.  This is a matchup between two solid defenses that love to smother their opponents, and there won’t be many easy buckets in this game.  Tennessee is holding their opponents to 28.5% from beyond the arc this season, which Houston will look to crack as they’re shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc this season. Unfortunately for the Cougar fans, I don’t think Houston will find much success from deep as they just went 9-23 (39.1%) against Purdue in their last matchup.  I think limiting the shots from beyond the arc, and knowing there won’t be many easy opportunities inside the paint in this matchup, plus neither team commits a ton of fouls.  Look for it to be a struggle for both teams to score, which is why I’ll be backing the under in this matchup.

Tennessee vs Houston Prediction: Under 123.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We head to the South regional on Sunday for a Michigan State Spartans vs Auburn Tigers prediction. We have the top two seeds in the region facing off, as the B1G champion Spartans face the SEC regular season champion Tigers. Auburn has yet to look dominant in the tournament, often having to put up big second half numbers to win games. The Spartans have had a couple of close battles, first with New Mexico and then with Ole Miss, but they have survived every test. What should we expect as these two teams try to punch a ticket to the Final Four? I look for Auburn to put it together on Sunday, and my Michigan State vs Auburn pick is Auburn -5.

Sparty has survived close games all year, and they have done so by being a patient but efficient offensive team, and a team that relies on an elite defense. The major weakness of this Michigan State team, however, is that they do not make enough 3-pointers. That is going to be a problem against an Auburn team who is elite at defending inside the paint. If you can’t make 3s against Auburn to stretch out their defense, it is hard to find buckets. I think that will be the case on Sunday. The Spartans will keep things close for a while, but in the end, their inability to make enough 3s, coupled with the interior defense of the Tigers, will be enough to see Auburn eventually pull away. It is scary to think that we still haven’t seen a good game out of Auburn in the tournament, and it could be coming here. Give me the Tigers to punch their ticket.

Michigan State vs Auburn Prediction: Auburn -5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

As we look to the game total in this one, it is important to note a couple of things. First, neither of these teams plays at a particularly fast pace, ranking in the middle of the pack in tempo over the course of the season. And second, tournament play tends to slow down the pace of play, leading to more deliberate and careful possessions. My Michigan State vs Auburn prediction on the game total is for this one to stay under 147.5.

Michigan State has only rarely been over this game total over the past couple of months, all of them against super fast teams—Iowa, Bryant, and the shot-happy Wisconsin Badgers, for example. As for Auburn, they haven’t been over this total as much as you would think either, and that usually against race-horse teams like Alabama and Kentucky. There is probably not a lot of reason for either team to push the pace, and for as good as both defenses are, neither actually forces all that many turnovers, so transition baskets should be limited. I think this game might grind a bit, with a lot of single-shot possessions. I’ll take the under.

Michigan State vs Auburn Prediction: Under 147.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Elite Eight is finally here and the two best teams in the West Region are set to square off in a game that should produce plenty of fireworks on Saturday. Florida is the top seed in the region, and the Gators certainly looked like it on Thursday, as they comfortably rolled past a Maryland team that was a top 10 team per KenPom heading into that contest. Conversely, Texas Tech is extremely fortunate to even be playing in this game, as the Red Raiders rallied from a 15-point second half deficit to force overtime in the waning seconds against Arkansas, before ultimately going on to win the game on a bucket with 7 seconds left in overtime. While I was pretty bullish on Texas Tech’s chance to make it to the Final Four heading into this tournament, this isn’t a great matchup for a Red Raiders group that is also in a pretty unfortunate situational spot on Saturday.

Texas Tech is having to play against a deep and talented Florida team on a very short turnaround, with the game tipping off approximately 40 hours after the conclusion of their overtime thriller. The Gators are not a team you want to play on this short of a turnaround, especially since they were able to stagger the minutes of their frontcourt on Thursday. That is especially important against a Texas Tech team that plays through their frontcourt duo of Darrion Williams and J.T. Toppin. With Florida having four quality bigs to throw at Williams and Toppin, there’s a real chance that the cumulative wear and tear of playing 35+ minutes against this frontcourt takes its toll on the top scoring options for Texas Tech. In a game of this magnitude, I trust that Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and company should be able to hold their own on the defensive side, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end. Additionally, the exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Florida was able to spread out Texas Tech on the perimeter and generate good looks from beyond the arc. While I’ve loved this Texas Tech team all season long, I can only look at Florida in this matchup.

Texas Tech vs Florida prediction: Florida -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I’ve written about this Florida team at length this season, but one thing that continues to impresses me is how the Gators can beat you in a number of different ways. In this game, it would behoove Todd Golden’s team to dictate the flow of the game by playing at their fast pace, which is not where Texas Tech is comfortable (269th in adjusted tempo). The Gators should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Texas Tech is not a team that creates a ton of havoc forces live-ball turnovers on defense (175th nationally in turnovers forced). And as we’ve seen on numerous occasions in this tournament, if the team holding the lead is able to play at their preferred pace, the trailing team (usually the underdog) will have to play a game that they’re uncomfortable with. At the end of the day, I’ll back the over in a game that should have plenty of free throws and 3-point attempts.

Texas Tech vs Florida prediction: Over 155.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 156.

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Alabama’s Sweet 16 performance was more than impressive, but BYU and Duke are vastly different defensively. The Cougars ended the season in the 3rd percentile in defensive rating over their last 10 games (CBB Analytics), and they were outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency in March (Barttorvik). Before they even met Alabama in the Sweet 16, they allowed a 3-point attempt on nearly half of opposing possessions in the last month, and their opponents made more than 35% of those attempts. While the Blue Devils don’t completely shut down the perimeter, they excel at closing out on shooters with their rangy defenders. A vast majority of Duke’s rotation is 6’6” or taller and consists of longer and quicker perimeter defenders than BYU, so expect the Blue Devils to get more hands in the faces of Alabama’s shooters.

I can’t help but think it will be extremely difficult for Alabama to replicate Thursday’s shooting success against Duke. If the Crimson Tide’s perimeter performance regresses significantly, it forces them to create more at the rim – where Duke is excellent defensively. In fact, the Blue Devils are elite at taking away rim opportunities, as they sit in the 92nd percentile in opposing rim attempts and in the 91st percentile in opposing rim shooting percentage. In addition to taking away rim attempts, Duke is excellent at defending in transition. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Blue Devils are in the 13th percentile in transition opportunities allowed (meaning they don’t allow a lot of them), and are in the 97th percentile in opposing transition efficiency. 

Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel have good individual matchups against Alabama. Grant Nelson and Mouhamed Dioubate are likely to be the primary defenders on Flagg, and they aren’t what I could consider disciplined defenders. Nelson consistently was in foul trouble in Alabama’s biggest games prior to the NCAA Tournament, and Dioubate averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom). That could be disastrous for Alabama, as Flagg is top 85 of 2,300 Division 1 players in drawing fouls and has shot more than 200 free throw this season. Expect him to continue to be aggressive on Saturday. As for Knueppel, he has a decent size advantage on the perimeter against Alabama. He should be able to utilize that size advantage to shoot over Alabama’s defenders or create off the dribble into the paint and rim areas – where Alabama is weaker defensively. All things considered, Duke profiles as a team that can pose problems for Alabama on both ends. While this feels like a lot of points to lay against a record-breaking offense, I lean Duke’s way.

Alabama vs Duke prediction: Duke Blue Devils -6.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The stage is set for the East regional, as the top 2 seeds in the Duke Blue Devils and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet in Newark on Saturday with a trip to the Final Four in San Antonio on the line. Both of these teams were excellent in their Sweet 16 wins. In fact, both scored at least 100 points with insane offensive performances. Duke scored 1.41 points per possession against Arizona, connecting on 61% of attempts inside the arc and 58% of attempts beyond it. Alabama’s performance was even better, as the Tide scored 1.43 points per possession while connecting on 25 of 51 3-point attempts. The 113-88 win over BYU broke multiple NCAA Tournament records, including most points, most 3-points made, and most 3-s attempted in a tournament game.

In an attempt to limit Alabama’s possessions and transition opportunities, I expect Duke to be a bit more deliberate in its pace of play than BYU was against the Tide – especially after Arizona got whatever it wanted in transition on Thursday. That’s not to say Duke will be able to hold Alabama under 80 points, but rather the Blue Devils are assembled in a way that should provide better protection from Alabama’s perimeter and transition game compared to BYU. They should be able to utilize those strengths to win and cover. However, Duke is way too good offensively for me to want any part of an Under in this game. Duke can score in any type of game flow and is the most efficient offense in the country, so the Blue Devils should be able to get whatever they want against what can be an exploitable Alabama defense. In fact, the only other offenses that compare to Duke’s efficiency level are Auburn and Florida, who scored an average of 97 points in 4 combined games against Alabama this season – all 4 of those games went over this number. Moreover, the Blue Devils just played to only 71 possessions against Arizona on Thursday – which is a slow-paced game per Alabama’s standards – yet they scored 100 points. In the round prior, Duke scored 89 points in a 59-possession game against Baylor. This offense can fill it up from anywhere and against anyone, and there’s a chance Cooper Flagg lives at the free throw line with undisciplined defending from the Tide’s front court, which only helps the Over. Given Alabama’s extreme pace and low defensive floor, I like Duke to score at least 95 points in this one, which should be enough to push this game Over the total. 

Alabama vs Duke prediction: Over 172.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable o 174.5.

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