College Basketball Picks

Indiana has scored at least 80 points in each of its’ first three games, but the under is the recommended bet in this matchup with UNC Greensboro. Under Mike Jones, the Spartans have historically played at a slow tempo, as they have ranked outside the top 300 in average offensive possession length in two of three seasons with Jones at the helm. Indiana has really pushed the tempo so far this year, ranking 22nd in average offensive possession length, per KenPom. There are just 21 teams quicker, but UNC Greensboro has played one of them in SMU. In their matchup with SMU, the game finished with 73 possessions and 149 points, but the free throw line played a big role in that. The teams combined to shoot 36/52 from the line, which helped push the game over the total by a single point. With potentially less free throws in this one, the game will have a good chance of staying under.

Lastly, UNC Greensboro’s defensive identity is to protect the paint and the Spartans have ranked in the top 100 of two-point percentage defense each of the last two years. Indiana owns one of the lowest three-point attempt rates in the country, so perhaps the UNC Greensboro defense will do just enough to keep the game under.

Under 146 available at publishing. Playable to Under 145.

The Baylor Bears will face off with the St. John’s Red Storm in the opening game of the Bahamas championship. The winner of this matchup will play the winner of Tennessee and Virginia in this mini 4 team tournament. Baylor has gotten back on track since their opening night blowout loss to Gonzaga, winning 3 straight contests including an impressive 72-67 win over Arkansas. For the Johnnie’s, they have played up to the hype thus far, as they have a perfect 4-0 record including a comfortable win over the New Mexico Lobos. This should be a fun matchup between 2 talented teams, but there is an edge to be had on one side.

After Baylor’s embarrassing loss to Gonzaga where they gave up 101 points, coach Scott Drew decided that a change was needed on the defensive end right away. The adjustment he made vs Arkansas was switching to his 1-1-3 zone that he made famous during the early 2010’s. This gave a below average shooting team in Arkansas some real problems, and it could give St. John’s similar issues. Drew also made it a point to slow the pace down and prevent transition opportunities, an area in which the Red Storm thrive as well. Forcing St. John’s to become a jump shot reliant team should do wonders for a Baylor team that hasn’t been great when playing man to man.

Baylor also has avenues to success on the offensive end, and that’s starting with the offensive glass. They are 15th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, led by Norchad Omier, and they can exploit the one true weakness the Johnnie’s have defensively (166th in defensive rebound rate). The Bears should also have success in the pick and roll game with their plethora of guard options, and St. John’s has been poor defending these actions to start the season (19th percentile vs pick and roll handler, per Synergy).

These factors along with the Bears being tested away from home should give them the edge over a Red Storm team that hasn’t left the friendly confines of New York this season. Unless St. John’s has an outlier shooting day, Baylor’s defense matches up well when playing their zone, and they have more scoring talent. Back the Bears in the Bahamas on Thursday night.

Baylor -2.5 (-105) at time of publishing, playable at that number

Syracuse and Texas face off in a matchup that promises offensive fireworks. Both teams have had warm-up games to start the season, with Syracuse boasting a 3-0 record against weak competition and Texas sitting at 3-1, their lone loss coming in the opener against Ohio State. This game resembles last night’s Alabama-Illinois clash, with Texas seeking a “bounce-back win” against a more credible opponent.

Texas enters as an 11-point favorite, but that number feels tricky, especially with Syracuse capable of a late backdoor cover. Syracuse’s sluggish start against lesser teams raises concerns, but they’ve shown bright spots, particularly in rebounding, ranking 6th nationally. Their offensive rebounding prowess could provide critical second-chance opportunities.

Both teams excel offensively, with Syracuse 2-1 to the over and Texas 3-1. Texas averages 89 points per game, ranking 24th nationally, and boasts elite shooting stats: 15th in FG%, 67th in 3P%, and 11th in overall offensive rating. Syracuse’s defense, however, is suspect, sitting 263rd in defensive rating at 106.1. Texas rarely turns the ball over, and Syracuse struggles to force them, meaning the Longhorns should find ample scoring opportunities.

While Texas has the edge, expect Syracuse to hang around in a neutral site Brooklyn, creating a high-scoring battle.

Syracuse vs Texas Prediction: over 156 (-110) playable to that number at time of publishing

The Tennessee Volunteers get set to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night in Nassau, Bahamas as part of the Bahamas Championship, with the winner to face off against either Baylor or St. John’s tomorrow. The Volunteers, under head coach Rick Barnes, enter the tournament a perfect 4-0 and ranked 11th in the nation, while the Cavaliers remain unblemished at 3-0 under first-year head coach Ron Sanchez after the departure of Tony Bennett, who previously led the Virginia basketball program for 15 years. One of these teams will suffer their first loss of the season and the Volunteers are heavy favorites, entering Thursday’s matchup as 12-point favorites. Now that the stage is set, will the Volunteers cover the double-digit point spread, or will the Cavaliers hang tight and cover?

Despite losing All-American Dalton Knecht to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Vols have remained one of the top teams in college basketball by holding on to point guard Zakai Zeigler, while adding scorers to make up for the lost production of Knecht by picking up transfers such as Felix Okpara and Chaz Lanier. To date, the Vols haven’t missed a beat, and their 22-point win on the road as 2.5-point underdogs against Louisville immediately squashed any questions about regression. Over their first 4 games, Tennessee has won every contest by at least 16 points and are ranked 6th in the country, per Kenpom.

There are still some valid questions surrounding the Virginia Cavaliers and head coach Ron Sanchez as they enter this tournament. While the Cavs did pick up a good win over Villanova in their previous game, they still play at a snail’s pace with their adjusted tempo ranking 362 out of 364 college programs. Virginia has held all 3 of their opponents to 60 points or less, but Tennessee is a huge step up in competition, and they are averaging 88 ppg over their first 4 games. Virginia could limit the number of possessions the Vols ultimately get in this game, but Tennessee is not just scoring in bunches, they’re scoring more efficiently than any other team in the country, shooting at 58.1% from the field. The Vols are also ranked 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so the Cavs will need match Tennessee in scoring efficiency, which I don’t foresee happening. Lay the points with the Vols.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction: Tennessee -12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.