College Basketball Picks

On Friday night in Atlanta, head coach Chris Beard and his Ole Miss Rebels get set to take on head coach Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans in the South Region for what should be a fantastic game and an all around intriguing Sweet 16 slate. Beard has done a remarkable job in his second season at Ole Miss, taking a team that missed the tournament last year to now knocking on the door of an Elite 8 appearance. The Rebels entered the tournament as a #6 seed and were just 1 of the 14 teams from the SEC to earn their way to the Big Dance — including 7 teams that advanced to the Sweet 16. Playing in the most competitive conference certainly paid off for the Rebels come tournament time, holding leads as large as 22 points against North Carolina in the round of 64 and 26 points against Iowa State in the round of 32.

The journey to the Sweet 16 wasn’t quite as smooth for Izzo and the Spartys however. Michigan State took care of business with a 25-point win over Bryant in the first round but got tested in the round of 32 and trailed New Mexico for the entire first half before some second-half adjustments led to an 8-point win. This should be a great matchup that pins a pair of accomplished coaches against one another, but I’m leaning on the side of the Rebels in this contest. Ole Miss has been dominant through the first 2 games of the tournament and these teams aren’t all that different on paper.

The Rebels rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency, 131st in tempo and eighth in strength of schedule. The Spartans rank 25th offensively, fifth defensively, 170th in tempo and 26th in strength of schedule. Ole Miss is an extremely experienced team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup, whereas the Spartans have a pair of freshmen in Jace Richardson and Jeremy Fears Jr. starting. I think the experience of the Rebels along with their ability to force turnovers while taking care of the ball on offense will be enough to keep this a 1-possession game.

Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction: Ole Miss +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There are 7 Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, but only 2 are going head-to-head. The Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats will be facing each other for the 3rd time this season when they battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Outside of the top teams in the nation, whom Tennessee obviously won’t run into as a #2 seed until at least the Elite 8, Kentucky is the last opponent the Volunteers would want to face at this stage. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series with a 78-73 road win followed by a 75-64 victory at Rupp Arena. Are those results repeatable? Probably. Kentucky held Tennessee to a combined 14-for-61 (23 percent) shooting from three-point range in those 2 contests. That is nothing out of the ordinary for the ‘Cats, who are 24th in the nation in three-point defense (30.6 percent).

Kentucky is better than its 24-11 (10-8 SEC) record suggests. Former San Diego State guard Lamont Butler missed 9 games due to injury but is looking better by the day. After doing nothing in Round 1 against Troy, Butler delivered 14 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 3 steals during an 84-75 victory over Illinois. Tennessee, which ousted Wofford and UCLA in the first 2 rounds, is also playing well. However, this is clearly a matchup the Vols do not love. Is Kentucky going to beat conference rival Tennessee for the 3rd time this season? Maybe, maybe not. But getting 4.5 points, the value is definitely with UK.

Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction: Kentucky +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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It was a wild weekend for the Michigan Wolverines. They nearly blew a double-digit lead to UC San Diego on Thursday, scoring just 27 second-half points and ultimately winning by only 3. Then in the round of 32, the Wolverines faced a 10-point second-half deficit against Texas A&M before going on a torrid run – scoring 46 points in the final 15 minutes of the game while outscoring the Aggies 30-16 over the final 10 minutes. Head coach Dusty May and his squad now advance to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta to play the #1 overall seed Auburn Tigers less than 2 hours up I-85 from their own campus. While Michigan’s fanbase tends to travel well, I’m expecting there to be a heavy Auburn contingent at State Farm Arena. Michigan typically overpowers its opponents with size in the front court thanks to its dueling 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Auburn has the size to match the Wolverines in the post. Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell are 2 of the better post defenders in the country, both boasting top 50 marks in KenPom’s block rate out of 2,300+ Division 1 players. Head coach Bruce Pearl will also likely use Chaney Johnson on Wolf for a bit, as Johnson has freakish athleticism that would be well-utilized against the versatile Michigan big man. 

The Tigers have the advantage in this matchup when it comes to reliability from the 3-point line and in the turnover department. While Michigan has been a little bit better at taking care of the ball in the postseason, the Wolverines are still 324th in turnover rate this season, and their 14 turnovers against the Tritons in the first round almost cost them the game. Moreover, the Wolverines only have 2 real perimeter threats in Nimari Burnett and former-Tiger Tre Donaldson. On the other end, Auburn simply doesn’t give the ball away. In fact, the Tigers are pretty much the polar opposite of Michigan, as they turn the ball over on less than 14 percent of their possessions – which is 5th nationally. The Tigers also have 4 shooters that knock down at least 38% of their perimeter shots on at least 135 attempts. I see a path to success here for the Wolverines, but it would require an uncharacteristically good shooting night in combination with one of their lowest turnover rates of the season. That is a lot to ask against a deep Auburn team that gets it done on both ends of the floor and has been playing together for a couple years. Give me the Tigers to win by 10+ and advance to the Elite 8.

Michigan vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -8.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5. 

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The Midwest Region has almost gone all chalk to this point, which sets up a very intriguing matchup between the Houston Cougars and Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 on Friday. These teams have taken very different paths to get to this point, with Purdue knocking off a couple of double-digit seeds in High Point and McNeese State, while Houston had to go through a dramatically under-seeded Gonzaga team in the Round of 32. The Cougars are certainly the more battled-tested team to to this point, and Gonzaga even profiles as a significantly better team than Purdue according to the predictive metrics. I’m certainly inclined to agree with the likes of KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya and others, which certainly doesn’t hurt my handicap for this game. Given that this contest is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, this is something of a home game for Purdue, a rare sight for the lower seed in a second weekend tournament game. However, that doesn’t dissuade me from backing the much better team, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, in a game where Houston’s physicality, coaching and dominance on the glass should win out.

Purdue was able to systematically break down its first couple of opponents in the tournament with an excellent offensive gameplan, something that Matt Painter has excelled at over the years. However, Purdue was fortunate enough to get great matchups against defenses that were willing to give Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn plenty of space to get off the shots they were most comfortable with. While the Boilermakers’ offense is excellent, this Houston defense is the best in the nation by any metric, and they are not one to make things easy on their opponents. Not only will this easily be Purdue’s stiffest test yet, but the Boilermakers will be in trouble on the other side of the ball as well. This Purdue defense is possibly the worst unit remaining in the tournament, particularly when it comes to defending the rim (341st in two-point defense per BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against a Houston team just got a terrific effort from J’wan Roberts in the paint against a better Gonzaga defense. Ultimately, Houston should establish itself as the better team over the first 20 minutes and go on to win this one comfortably in the second half.

Purdue vs Houston prediction: Houston -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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The first game of the Sweet 16 takes us to the East Region in New Jersey for a BYU Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction. The Crimson Tide are part of the SEC’s steamrolling of the tournament, and they got here with wins over Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. St. Mary’s is a slow, defensive-minded team, but the Tide will have to change gears completely when planning for BYU. The Cougars dispatched VCU in the opening round before outgunning Wisconsin in round 2 via a 91-89 decision. These 2 teams are probably going to blow out the lights on the scoreboard. My BYU vs Alabama prediction, however, is for the Tide to ultimately win and cover.

Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in the country. Head coach Nate Oates’ method of basketball is straightforward: do something fast, and operate in volume. The Tide will shoot 3s or layups and little else. They also pressure the ball defensively and get a lot of transition looks. BYU shares some similarities. The Cougars do not play as fast, but they are one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the nation. You know the modern basketball axiom: 3 points are worth more than 2 points, and both teams like to prove it true. Here’s the decisive factor for me, though: the Tide defend the arc at an elite level. They chase teams off the line, and they make those outside looks tough. I think that is the difference in the game. If BYU has a downturn in its ability to hit 3s, as I expect it will, Alabama should eventually pull away. I like the Tide to win and cover.

BYU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Terrapins have had their fair share of tough beats this season, and what seemed like another heartbreaking defeat turned into a thrilling win when freshman Derik Queen took the ball with just 3.7 seconds left and scored the game-winning layup to defeat Colorado State. The Terrapins aren’t the only ones who were lucky to be moving on, as the Gators had a tough time against the Huskies in the second round, winning by just 2 points despite shooting 46% from the field. Can we say both teams are lucky to have made it to the Sweet 16? Absolutely. However, it shouldn’t be considered a fluke that they’ve made it this far based on their performances all season long.  

According to KenPom, the Gators are ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Maryland sits at 22nd. On the defensive end, KenPom has Maryland ranked 6th in defense where the Gators are close behind at 11th. The Terrapins likely would have earned a higher seed in this tournament if it weren’t for their buzzer-beater losses to Michigan State and Michigan, as well as a heartbreaking three-pointer by OSU with just a few seconds left. This Maryland team is loaded with talent, with all 5 of their starters averaging double digits this season.

The same can be said about Florida, with 4 of their starters averaging double digits, but I think the big difference here is each team’s ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. Florida loves to shoot the three-ball, hitting 35.6% of their shots from deep and holding their opponents to just 29.3%. As for Maryland, they don’t shoot it as much as Florida, but they’re shooting 37.5% from deep while holding their opponents to just 30.2%. I think this game is going to be a close one, but I believe the Gators have the advantage in rebounding the ball along with their ability to shoot the ball from deep. Give me the Gators to cover and march on to the Elite 8.

Maryland vs Florida prediction: Florida -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’ve got a massive matchup on our hands in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, as the Arizona Wildcats will square off against the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils in the East Region. Arizona is fresh off a hard-fought victory over former Pac-12 rival Oregon, but it sure wasn’t easy, as the Wildcats needed to rally from an early double-digit deficit and hit all of their free throws late to secure a berth in the Sweet 16. As for Duke, it was business as usual for the Blue Devils in a dominant victory over Baylor on Sunday. Duke has undoubtedly looked like a juggernaut in this tournament, which has inflated this number a bit in the market. While the Blue Devils are the deserving national title favorite heading into this game, it’s important to remember that this will be the toughest matchup this team has faced in the postseason by a considerable margin.

On paper, this Arizona team has the athletes to compete with the Blue Devils’ elite talent at all positions, and while that is easier said than done, the Wildcats also have the advantage of clicking at the right time heading into this contest. Following the win over Oregon, head coach Tommy Lloyd’s team has now won 4 of their last 5 games, while also playing some of their best defense of the season in that span. Compared to what Duke faced in the lowly ACC this season, the cumulative wear and tear of a full Big 12 conference slate has seemed to strengthen the resolve of this Arizona team and given it some much-needed belief heading into this game. The Wildcats should be able to hang in this game thanks to their top-10 offense (Barttorvik), excellent offensive rebounding profile (15th in OREB percentage) and another good game from Caleb Love, who is known to be inconsistent. With that said, if Arizona can get second chance points and get to the line consistently, the Wildcats will have a chance to win this one outright.

On the other side, Duke is obviously a complete team, one that certainly looks like the best in the nation. However, the big unknown in this game is how Jon Scheyer’s team will adjust to finally playing a top 15 caliber team. It’s hard to account for the step-up in competition that the Blue Devils will see in this game, as the last time Duke played a team that was anywhere near Arizona’s weight class from a talent and/or statistical perspective, it lost outright to Clemson back in early February. While I don’t expect Duke to slip up and lose outright, Arizona is certainly a live underdog and should do enough to keep things close on Thursday.

Arizona vs Duke prediction: Arizona +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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The stage is set in San Francisco for an intense Sweet 16 matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Arkansas enters this game as a 5.5 point underdog, a familiar spot for it in this tournament. The Razorbacks have embraced the underdog role, ousting both Kansas and St. John’s to get here. Their victory over Kansas was particularly impressive, as they managed a 7-point win despite shooting just 25% from beyond the arc. Against St. John’s they capitalized on the Red Storm’s cold shooting night, needing only 75 points on 43% shooting to advance. Questions remain about how legitimate St. John’s was this season given the Big East’s overall struggles, but Arkansas is proving it belongs. All eyes are on head coach John Calipari, who finds himself an underdog for the third straight NCAA Tournament game — a first in his storied career. Historically, he has thrived in these spots with an 8-3-1 record against the spread as an underdog.

Texas Tech, a #3 seed, has taken care of business thus far. The Red Raiders handled UNCW with ease before pulling away from a scrappy Drake team in the second round. Their shooting drastically improved from the first round, hitting 53.8% against Drake en route to a 77-64 victory. While the Red Raiders are a dangerous team, they have struggled in neutral-site games — sitting at 1-6 ATS in such settings. With Calipari’s proven track record as an underdog and Arkansas riding a wave of momentum, the Razorbacks are a strong play in what should hopefully be one of the best games of the tournament thus far.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech prediction: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5.

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