College Basketball Picks

Oregon heads into this matchup on a three game winning streak as they get ready to take on the red hot Wisconsin Badgers.  The ducks barely squeezed by Iowa in their last matchup, winning by a final score of 80-78, and if they want to beat Wisconsin on Saturday, they’ll need to be on top of their game.  Wisconsin has been on an absolute tear, winning five games in a row, and within that span they’ve had solid victories over Illinois and then No. 7 Purdue. This Big Ten matchup is going to be a good one, and unfortunately for Oregon fans, I think Wisconsin is going to be a little too much for them to handle and here’s why. 

Oregon is 2-4 against ranked opponents this season and haven’t been playing consistent enough for me to trust them.  Oregon almost blew the game against Iowa, they blew a 14-point lead against MSU in early February, but they were able to hold off a mediocre Northwestern team just a few games ago.  Oregon is averaging 76.6 points per game while giving up 71.7 points per game on average.  This Wisconsin team is averaging 82 points per game while giving up 70.6 on average.  Wisconsin just defeated Illinois 95-74, Purdue 94-84, and they were able to defeat Iowa 74-63, someone that Oregon barely squeezed by. This Wisconsin team has been amazing at home this season, going 14-3, plus they have a better defense and John Tonje who is coming off back-to-back 30+ point games.  Look for Wisconsin to dominate at home in front of their home crowd, making them my best bet of the day. 

Oregon vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tennessee Volunteers will travel to College Station on Saturday for an SEC matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies. It will be one of the best games of the day as Tennessee is ranked #6 and Texas A&M is ranked #7 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aggies and the Volunteers are two of the best teams in the SEC and in the entire country. Texas A&M is 1.5-point favorites, but our best bet of the game is the under. We like the under because both defenses are amazing and both teams play at a slow pace.

The total is currently set for 130.5 points and that is our best bet of the game. Both teams play defense at a high level and should struggle to score offensively. According to KenPom, Tennessee’s defense is ranked #1 in adjusted efficiency and Texas A&M is ranked #5. Tennessee is ranked #129 in points per game and Texas A&M is ranked #153, so we do not expect a big offense game by either team. The Volunteers have an elite defense, so the total has gone under in 61.5 percent of their games this season. Like Tennessee, the total has gone under in 69.2 percent of the Aggies games so the under is our best bet. Take the under here.

*Under 130.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at 129*  

One of the best games on the Saturday college basketball slate comes in the Big 12, where the Houston Cougars are set to host the Iowa State Cyclones in a clash of the best teams in this conference. On paper, Houston is the better team in this matchup, and I wouldn’t disagree that the Cougars have the higher floor between these programs this season. With that said, I’m optimistic in Iowa State’s chances to hang with Kelvin Sampson’s bunch at the Fertitta Center, a place where we just saw Texas Tech go in and emerge with a victory back on February 1. Houston is still dealing with a bit of lingering injury trouble heading into this game, as Emanuel Sharp has not appeared to be anywhere close to his usual self offensively since making his return from an ankle injury a couple of games ago. While the Cougars have been able to survive (and even thrive) against solid competition without Sharp, it would obviously be a big boost for their offense if he was close to 100% on Saturday. 

On the other side, it’s clear that the shooting ability of sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic was sorely missed in the current Cyclones rotation, as Iowa State has won each of its games by double digits since his return to the lineup. Additionally, Barttorvik has Iowa State as the 4th-ranked team since Momcilovic’s return, two slots ahead of this Cougars teams. Iowa State when head coach T. J. Otzelberger will need to rely on his bench unit and mix up the rotations against this ferocious Houston defense, especially without Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones in the lineup. The Cyclones offense is one that can get to the foul line with consistent success, but it also thrives against defenses that don’t guard the 3-point arc very well. It just so happens that Houston has really struggled in both of these departments over the last month, as the Cougars are ranked 322nd in 3-point rate allowed and 252nd in 3-point percentage defense since February 1 (Barttorvik). In that same time frame, Houston’s defense is 302nd in free-throw rate allowed, which should allow the Cyclones to hang around in this game, even in a hostile environment. Lastly, Iowa State has won 2 of its 3 games against Houston a year ago, with the lone defeat coming by 8 points on the road. That Cougars team — led by all-world point guard Jamal Shead — was a better unit than the one the Cyclones will face on Saturday, even if some of the advanced metrics would disagree. All things considered, I’ll back the Cyclones to keep things close in this clash of the titans. 

Iowa State vs Houston prediction: Iowa State +12.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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The last time Wake Forest played a game was last Saturday against SMU where they defeated their conference rivals by a final score of 77-66.  As for NC State, they’re coming off a brutal loss to UNC and they’ll be looking to rebound in this matchup in hopes to pick up a victory in front of their home crowd.  Wake Forest is fighting to build their resume with March just right around the corner.  As for NC State, they’re in an absolute rut and really don’t have much left to play for other than pride.  Come game time, I think Wake Forest shouldn’t have any issues handling NC State and here’s why. 

 NC State have lost 10 out of their last 11 games, and playing against this Wake Forest team isn’t going to get any easier for them.  The last time these two teams faced, Wake Forest won by 18 points, and even though that was on their home court, I don’t think Wake Forest will have any issues playing on the road.  Wake Forest is 4th in the ACC, but they don’t have a high powered offense, averaging just 70.6 points per game while giving up 66.7 points per game.  As for NC State, they’re averaging 69.6 points per game while giving up 69.8 points per game.  A big piece of Wake Forest success is their ability to swarm their opponents and pressure them, which is why their opponents are only shooting 39.2% from the field this season.  I think Wake Forest will do enough to secure this victory on the road and they’ll cover this spread, making them my best bet of the day. 

Wake Forest vs NC State prediction: Wake Forest -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We head to the ACC on Saturday afternoon for a Pitt Panthers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction. Neither of these teams has been very good since beginning conference play, as Pitt sits at 7-8 and the Irish are 5-10. Notre Dame has lost 4 of its last 5 games, including getting smoked at home in consecutive games by SMU and Louisville. Of course, those are both tournament teams and far better than Pitt, so the Irish will look to bounce back. Pitt broke out of a slump by winning 2 straight, but to pour water on that, those games were at home and against Miami and Syracuse, who are at the bottom of the league. I don’t think we can confidently project a winner in this spot, and I think the smartest play is on the game total under 142.5.

These teams profile similarly. They are among the slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo, but they both play efficiently on offense. On the whole, both teams have been content to play in low-scoring, slow-tempo games when they play opponents who also prefer that style of play, and that is what I expect here. Because both teams are better on offense than on defense, there is a chance of some efficient offense sinking this bet, but I think the most likely outcome is a slow, sluggish game that finishes close and in the upper 60s. Give me the under in this spot.

Pitt vs Notre Dame Prediction: Under 142.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Auburn Tigers will try to maintain control of the #1 ranking in the nation when they host the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. Auburn is 24-2 overall and 12-1 overall. Since a wakeup call against Florida on February 8, head coach Bruce Pearl’s crew has won 3 games in a row at the expense of Vanderbilt, second-ranked Alabama and Arkansas. The Tigers are very deep, as they feature 6 guys who are averaging in double-figures. Johni Broome leads the way with 18.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. Chaney Johnson comes off the bench to score 10.5 ppg and he has delivered at least 13 points in five consecutive contests — a stretch that includes a 20-point performance.

It’s a much different story for Georgia, which may be playing itself out of NCAA Tournament consideration. The Bulldogs are 2-10 in their last 12 outings and have dropped 3 straight heading into this weekend. Guard Tyrin Lawrence missed the last 2 games with a leg injury and is questionable for Saturday. He is fifth on UGA in minutes, fifth in points, second in assists, sixth in rebounds and third in steals. Georgia lost to Auburn by only 2 points in the first meeting, but that was at home and it was in mid-January when head coach Mike White’s squad was balling. Now the Dawgs are reeling. This will probably be a beatdown, but I would tread lightly considering it’s a massive spread favoring a team that generally doesn’t completely destroy opponents.

Georgia vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -17.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a fascinating Big 12 matchup on our hands on Saturday when the Kansas Jayhawks host the sneaky hot Oklahoma State Cowboys. What a difference a month makes for this Kansas program. After suffering a catastrophic loss at home to Houston on January 25 — a game in which Kansas led by 6 and was at the free throw line with less than 20 seconds remaining in overtime — the Jayhawks have looked like a broken team. After all, Bill Self’s squad hardly ever loses multiple games at Allen Fieldhouse in the same season, and certainly not in the fashion that these losses occurred. The Jayhawks road woes came to light in the games to follow, as Kansas blew a 21-point halftime lead to Baylor and followed that up with a loss at Kansas State, plus a pair of embarrassing defeats to Utah and BYU in the last week. Surrendering 91 points in a 34-point loss to BYU on the road is certainly a new low for Kansas this season, but even with these recent disastrous performances in mind, the underlying metrics would tell you that Kansas is still a top 20-caliber team. While that doesn’t appear to be the case at the moment, the Jayhawks have certainly looked like it on multiple occasions this season, most recently in a dominant victory over Iowa State on February 3 at Allen Fieldhouse. Therefore, while it’s not my favorite play on the board by any means, Saturday’s game against Oklahoma State should provide a chance for Kansas to put that awful road trip to rest and cover this number at home.

The Cowboys have been a pretty middling team all season long, and even though they’ve been playing well over the last 6 games, the metrics still reflect that. Oklahoma State is 132nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (Barttorvik), and those marks are hardly much better since Big 12 play started. The results have also not been pretty each time they have stepped up in class on the road this season. Most recently, Oklahoma State lost to TCU and got routed by Kansas to the tune of a 28-point defeat. With those struggles in mind, don’t expect the Cowboys to score much against Kansas’ strong defense (5th in adjusted defensive efficiency). On the other side of the ball, Kansas certainly has the ability to create matchup issues with Flory Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson playing at the same time, which has been a successful pairing when Self has gone to it in recent weeks. Yes, Kansas has struggled away from Allen Fieldhouse, but this is a home game following a couple of atrocious efforts. Let’s lay the points with Kansas on Saturday.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -14.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels will be looking to extend their winning streak to 3 games when they host the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina is coming off consecutive victories over Syracuse and N.C. State in which it scored 88 and 97 points, respectively. Lightning up the scoreboard is commonplace for this UNC program and the 2024-25 iteration is no exception. The Tar Heels are #39 in the nation in scoring with an average of 80.9 points per game. They are #27 in pace of play (possessions per game), so their games are generally high scoring even if the shooting percentages aren’t off the charts. Four different guys are averaging double-figures and RJ Davis (17.5 ppg) has scored at least 18 points in 3 of the last 4 outings. He has delivered at least 21 points in 3 of the last 8.

These are not your grandfather’s Cavaliers. In fact, they aren’t even your older brother’s Cavaliers. It wasn’t long ago that Virginia played the slowest basketball and the best defense in the nation, but that version of the Washoos is long gone now that former head coach Tony Bennett has departed. This year’s UVA squad doesn’t play very good defense, but at the same time it can actually put the ball in the hoop on offense. The ‘Hoos have scored more than 70 points in 5 of their past 6 contests; they gave up 80 to Duke earlier this week and have allowed more than that on 2 other occasions dating back to mid-January. Isaac McKneely (13.7 ppg) has exceeded his average in 7 of the last 8 outings. Playing inside the Dean Dome, North Carolina should be able to control the game and make it a borderline track meet. The Cavaliers probably can’t quite keep up, but at the same time they won’t turn into a boring slog like they would have made sure to do in previous years. I’m backing the over with confidence.

Virginia vs North Carolina prediction: Over 143 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 145.

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In one of the marquee matchups of the day, the Kentucky Wildcats (18-8) will head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (21-5). These teams met once already this season, and it was highly entertaining. The Tide went into Rupp Arena and scored 102 points in a 5-point victory, connecting on 13 of their 34 perimeter attempts. Kentucky lit it up too, as the Wildcats made 11 of their 27 3-point shots. This time around, Alabama enters this matchup on a 2-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been battling injuries to a majority of its back court. However, the ‘Cats managed to bounce back from a loss at Texas last week with a convincing home win against Vanderbilt despite not having Lamont Butler or Jaxson Robinson.

At the time of writing, Butler and Robinson are not expected to be back for this game. Butler went through some modified live sessions in practice on Friday per head coach Mark Pope, while Robinson worked on light skills drills on the side. That doesn’t sound like their return is imminent on Saturday. Butler and Robinson were huge assets for Kentucky in the first meeting against the Tide. Butler put up 17 points with 8 assists, 2 steals and 1 block, while Robinson stretched the floor with a trio of 3s on 7 attempts. Without their combined scoring and Butler’s perimeter defense this time around, I have a hard time seeing the ‘Cats hanging around for a full 40 minutes – especially against an Alabama team that is likely seething to snap its 2-game losing streak. 

Bolstered by 50 combined points per game from Mark Sears, Labaron Philon, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway, Alabama’s back court is simply too loaded for some fully healthy teams to hold down, let alone a team hampered with injuries to its back court like Kentucky. The Tide should be able to take full advantage of a Kentucky defense that is 318th in 3-point rate allowed while yielding more than 81 points per game on the road. In fact, Kentucky is probably due for a bit of 3-point regression defensively, and the same can be said for Alabama offensively. The Wildcats allow an average of 28.5 perimeter attempts per game on the road, which is 12th-most nationally. Fortunately for them, opponents have made only 28.8% of those attempts, which is 13th-lowest. Similarly, the Tide take 29 3-pointers per home game, which is top 15 nationally, yet they have made less than 30% of them to this point. Something has to give, and with the absences of Butler and Robinson combined with a potential motivational advantage for Alabama, I think it will be Kentucky’s back court that proves to be the weak link in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Kentucky is 349th nationally in Haslametric’s Away From Home, which makes sense given the 10% dip in the Wildcats’ effective field-goal percentage when not playing at Rupp. Expect a fully focused effort from the Tide in this one, as they could fall out of position for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament with a loss on Saturday.

Kentucky vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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A few weeks ago, this would’ve been one of my most anticipated games of the February slate. However, Illinois has been pretty disappointing in recent weeks, and it doesn’t help matters that the Illini are dealing with a flu outbreak that completely overwhelmed the roster prior to their previous game against Wisconsin. On the other side, Duke has been rolling, as the Blue Devils enter this matchup with a 23-3 record on the year (15-1 in ACC play). With that said, it’s not as if Duke has played great competition in what has been a putrid ACC this season. What the Blue Devils do have is a terrific defense, and that should travel to Madison Square Garden for this neutral site matchup against an Illinois offense that shouldn’t be at full health on Saturday. Despite some advantages that Duke has on paper, I’m going to focus on the total in this inter-conference clash at MSG instead of a side.

Neutral-site unders at Madison Square Garden have been a consistent moneymaker over the years, and we have a heavy favorite in Duke that should look to control the game by playing at a deliberate pace, as the Blue Devils sit at 272nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom. An up-tempo game is one that favors the way Illinois likes to play, but it’s reasonable to suggest that Brad Underwood’s side may slow things down a bit here, especially if they are compromised in any way due to the flu. The numbers seem to bear that logic out, as the Illini are 43rd percentile in pace of play over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). Not only does Duke play at a slow tempo, but the Blue Devils are elite on the glass and shouldn’t allow many second-chance opportunities as a result, which is imperative when backing an under in college basketball. I don’t think we’ll see a large disparity in shot volume as well, which should also favor the under in a game where possessions should be reduced compared to what the season-long data would suggest. Let’s back the under at The World’s Most Famous Arena on Saturday.

Illinois vs Duke prediction: Under 155.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.

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Missouri is one of the hottest teams in the SEC right now and on Saturday they’ll be looking to continue their winning streak as they get ready to take on Arkansas.  Missouri is coming off a big performance against No.4 ranked Alabama, winning by a finals core of 110-98.  The Tigers shot 60.3% from the field and got to the free throw line 47 times, which played a critical role in their victory, and they’ll be looking to take that momentum into Saturday’s matchup. Despite losing 3 of their last 4, Arkansas had a chance to knock off Auburn, Texas A&M, and Alabama.  Tonight, Missouri enters as a slight favorite and I think they’ll be able to cover this low spread and here’s why. 

On the season, Missouri is averaging 83.7 points per game while giving up 70.1.  Missouri shoots 48.5% from the field and they’re holding their opponents to just 42.8% from the field.  As for Arkansas, they’re averaging 75.5 points per game and have a comparable defense to Missouri only giving up 68.8 points per game.  Arkansas is shooting 46.5% from the field and their opponents are shooting 41.6%.  I think a big part of this game is going to come down to ball control. Missouri will apply the same type of pressure to Arkansas like they did Bama, forcing them to turn the ball 14 times, and that’s something Arkansas cannot do if they want to keep this game close. I think this Missouri team is clicking very well right now and it’s going to be tough for Arkansas to beat, even on their home court, which makes Missouri my best bet of the day. 

Missouri vs Arkansas prediction: Missouri -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Arguably the biggest game of the WCC regular season slate will take place on Saturday in the Pacific Northwest, as the Gonzaga Bulldogs will host the Saint Mary’s Gaels in what should be a heated battle between the top 2 teams in the conference. The first meeting between these teams back on February 1 won’t tell us everything, but it can be instructive as it relates to this matchup. In that game, Gonzaga closed as a 2.5-point favorite on the road and was in great position to win that game before ultimately falling short in the final minutes. With that in mind, the fact that we’re getting just a 2-point line adjustment for the flipping of home court is pretty disrespectful to a Bulldogs team that still profiles better than Saint Mary’s from a metrics perspective and has historically owned this series at the Kennel. 

It’s fair to assume that the Zags probably won’t turn in a paltry 3-of-17 (17.6%) performance from beyond the arc at home this time around, with many of those missing coming on wide open looks. On the other side, the Gaels (238th in free-throw rate) offense wasn’t overly efficient in that game — a sign that Mark Few’s team knows how to defend Saint Mary’s in the halfcourt — but they nearly doubled Gonzaga in free-throw attempts, while limiting the Bulldogs to just 7 fast break points. Gonzaga will likely go as far as its guards take them this season, and I’d expect the backcourt trio to be more aggressive in this game after combining for just 19 total shots in the first meeting. It all starts with one of the best point guards in the nation in Ryan Nembhard, but Nolan Hickman and Khalif Battle are also essential to the success of this offense, particularly in a matchup against an excellent defense like St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs also get a ton of points at the rim thanks to Graham Ike in the middle, and he dominated the post against Mitchell Saxon in the first meeting. If the Gaels are forced to collapse on the big man, there should be lanes for the Gonzaga guards to cut to the rim, or free themselves away from the help defense for wide open 3-point attempts. As long as the Bulldogs don’t turn in another horrific shooting performance, they should even the season series with their rivals at home.

Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga prediction: Gonzaga -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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The jewel of the late games on Saturday will be the BYU Cougars vs the Arizona Wildcats in a key Big 12 clash. If you aren’t paying close attention, you might be surprised to learn that BYU is suddenly one of the best teams in the country, checking in at 30^th in KenPom and 20^th in Torvik’s rankings. They are fresh off a clobbering of Kansas, 91-57, and they have climbed up to 5^th in the conference standings. They will have their work cut out for them to keep that going though, as the Arizona Wildcats sit in second place in the conference at 12-3. These teams played only a couple of short weeks ago, and Arizona took the game on the Cougars’ home court by a score of 85-74. I expect a very similar result in the rematch, and thus I am taking Arizona on the spread at -7.5.

The key to this game will be the 3-pt shooting of BYU. The Cougars live outside, and Arizona is not a great team at defending the 3. In the first meeting, BYU made a paltry 8 triples (compared to 14 in their blistering of Kansas this week), and they will need to hit more than that to compete on Saturday. I like this BYU team, and I think they are dangerous. Away from home, however, they are just not the same squad. They are 13-2 at home and only 3-5 on the road, and the McKale Center is one of the tougher environments they will play in. I don’t think Arizona will blow the Cougs out of the water, and this number is probably going to be pretty close to on target, but if I am playing this game on Saturday night, I lean Arizona to cover at home.

BYU vs Arizona Prediction: Arizona -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.