Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 34 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a fight in the welterweight division as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 34 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 34 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Main card best bets
Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad ML (+160)
Belal Muhammad comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-3. He is 11-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision back in December of 2021. Muhammad is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.20 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and his takedown defense is 91%.
This is actually a rematch of a fight from 2016 where Vicente Luque beat Muhammad by KO/TKO. This was Muhammad’s only loss by a finish in his career and since that fight, he has gone 10-1. Another KO/TKO for Luque is certainly a possibility, but Muhammad has improved immensely. Muhammad has also proven to be an elite grappler, so backing him to pull the upset will be the play.
Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev ML (-135)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will also be his UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series where he beat Jansey Silva by submission last October. Omargadzhiev is averaging 2.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 66%. He is absorbing 0.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 3.47 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.5 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100%.
This fight feels very evenly matched, but the grappling for Omargadzhiev looks to be the biggest edge on either side. In large part because he has proven to be so good on the ground, backing Omargadzhiev is the recommended play.
Preliminary card best bets
Rafa Garcia ML (+100) vs Jesse Ronson
Rafa Garcia comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-2. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Nathan Levy by unanimous decision back in November of 2021. Garcia is averaging 3.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35%. He is absorbing 5.47 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling will also be important here as he is averaging 4.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 44% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Jesse Ronson has not been good so far in the UFC as shown by his record of 0-3 in the promotion. Garcia does not have a great UFC record either, but his grappling will surely be the difference here. For that reason, backing Garcia to win this fight is our recommended play.
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