UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC on ESPN 30: Chikadze looking for the upset

UFC on ESPN 30 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a featherweight fight as the main event.

We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 30 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 30 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC on ESPN 30 main card best bets

Edson Barboza vs Giga Chikadze Money Line (+105)

Giga Chikadze comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-2. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Cub Swanson by TKO/KO back in May of this year. This was also his 6th win in a row. Chikadze is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 2.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also not been great, averaging just 0.38 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 68%.

This fight looks to be very even with both guys coming in on winning streaks. However, winning 6 fights in a row in no easy feat for Chikadze. He looks to be a potential contender for the Featherweight title very soon, so backing him to outlast the veteran will be the play here.

Kevin Lee vs Daniel Rodriguez Money Line (+125)

Daniel Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-2. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Preston Parsons by TKO/KO back in July of this year. Rodriguez is averaging 8.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 5.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. He is a decent grappler, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Rodriguez has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 83%.

Rodriguez has been nearly perfect in the UFC, only losing to Nicolas Dalby back in November of 2020. He has never been knocked out in the UFC either. His striking looks to be much better than Kevin Lee’s and he does a great job at defending takedowns. For that reason, backing Rodriguez to continue his run in the Middleweight division will be the play here.

UFC on ESPN 30 preliminary card best bets

Sam Alvey vs Wellington Turman Money Line (-130)

Wellington Turman comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-5. He is 1-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Bruno Silva by TKO/KO back in June of 2020. Turman is averaging 2.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 3.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 22% and his takedown defense is 100%.

For this fight we have 2 rather inconsistent fighters–especially Sam Alvey, who has not won since June of 2018. Because of that fact, backing Turman will be the play.