Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC Fight Night 205 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a fight in the women’s strawweight division as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 205 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 205 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Main card best bets
Amanda Lemos ML (+175) vs Jessica Andrade
Amanda Lemos comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1-1. She is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Angela Hill by split decision back in December of 2021. Lemos is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. She is absorbing 4.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 57% and her takedown defense is 87%.
Both of these ladies have been gaining momentum in the UFC, but Lemos looks to be the more consistent fighter. She has won 5 fights in a row in the UFC, last losing in 2017. Jessica Andrade is 2-3 in her last 5 UFC fights, and while she has shown plenty of power and ability to fight on the ground, Lemos’ ability to defend takedowns could make the difference here. She also has done a better job at absorbing damage, so backing Lemos to pull the upset will be the play.
Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles ML (-105)
Claudio Puelles comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Chris Gruetzemacher by submission back in December of 2021. Puelles is averaging 2.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 2.98 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is solid, averaging 2.87 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 38% and his takedown defense is 55%.
This fight is pretty evenly matched, but Puelles is the up-and-coming fighter, who has had an impressive start to his UFC career. Despite the recent win for Clay Guida, he is only 2-3 in his last 5 UFC fights and 5-5 in his last 10 UFC fights. Because Puelles has slightly better striking to go along with his great grappling, backing him to win this fight will be the play.
Preliminary card best bets
Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)
Ike Villanueva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-13. He is 1-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Nicolae Negumereanu by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Villanueva is averaging 4.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 7.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 37%.
Tyson Pedro comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-3. He is 3-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Mauricio Rua by KO/TKO all the way back in October of 2018. Pedro is averaging 2.70 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 2.55 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%.
Pedro is one of the biggest favorites on the card, but having not fought in the UFC in over 3 years, makes backing him a risky play. Villanueva has 15 wins by KO/TKO in his career and also has 7 losses by the same method, including all 4 of his UFC fights. This should be a back-and-forth fight between 2 guys with a ton of power, so backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
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