Matthew Lowrimore
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Need a break from March Madness? We’ve also got some UFC to look forward to this weekend. UFC Fight Night 204 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. The card features a heavyweight fight as the main event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 204 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 204 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 204 main card best bets
Tom Aspinall ML (-125) vs Alexander Volkov
Tom Aspinall comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-2. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Serghei Spivac by KO/TKO back in September of 2021. Aspinall is averaging 7.19 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 65%. He is absorbing 2.37 strikes and has a striking defense of 70%. His grappling is also very solid, averaging 2.73 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is also 100%.
Alexander Volkov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 34-9. Volkov is averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 2.95 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is not as strong, averaging just 0.53 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 70% and his takedown defense is 73%.
While this fight is pretty evenly matched, Aspinall is much more balanced and has been perfect in the UFC. His striking and power is the difference here, so backing him to win will be the play.
Arnold Allen ML (-115) vs Dan Hooker
Arnold Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-1. He is 8-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Sodiq Yusuff by unanimous decision back in April of 2021. Allen is averaging 2.96 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 2.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 66%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 1.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and his takedown defense is 76%.
Dan Hooker comes into this fight 11-7 in the UFC, most recently losing to Islam Makhachev by submission back in October of 2021. Hooker is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 4.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.90 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36%, while his takedown defense is 78%.
Hooker has shown some vulnerabilities recently, making Allen an intriguing side here. He is perfect in the UFC and has won most of his fights in convincing fashion. For that reason, backing Allen to stay perfect in the UFC will be the play.
UFC Fight Night 204 preliminary card best bets
Jack Shore ML (+100) vs Timur Valiev
Jack Shore comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Liudvik Sholinian by unanimous decision back in September of 2021. Shore is averaging 4.03 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 1.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. Shore is a master at grappling, averaging 4.47 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 41% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Timur Valiev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-2. Valiev is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 55% of the time. He is absorbing 2.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is starting to improve as well, averaging 1.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Both fighters are undefeated in the UFC, but Shore being undefeated in his career makes him worth a look. He is more balanced as well and has elite grappling, so backing Shore to win will be the play.
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