Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 203 takes place on Saturday at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a light heavyweight fight as the main event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 203 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 203 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 203 main card best bets
Magomed Ankalev vs Thiago Santo – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-130)
Magomed Ankalev comes into this fight 7-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 2.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%.
Thiago Santos comes into this fight 14-8 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%.
Ankalev is a massive favorite here, taking the money line out of play. He has 8 wins by KO/TKO and Santos has 15 wins by the same method. Recently both guys have been seeing their fights go the distance, but they both have too much power to expect the same here. For that reason, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney ML (+146)
Terrance McKinney comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Fares Ziam by submission in February of this year. McKinney is averaging 1.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. He is absorbing 0.55 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling has been elite so far in the UFC, averaging 3.29 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 33% and he has never been taken down in the UFC.
McKinney’s win a few weeks ago was promising because of how quickly he won. His grappling will likely be the difference here and Drew Dober has lost 4 times by submission. For that reason, backing McKinney to win his 3rd straight fight will be the play.
UFC Fight Night 203 preliminary card best bets
AJ Fletcher vs Matthew Semelsberger – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-135)
Matthew Semelsberger comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-3. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Martin Sano by KO/TKO back in September of 2021. He is averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Semelsberger is absorbing 5.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%.
AJ Fletcher comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC; however, this will be his official UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, where he beat Leonardo Damiani by KO/TKO back in August of 2021. He is averaging 4.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 1.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 76%.
Semelsberger’s takedown defense will likely keep this fight standing where he tends to excel. He has 6 wins by KO/TKO in his career and Fletcher has 4 by the same method. For that reason, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
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