Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 202 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a catchweight fight as the main event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 202 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 202 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 202 main card best bets
Rong Zhu vs Ignacio Bahamondes: Fight to go the Distance – No (-105)
Rong Zhu comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-4. He is 1-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Brandon Jenkins by KO/TKO back in September of 2021. Zhu is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 4.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 4.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 75% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Ignacio Bahamondes comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-4. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Roosevelt Roberts by KO/TKO back in August of 2021. Bahamondes is averaging 7.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 5.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. He has yet to show much grappling skill but does defend takedowns 100% of the time.
Both of these guys have very high finish rates with Bahamondes having seen 11 of his 16 career fights end inside the distance and 20 of Zhu’s 22 career fights ending inside the distance as well. Because of this, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
UFC Fight Night 202 preliminary card best bets
Terrance McKinney ML (+100) vs Fares Ziam
Terrance McKinney comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-3. He is 1-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Matt Frevola by KO/TKO back in June of 2021. McKinney is averaging 1.73 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 0.58 strikes and has a striking defense of 66%. His grappling could play a big role here, considering he is averaging 4.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
This fight looks very evenly matched, but the grappling from McKinney looks to be the biggest difference. Pair that with McKinney having won all his career fights inside the distance and backing him looks to be the right side.
Ramiz Brahimaj Win by Submission (-120) vs Micheal Gillmore
Ramiz Brahimaj comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-4 and 1-2 in the UFC. Brahimaj is averaging 2.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 4.36 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is decent as well, averaging 1.52 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 60% and his takedown defense is 58% despite being taken down 5 times in his most recent loss. Brahimaj has won all 9 of his fights by submission, so backing the same here looks to be worth a small play.
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