Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 199 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a heavyweight fight as the main event. This will also be the final UFC event of 2021, so there are sure to be some fireworks to close out the year.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 199 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 199 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 199 main card best bets
Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus ML (-145)
Chris Daukaus comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO/KO back in September of this year. Daukaus is averaging 9.03 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. He has not shown any grappling ability in the UFC yet, but does have a takedown defense of 100%.
Daukaus has been perfect so far in the UFC and his power is starting to show. Derrick Lewis has plenty of power as well, but his chin has also been a concern at times. For that reason, backing the higher volume striker, Daukaus, will be the top play here.
Stephen Thompson vs Belal Muhammad ML (+180)
Belal Muhammad comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-3. He is 10-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Demian Maia by unanimous decision back in June of this year. He is averaging 4.61 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 3.80 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Muhammad is a solid grappler, averaging 1.80 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 28%, but his takedown defense is 91%.
Stephen Thompson is a big favorite here, but his lack of grappling ability could be a concern. Muhammad is the more balanced fighter and has won 5 fights in a row, so backing him to score the upset will be the play.
Angela Hill vs Amanda Lemos – Win by Decision (-110)
Amanda Lemos comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1-1. She is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Montserrat Conejo back in July of this year. Lemos is averaging 6.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. She is absorbing 5.38 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.95 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy and takedown defense are both 100%.
Angela Hill has been wildly inconsistent in the UFC and has lost 3 of her last 4 fights. One thing she has done well is not be finished. Hill has lost inside the distance in only 2 of her UFC fights, so even though Lemos has very good striking and solid grappling, backing Lemos to win by a decision will be the top play.
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