UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night 196: Dawson remains perfect

UFC Fight Night 196 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a middleweight division fight as the main event.

We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 196 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 196 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 196 main card best bets

Grant Dawson Win by Finish (+130) vs Ricky Glenn

Grant Dawson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-1. He is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Leonardo Santos by TKO/KO back in March of this year. Dawson is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.10 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. Grappling will likely be his preferred method of fighting, averaging 3.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 40%.

Dawson looks far too strong in this fight; it just is a matter of how he will win. He does have 4 wins by finish in the UFC and 15 of his 17 career fights have been wins by finish as well. For that reason, backing Dawson to win by finish looks to be the best play.

Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-135)

Francisco Trinaldo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 26-8. He is 16-7 in the UFC, most recently losing to Muslim Salikhov by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Trinaldo is averaging 3.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 2.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling has been solid as well, averaging 1.03 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 60%.

Dwight Grant comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-3. He is 4-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Stefan Sekulic by split decision back in April of this year. Grant is averaging 3.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 36%. He is absorbing 2.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Grant has some grappling ability, averaging 0.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. The positive here is that he lands his takedowns 100% of the time, while defending them 71% of the time.

Trinaldo is getting older, but has not lost by a finish since 2017. He did win 1 fight by finish in 2020, but Grant looks to have good enough defense to avoid the big blow. For that reason, backing this fight to go the distance will be the play.

UFC Fight Night 196 preliminary card best bets

Junyong Park Money Line (+100) vs Gregory Rodrigues

Junyong Park comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Tafon Nchukwi by majority decision back in May of this year. Park is averaging 4.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 3.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Park’s grappling will likely be a big part of this fight, averaging 3.02 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 57%, and has a takedown defense of 46%.

This fight is evenly matched, though Park looks to be the right side. He is a better grappler and slightly better at absorbing damage. For that reason, backing Park as a small underdog will be the play.