Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 269 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a lightweight title fight as the main event and will also include a women’s bantamweight title fight as the co-main event.
We are sharing our UFC 269 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 269 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 269 main card best bets
Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio ML (-130)
Santiago Ponzinibbio comes into this fight with an MMA record of 29-4. He is 10-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Miguel Baeza by unanimous decision in June. Ponzinibbio is averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 4.38 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. He is also not much of a grappler, averaging 0.46 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36% and his takedown defense is 60%.
This fight is fairly even, but with Geoff Neal having lost 2 fights in a row, he is starting to become a little inconsistent. Ponzinibbio has a little bit better striking, so backing him to win looks to be worth a play.
Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley by TKO/KO (+110)
Sean O’Malley comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. He is 7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Kris Moutinho by TKO/KO in July. O’Malley is averaging 8.25 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 3.59 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. Similar to his opponent, his grappling is not super strong, averaging 0.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 60%.
O’Malley is a huge favorite, making his money line not worth a play. He has won 6 of his 7 UFC fights by TKO/KO, including his last 5 fights in a row. For that reason, backing O’Malley to win by TKO/KO for the 6th straight fight looks to be worth a play because of his high-volume striking.
UFC 269 preliminary card best bets
Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz ML (+100)
Dominick Cruz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 23-3. He is 13-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Casey Kenney by split decision in March. Cruz is averaging 3.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 32%. He is absorbing 2.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 72%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 2.99 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 46% and his takedown defense is 83%.
Since returning to the UFC after a 4-year layoff, Cruz is 1-1, but losing only to former champion Henry Cejudo. Pedro Munhoz has become somewhat inconsistent, losing 3 of his last 4 fights. His lack of grappling could be the difference, so backing Cruz looks to be worth a play.
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