Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 51 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Nevada, Las Vegas. This card features a welterweight fight between Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +447 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 51 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Vicente Luque vs Rafael Dos Anjos – Fight to go the Distance – No (-165)
With this fight being every evenly matched, we will instead look to a fight prop. Rafael Dos Anjos has seen his last 2 fights end inside the distance. Vicente Luque has seen 5 of his last 6 fights end inside the distance, therefore back the same prop here will be our lean.
Hakeem Dawodu ML over Cub Swanson (-230)
Hakeem Dawodu comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-3-1. He is 6-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Julian Erosa by unanimous decision back in September of 2022. Dawodu is averaging 5.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 3.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Dawodu will not be looking to grapple, but he does have a takedown defense of 65%.
Dawodu is the heavy favorite in this fight, and appears to be the right bet. He has the better striking and his takedown defense has been strong. For that reason, backing Dawodu to win will be our play.
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Khalil Roundtree Jr. ML over Chris Daukaus (-180)
Khalil Roundtree Jr comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-5. He is 7-5 in the UFC, most recently beating Dustin Jacoby by split decision back in October of 2022. Roundtree Jr is averaging 3.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. He is absorbing 4.19 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. Roundtree Jr has shown no grappling skills, but has a takedown defense of 54%.
Roundtree Jr is a heavy favorite but looks to be the right play. Chris Daukaus has been too inconsistent to trust, therefore backing Roundtree Jr will be our lean.
Josh Fremd vs Jamie Pickett – Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Josh Fremd is one of the biggest favorites on this card, making his money line not an ideal play to make. Instead, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Jamie Pickett has seen his last 3 fights end inside the distance, while Fremd has seen 3 of his last 4 fights do the same. For that reason, our play for this fight will be for it to end inside the distance.
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