Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 49 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s bantamweight fight between Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 49 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 49 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC on ESPN 49 Main Card best bets
Mayra Bueno Silva ML over Holly Holm (+150)
Mayra Bueno Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2-1. She is 6-2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Lina Lansberg by submission back in February of this year. Silva is averaging 4.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. She is absorbing 4.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Her grappling is not great, averaging just 0.38 takedowns per every 15 minutes. However, she is averaging 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. She also has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 67%.
Holly Holm is a heavy favorite in this fight, but Silva should be considered a live dog. Silva has the better grappling in terms of forcing submissions, and she has won 3 fights in a row. For that reason, backing her to pull the upset will be our play.
Ottman Azaitar ML over Francisco Prado (-105)
Ottman Azaitar comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating losing to Matt Frevola by KO/TKO back in November of 2022. Azaitar is averaging 6.97 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 2.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. He has not shown any grappling ability, but does have a takedown defense of 100%.
This is likely the most evenly matched fight on the card and both fighters have a decent chance to win. That being said, Azaitar has far better striking and has won by finish in 13 of his 14 career fights. For that reason, backing Azaitar to win will be our best play.
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Chelsea Chandler ML over Norma Dumont (+120)
Chelsea Chandler comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-1. She is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Julija Stoliarenjo by KO/TKO back in October of 2022. Chandler is averaging 8.94 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. She is absorbing 2.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. She has not shown much grappling ability, but does have a takedown defense of 66%.
Norma Dumont is decent-sized favorite, but based on her dominant UFC debut, Chandler should be considered a live dog. Chandler has the clear advantage in striking, in terms of volume, and her takedown defense has been strong as well. For that reason, backing Chandler to pull off the small upset will be our play.
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