Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 48 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a middleweight fight between Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +382 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 48 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Michael Morales ML over Max Griffin (-250)
Michael Morales comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Adam Fugitt by KO/TKO in July 2022. Morales is averaging 5.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 4.10 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling has looked elite, averaging 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and his takedown defense is 86%.
Morales is a heavy favorite in this fight. However, he has the superior striking and grappling, therefore backing Morales will be our play.
Melissa Gatto ML over Ariane Lipski (-215)
Melissa Gatto has an MMA record of 8-1-2. She is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Tracy Cortez by unanimous decision in May 2022. Gatto is averaging 3.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. She is absorbing 2.60 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.68 takedowns every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 33% and her takedown defense is 70%.
Gatto is a huge favorite in this fight, so even though Ariane Lipski has the edge in striking, Gatto’s grappling ability looks to be the biggest difference. For that reason, backing Gatto to win will be our play.
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Ismael Bonfim vs Benoit Saint Denis – Fight to go the Distance – No (-165)
Ismael Bonfim is one of the bigger favorites on this card, so his money line looks too risky to back. This fight is more likely going to end by finish as Bonfim has seen 10 of his 11 fights end inside the distance, while Saint Denis has seen 16 of his 22 fights do the same. Because both fighters have very high finish rates, backing this fight to do the same will be our play.
Brunno Ferreira ML over Nursulton Ruziboev (-215)
Brunno Ferreira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO in January. Ferreira is averaging 6.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 5.34 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. He has not shown any grappling ability so far, but has a takedown defense of 100%.
Ferreira is the clear favorite in this fight and given the fact that he is perfect in the UFC, he still looks to be the best play. Nursulton Ruziboev certainly has some impressive finishing stats, but stepping up to the UFC to fight Ferreira is a different level of competition. For that reason, backing Ferreira to win will be our play.
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