Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 48 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a middleweight fight between Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 48 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 48 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC on ESPN 48 Main Card best bets
Abus Magomedov ML over Sean Strickland (+130)
Abus Magomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-4-1. He is 1-0 in the UFC, beating Dustin Stolzfus by KO/TKO in September 2022. Magomedov is averaging 22.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 100%. He has yet to absorb a strike through 1 UFC fight, and has a striking defense of 100%.
Sean Strickland is a moderate-sized favorite in this fight, but Magomedov was more than impressive in his debut and could easily pull the upset. He has superior striking, while Strickland is only 1-2 in his last 3 UFC fights. Because of that, backing Magomedov to win will be our play.
Grant Dawson ML over Damir Ismagulov (-105)
Grant Dawson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-1-1. He is a perfect 8-0-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Mark Madsen by submission in November 2022. Dawson is averaging 3.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 2.41 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. Grappling will likely be his preferred method of fighting, averaging 3.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 40%.
This fight is pretty much even with Damir Ismagulov as a small favorite. That being said, Dawson looks like the better play because his grappling is superior.
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UFC on ESPN 48 Preliminary Card best bet
Alexandr Romanov ML over Blagoy Ivanov (-135)
Alexandr Romanov has an MMA record of 16-2 and 5-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Romanov is absorbing 2.00 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 4.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time. His takedown accuracy is 52% and his takedown defense is 20%. Romanov has the superior striking and grappling, therefore backing him to win will be our play.
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