Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 44 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. This card features a featherweight fight between Max Holloway and Arnold Allen as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 44 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 44 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC on ESPN 44 Main Card best bets
Arnold Allen ML over Max Holloway (+145)
Arnold Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-1. He is 10-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Calvin Kattar by KO/TKO in October of 2022. Arnold is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 2.25 strikes and has a striking defense of 67%. His grappling is solid, as well, averaging 1.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Allen has a takedown accuracy of 50% and his takedown defense is 76%.
Max Holloway is a large favorite in this fight but has been inconsistent recently, losing 3 of his last 5 UFC fights. Allen on the other hand, is perfect in the UFC and his wins against Kattar and Dan Hooker were very impressive. Holloway has the striking advantage in terms of volume, but Allen is a much better grappler. Allen has never lost a fight by finish and looks to be a legitimate featherweight title contender. For that reason, backing Allen to pull the upset will be my play.
Azamat Murzakanov ML over Dustin Jacoby (+135)
Azamat Murzakanov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Devin Clark by KO/TKO in August of 2022. Murzakanov is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. He is absorbing 2.44 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. Murzakanov’s grappling has been decent at best, averaging 0.60 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 14% and he has not been taken down in the UFC.
The fact that Dustin Jacoby is the favorite is puzzling, given the perfect start for Murzakanov. Murzakanov has won all of his UFC fights by KO/TKO, so even though his striking volume is not as strong as Jacoby’s, backing Murzakanov to remain unbeaten is smart because he has the power to be able to control this fight.
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UFC on ESPN 44 Preliminary Card best bet
Piera Rodriguez ML over Gillian Robertson (+105)
Piera Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0 and she is 3-0 in the UFC. She is averaging 3.91 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Rodriguez is absorbing 3.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Her grappling has been elite, averaging 3.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 39% and a takedown defense of 77%.
Gillian Robertson is the small favorite, but she is just 2-3 in her last 5 UFC fights. Rodriguez has the superior striking and grappling; as such, backing her to remain unbeaten is my bet.
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