Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 42 takes place on Saturday at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. This card features a welterweight fight between Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this card, with odds of +446 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 42 predictions for the 6-fight Main Card.
Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland – Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Kevin Holland is a moderate sized favorite in this fight, but he has been a little inconsistent recently, just 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Stephen Thompson has been equally inconsistent, 2-4 in his last 6 fights in the UFC. Thompson has seen 5 of his last 6 fights end by decision, but Holland has seen each of his last 3 fights end inside the distance. Holland has 19 finishes in his career, so for that reason, also backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the lean.
Bryan Barberena vs Rafael Dos Anjos – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-175)
Rafael Dos Anjos is a significant favorite in this fight, but his recent fights would suggest he is much too risky to back here. He is 2-3 over his last 5 UFC fights, while Bryan Barberena is 4-1 during the same stretch. Barberena is actually the one with the superior striking and while Dos Anjos has better grappling, Barberena has never lost by submission in the UFC. This is a tough fight to call, but both fighters have seen 4 of their last 5 UFC fights go the distance, therefore backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
Kyle Daukaus ML over Eryk Anders (-225)
Kyle Daukaus comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-3. He is 3-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO back in June of this year. Daukaus is averaging 3.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.36 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 31% and his takedown defense is 86%. Even though both guys come into this fight in rough shape, backing Daukaus still looks to be worth a small play based on the success he has had when grappling.
Francis Marshall ML over Marcelo Rojo (-165)
Francis Marshall comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-0. This will be his official UFC debut. Marshall is averaging 7.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 6.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Because Marshall has the superior striking and grappling, and Marcelo Rojo has struggled to begin his UFC career, backing Marshall to remain undefeated will be the play.
Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 42 predictions for a potential payout at +446 odds!
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