Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 41 takes place on Saturday at the Pechanga Arena in San Diego, California. This card features a bantamweight fight Marlon Vera and Dominick Cruz as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +404 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 41 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
UFC on ESPN 41 parlay (+404 odds)
Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-190)
Marlon Vera comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-7-1. He is 13-6 in the UFC, most recently beating Rob Font by unanimous decision in April. Vera is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 4.99 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%.
Dominick Cruz has an MMA record of 24-3. He is 14-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision in December 2021. Cruz is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 33%. He is absorbing 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 71%.
Vera is a heavy favorite in this fight, but Cruz should by no means be counted out. He has solid striking and his grappling volume is superior to that of Vera. Cruz has lost by KO/TKO only once in his career and that was to former bantamweight title holder, Henry Cejudo. His only loss by submission was in 2007, so Cruz should also be able to keep from losing by this method. Vera has never lost by finish, and has seen 4 of his last 6 fights go the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to do the same will be the play.
David Onama vs Nate Landwehr: Fight to go the Distance – No (-225)
David Onama is an overwhelming favorite in this fight, but Nate Landwehr’s ability to force a submission could keep him as a live dog. Onama has won all 10 of his career fights by finish, while Landwehr has seen 3 of his 4 UFC fights end inside the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 41 best bets!
Martin Buday vs Lukasz Brzeski: Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Martin Buday is a heavy favorite in this fight, and even though this is the UFC debut for Lukasz Brzeski, he should not be counted out due to his finishing ability. Buday has won 8 of his 10 career fights by finish, while Brzeski has won 7 of his 8 contests by finish. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the lean.
Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan: Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Josh Quinlan is a heavy favorite, but having not fought in the UFC makes him a risky play. He has won all 5 of his career fights by finish though, while Jason Witt has seen 20 of his 26 fights end inside the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 41 predictions for a potential payout at +404 odds!
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