Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 40 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a light heavyweight fight between Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +319 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 40 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
UFC on ESPN 40 parlay (+319 odds)
Jamahal Hill ML (-320) over Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Johnny Walker by KO/TKO back in February of this year. Hill is averaging 7.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%.
Hill is a huge favorite in this fight, which is warranted seeing as he has been knocking out his competition left and right. He has superior striking and his takedown defense has been strong enough to suggest he can keep this fight standing, especially knowing that Thiago Santos’ grappling is not world-class by any means. Santos is 1-4 in his last 5 UFC fights, therefore backing Hill will be the play.
Sam Alvey vs Michal Oleksiejczuk: Fight to go the Distance – No (-175)
Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the biggest favorites on this card and for good reason. Sam Alvey has lost 3 fights in a row and 7 of his last 8. He has not even won a fight since 2018, so it is clear that he is struggling. Of Alvey’s 51 career fights, 28 of them have ended inside the distance. As for Oleksiejczuk, 16 of his 21 career fights have ended inside the distance, including 5 of his last 7 fights. Four of Alvey’s last 7 losses have been by finish, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 40 best bets!
Bryan Battle ML (-280) over Takashi Sato
Bryan Battle comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Tresean Gore by unanimous decision back in February of this year. Battle is averaging 7.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 4.58 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling has been good so far, averaging 1.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 22% and his takedown defense is 55%.
Battle is a heavy favorite here, which looks to be warranted given the fact that he has superior striking. He also has won by submission 4 times in his career, while Takashi Sato has lost by submission 3 times in his career. Sato has also lost 2 fights in a row, while Battle is undefeated so far in the UFC. For that reason, backing Battle to remain undefeated in the UFC will be the play.
Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan: Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Josh Quinlan is a heavy favorite, but having not fought in the UFC makes him a risky play. He has won all 5 of his career fights by finish though, while Jason Witt has seen 20 of his 26 fights end inside the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 40 predictions for a potential payout at +319 odds!
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