Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 39 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a lightweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 39 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Let’s get into our parlay for Saturday’s card.
UFC on ESPN 39 parlay (+500 odds)
Rafael Fiziev ML (-210) over Rafael Dos Anjos
Rafael Fiziev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Brad Riddell by KO/TKO back in December of 2021. Fiziev is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 5.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is not quite as strong, averaging 0.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50%, and his takedown defense is 95%.
Fiziev is a big favorite here and for good reason as he has won 5 UFC fights in a row. Rafael Dos Anjos does have the edge in grappling, but Fiziev has a much higher striking volume and defends takedown nearly perfectly, therefore backing him to continue his win streak looks to be worth a play.
Caio Borralho ML (-215) over Armen Petrosyan
Caio Borralho comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gadzhi Omargadzhiev by unanimous decision back in April of this year. Borralho is averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 1.70 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling has also been solid so far, averaging 1.96 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 80% and his takedown defense is 75%.
Armen Petrosyan has the better striking in this fight, but Borralho is the more balanced fighter. His grappling could be the difference in this fight as well, especially with Petrosyan having already had struggles defending takedowns in his previous UFC fights. For that reason, Borralho looks to be worth a play.
Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 39 best bets!
Jared Vanderaa vs Chase Sherman – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)
Jared Vanderaa is actually a large favorite in this fight, but he probably doesn’t deserve to be. He has lost 3 fights in a row, and Chase Sherman has lost 4 fights in a row. Sherman has won 14 times in his career by KO/TKO out of his 15 wins, while having lost by the same method 4 times. Vanderaa has won 7 times by KO/TKO and has lost 3 times by the same method. Neither guy has very good grappling either, therefore backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Michael Johnson vs Jamie Mullarkey – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)
Jamie Mullarkey is a big favorite in this fight, but the fact that he has lost his last 3 fights in a row is a concern. All 3 of these losses were by KO/TKO, but he also has 10 wins by this method as well. Michael Johnson mainly has lost by submission, a method of victory that Mullarkey does not achieve very often. Johnson has 9 wins by KO/TKO in his career, so backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 39 predictions for a potential payout at +500 odds!
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