Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 36 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a light heavyweight fight as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 36 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 36 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Main card best bets
Louis Smolka vs Davey Grant – Fight to end by submission or decision (+105)
Louis Smolka comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-8. He has been inconsistent in the UFC, posting a record of 8-8. Smolka is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 3.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.81 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 37% and his takedown defense is 31%.
Davey Grant comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-6. He is 4-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Adrian Yanez by unanimous decision back in November of 2021. Grant is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 3.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is solid as well, averaging 1.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 44% and his takedown defense is 60%.
Both guys have the ability to fight on the ground and as a result, 16 of Smolka’s 25 career fights have ended by submission or decision. As for Grant, 16 of his 19 career fights have also ended by submission or decision. Grant has never lost by KO/TKO, and only has 3 wins by that method, so backing this fight to end by submission or decision will be the play.
Katlyn Chookagain vs Amanda Ribas – Fight to end by unanimous decision (-120)
Even though Katlyn Chookagain is a decent sized favorite, there does not look to be too much separating these ladies. Chookagain has won by unanimous decision in 13 of her 14 career decision wins, while all of Amanda Ribas’ decision wins have also been unanimous. Ribas might have the edge on the ground, but Chookagain has never lost by submission. This fight is more likely to be one-sided, so backing this fight to end by unanimous decision will be the play.
Frank Camacho vs Manuel Torres ML (-130)
Manuel Torres comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series where he beat Kolton Englund by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Torres is averaging 11.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 2.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 75%.
It is tempting to take Frank Camacho here, seeing that he is more of an experienced fighter in the UFC, however; he has been much too inconsistent. Torres showed a tremendous amount of power in his Contender Series fight, so backing him in his UFC debut is worth a look.
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