Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 36 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a light heavyweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +549. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 36 predictions for the full 11-fight card.
Tatsuro Taira ML (-240) vs Carlos Candelario
Tatsuro Taira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. This will be his UFC debut. Taira has been able to finish most of his fights, winning 3 times by KO/TKO and 5 times by submission. He also has won 7 times in the first fight, so a quick finish could be a possibility here.
Taira might be making his UFC debut, but he has been more than impressive throughout his career. Carlos Candelario has struggled to defend takedowns, so against a guy like Taira who can win by submission, this could be a concern. Because Taira can win by a variety of methods, and because he has yet to lose a fight, backing him to win will be the play.
Jake Hadley vs Allen Nascimento – Fight to go the Distance – No (+110)
Even though Allen Nascimento does not have great takedown ability, he still can fight on the ground and has 13 wins by submission in his career. Jake Hadley has 4 wins by submission and 2 by KO/TKO. With both guys having a high finish rate, look for this fight to end inside the distance.
Ion Cutelaba ML (-220) vs Ryan Spann
Ion Cutelaba comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-6-1. He is 5-5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Devin Clark by unanimous decision in September 2021. Cutelaba is averaging 4.91 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 3.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 47% His grappling could play a big role here as he is averaging 4.39 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 60% and his takedown defense is 79%.
Ryan Spann does have 11 wins by submission in his career, but Cutelaba’s takedown defense is more than strong enough to keep this fight standing. Cutelaba has the better grappling regardless, therefore backing Cutelaba will be the play.
Aleksander Rakic ML (-200) vs Jan Blachowicz
Aleksander Rakic comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-2. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Thiago Santos by unanimous decision in March 2021. Rakic is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing just 2.23 strikes, and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling ability is decent, averaging 0.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 25% and his takedown defense is 90%.
Jan Blachowicz may be the more balanced fighter with his grappling, but Rakic has a higher striking volume and absorbs less damage. Rakic also has defended almost every takedown against him in his UFC career. He has lost by a finish only once in his career and that was his first professional fight. Look for Rakic to keep this fight standing and use his striking to win his 3rd fight in a row.
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