Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 35 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a bantamweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 3-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +273. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 35 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Krzysztof Jotko vs Gerald Meerschaert – Fight to end by submission or decision (-250)
Krzysztof Jotko comes into fight with an MMA record of 23-5. He is 10-5 in the UFC, most recently beating Misha Cirkunov by split decision back in October of 2021. Jotko is averaging 2.92 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 2.24 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%.
Gerald Meerschaert comes into this fight with an MMA record of 34-14. He is 9-6 in the UFC, most recently beating Dustin Stoltzfus by submission back in December of 2021. He is averaging 3.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 3.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also an important part of his fighting style, averaging 2.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.0 submission attempts during the same time period.
The fight feels like it will go 1 of 2 ways. If Jotko wins, it will likely be by decision. He has 16 wins by decision in his career compared to just 7 wins by finish. If Meerschaert pulls the upset, it is likely going to be by submission, seeing that he has won 26 times in his career by this method. For that reason, backing this fight to end by submission or decision will be the play.
Grant Dawson ML (-180) vs Jared Gordon
Grant Dawson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-1-1. He is a perfect 6-0-1 in the UFC, most recently drawing with Ricky Glenn back in October of 2021. Dawson is averaging 3.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. Grappling will likely be his preferred method of fighting, averaging 3.36 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 32% and his takedown defense is 40%.
It is hard to fade Dawson here, considering he has still never lost in a UFC fight. He may have drawn his most recent fight, but Dawson has been better at absorbing damage and is a real threat when grappling. He has 11 wins by submission, therefore backing him on the money line will be the play.
Andrei Arlovski ML (-140) vs Jake Collier
Andrei Arlovski comes into this fight with an MMA record of 33-20. He is 24-18 in the UFC, most recently beating Jared Vanderaa by split decision back in February of this year. Arlovski is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 3.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%.
Arlovski is a seasoned veteran in the UFC, and has won 5 of his last 6 fights. Whereas, Jake Collier has been trading wins and losses since his first UFC fight in 2014. He has not won 2 fights in a row since 2013-2014 and that was before he even broke into the UFC. Because Arlovski has been far more consistent, backing him to win this fight will be the play.
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