Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
March Madness is getting most of the attention, but it’s not the only thing going on. UFC on ESPN 33 takes place on Saturday at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. The card will feature a heavyweight fight as the main event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 33 that has odds of +680. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 33 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-200)
Curtis Blaydes comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-3. He is 10-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Jairzinho Rozenstruik by unanimous decision back in September of 2021. Blaydes is averaging 3.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 1.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%.
Chris Daukaus comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-4. He is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO back in December of 2021. Daukaus is averaging 7.71 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%.
Blaydes is a huge favorite here, which takes the money line pretty much out of play. These fighters have a combined 21 wins by KO/TKO and 6 losses combined by the same method. This one should be back and forth with a ton of power shown, so backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.
Matt Brown vs Bryan Barberena – Fight to go the Distance – No (-225)
This fight is very even, and it would not be surprising to see either guy win. Matt Brown does have 21 wins by finish in his career, 13 losses by finish and has seen 8 of his last 9 fights end by finish. Bryan Barberena has seen his last 3 fights go the distance, but still has 12 wins by finish and 3 losses by finish as well. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France – Fight to go the Distance – No (+140)
Even though Askar Askarov has seen all of his UFC fights go the distance, he has 11 wins by finish. Kai Kara-France also has 14 wins by finish, including his last 2 wins in the UFC. They both have solid striking, while Askarov has the grappling to get a submission win if the opportunity presents itself. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Karol Rosa ML (-200) vs Sara McMann
Karol Rosa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-3. She is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Bethe Correia by unanimous decision back in October of 2021. She is averaging 7.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. She is absorbing 5.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. Her grappling is also good, averaging 1.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Rosa has a takedown accuracy of 50% and her takedown defense is 91%.
Despite the grappling ability of Sara McMann, she has had problems avoiding being submitted. Rosa has much better striking and a good enough takedown defense to avoid being taken down. She can win in a variety of ways, so backing Rosa to win will be the play.
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