UFC on ESPN 30 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+606 odds)

UFC on ESPN 30 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a featherweight fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 30 that pays at odds of +606. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 30 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Mana Martinez Win by Finish (-150) vs Guido Cannetti

Mana Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-2. He is 0-1 in the UFC, losing to Drako Rodriguez by submission back in September of 2020. Note that this was a Dana White Contender Series event, so this will be his official UFC debut. Since that loss Martinez has gone 2-0 in other MMA events. He is averaging 2.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 1.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling was not a major factor in his last fight, but he is averaging 6.3 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.

Guido Cannetti is a big underdog and rightly so. He has been too inconsistent to back and Martinez, despite the loss in the Contender Series event has bounced back nicely. Martinez has won all his professional fights by TKO/KO, so backing him to win by finish will be the play here.

Jamall Emmers Money Line (-150) vs Pat Sabatini

Jamall Emmers comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-5. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Vince Cachero by unanimous decision back in August of 2020. Emmers is averaging 5.75 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 4.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. Emmers’ grappling is also very good, averaging 2.90 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 53% and his takedown defense is 100%.

Even though Pat Sabatini won his UFC debut, he did not look overly impressive. His striking volume was low and he had trouble landing takedowns. Emmers has much better striking and grappling, so backing him to win will be the play here.

Dustin Jacoby vs Darren Stewart – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-150)

Dustin Jacoby comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-5-1. He is 3-2-1 in the UFC, most recently drawing with Ion Cutelaba back in May of this year. Jacoby is averaging 4.03 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 3.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling has not been great, averaging 0.36 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 61%.

Darren Stewart comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-7. He is 5-6 in the UFC with 2 no contests. His most recent fight ended in a loss to Eryk Anders back in June of 2021. Stewart is averaging 2.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 3.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 41% and his takedown defense is 67%.

This fight looks to be rather even despite what the odds may suggest. Stewart has seen 6 of his 11 UFC fights go the distance, while 4 of Jacoby’s 6 UFC fights have done the same. Because of that, backing this fight to go the full 3 rounds will be the play.

Makhmud Muradov Win by Finish (-190) vs Gerald Meerschaert

Makhmud Muradov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-6. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Andrew Sanchez by TKO/KO back in January of this year. Muradov is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 2.92 strikes and has a striking accuracy of 64%. His grappling will not be his main focus as he is averaging 0.36 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He only has a takedown accuracy of 16%, but his takedown defense is 100%.

Muradov has had a flawless start to his MMA career and this fight should only prove that more. He has 20 wins by finish in his career, 17 coming by TKO/KO. Gerald Meerschaert has lost by finish in 11 of his 14 losses, so backing Muradov to win by finish will be the play here.