Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 28 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, featuring a middleweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 28 that pays at odds of +636. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 28 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Orion Cosce ML (-160) vs Philip Rowe
Orion Cosce comes into this fight 1-0 in the UFC, but will be making his official debut here. His lone UFC win was in a Dana White Contender Series event in August 2020. Cosce is averaging 4.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. He is absorbing 1.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is also about average, landing 1.02 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 70%.
Cosce has been perfect to start his MMA career and he is favored to continue that run. Philip Rowe’s lack of takedown defense could be a slight issue, so backing Cosce to continue his 100% start looks to be a solid play.
Read our best bets for UFC on ESPN 28 here!
Ronnie Lawrence ML (-155) vs Trevin Jones
Ronnie Lawrence comes into this fight 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Vince Cachero by TKO/KO in February. Lawrence is averaging 3.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing only 1.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. Grappling is where Lawrence has been elite, averaging 10.86 takedowns per every 15 minutes. In just two UFC fights, he has landed 20 takedowns with an accuracy of 76%. On top of that, he is defending takedowns 100% of the time.
It is impossible to disregard how good Lawrence has been on the ground so far. Plus, with his recent TKO/KO win, it also shows he can stand up and fight. Trevin Jones has likely not faced a guy with this good of a grappling game before, so backing Lawrence will be the top play for this fight.
Ryan Benoit ML (-140) vs Zarrukh Adashev
Ryan Benoit comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-7. He is 3-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Tim Elliot by unanimous decision in July 2020. Benoit is averaging 2.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 3.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Benoit has shown at least some grappling ability, averaging 0.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though his takedown accuracy is 25%, while his takedown defense is 70%.
Even though Benoit has struggled to find consistency in the UFC, he looks like the play here. Zarrukh Adashev’s striking has been poor, plus he has yet to shown any ability to fight on the ground. Here we are simply going with the better striker and grappler. For that reason, backing Benoit looks like the right side.
Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland – Fight to go the distance – No (-165)
Sean Strickland comes into this fight 10-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Krzysztof Jotko by unanimous decision in May. Strickland is averaging 5.14 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 3.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 67%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.14 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 60% and his takedown defense is 82%.
Uriah Hall comes into this fight 10-7 in the UFC, most recently beating Chris Weidman by TKO/KO in April. Hall is averaging 3.34 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 51% of the time. He is absorbing 3.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling will be much less of a factor, considering he is averaging just 0.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is also just 38%; however, his takedown defense is 69%.
Hall has won 4 fights in a row and has seen 11 of his UFC fights end inside the distance. Strickland is also on a 4-fight win streak and has seen 5 bouts end by finish in the UFC. Hall has shown plenty of power in his career, while Strickland has the ability to fight on the ground and submit you if you are not careful. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
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