Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 27 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, featuring a bantamweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 27 that pays at odds of +501. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 27 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw – Fight to go the distance – N0 (-330)
Cory Sandhagen comes into this fight 7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Frankie Edgar by TKO/KO in February. That fight took all of 28 seconds before a flying knee sent Edgar to the mat and the fight was stopped. Sandhagen is averaging 6.85 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 48 percent of the time. He is absorbing 3.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 59 percent. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.07 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50 percent, but his takedown defense is 30 percent.
TJ Dillashaw comes into this fight 12-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Henry Cejudo by TKO/KO in January 2019. Because of the long layoff, this very well could be a dangerous spot for Dillashaw. He is averaging 5.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41 percent. He is absorbing 3.03 strikes and has a striking defense of 65 percent. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.68 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Dillashaw has a takedown accuracy of 37 percent, but a takedown defense of 86 percent.
In what is expected to be a fierce fight, it is very hard to pick a winner. Sandhagen is the favorite for a reason, but even though Dillashaw has not fought in the UFC in over two years, he is still very dangerous. Six of Sandhagen’s eight UFC fight have ended inside the distance and 10 of Dillashaw’s 16 UFC fights have done the same. I expect a fast-paced fight here, seeing that a win could help propel either of these guys closer to a title shot. For that reason, I am going to back this fight to end inside the distance.
Read our best bets for UFC on ESPN 27 here
Adrian Yanez vs Randy Costa – Fight to go the distance – No (-280)
Adrian Yanez comes into this fight with 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gustavo Lopez by TKO/KO in March. Yanez is averaging 4.69 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44 percent. He is absorbing 2.31 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55 percent.
Costa comes into this fight with 2-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Journey Newman by TKO/KO in September 2020. Costa is averaging 7.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47 percent. He is absorbing 5.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 58 percent.
Combined these guys have seen all six of their UFC fights end inside the distance. Yanez has won all three of his fights by TKO/KO, while Costa has two wins by the same method in the promotion. While I like Yanez to win this fight, the high volume of striking for Costa is still scary. For that reason, I will be backing this fight to end inside the distance.
Sijara Eubanks vs Elise Reed – Fight to go the distance – Yes (-135)
Sijara Eubanks comes into this fight 4-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Pannie Kianzad by unanimous decision in December 2020. Eubanks is averaging 4.52 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43 percent. She is absorbing 3.69 strikes and has a striking defense of 57 percent. Her grappling could also be a factor here as she is averaging 1.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 46 percent and her takedown defense is 65 percent.
Elise Reed comes into this fight with an MMA record of 4-0. She will make her debut here, hoping to immediately put her name on the radar in the UFC. Reed has shown some early power in her career, winning two fights by TKO/KO. She also has two wins by decision.
It is hard to back Reed on her debut, but Eubanks has been inconsistent, so I do not want to back her either. It should be noted that Eubanks has gone to a decision in all of her UFC fights, so look for this fight to do the same.
Hannah Goldy ML (-105) vs Diana Belbita
Hannah Goldy comes into this fight 1-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Miranda Granger by unanimous decision in August 2019. Goldy is averaging 6.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46 percent. She is absorbing 3.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 55 percent.
Despite the long layoff for Goldy, I still like her in this fight. She lands her strikes at a much higher percentage and has much more volume. Plus, despite a decent takedown defense, Diana Belbita has looked uncomfortable on the ground and has lost by submission. For that reason, I will look to back Goldy.
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