Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 26 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, featuring a lightweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC on ESPN 26 that pays at odds of +568. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 26 predictions for the full 11-fight card.
Rodrigo Nascimento to win by Finish (-225) vs. Alan Baudot
Rodrigo Nascimento comes into this fight 2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Chris Daukaus by TKO/KO back in October of 2020. Nascimento is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55 percent. He is absorbing 4.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 42 percent. He also has proven to be a very good grappler, averaging 2.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.70 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100 percent and his takedown defense is also 100 percent.
Alan Baudot’s chin is a factor here and I do not trust him to perform well in this fight. Though the money line price on Nascimento is much too high. Nascimento has won every fight in his career by finish, so that is what I will be backing here as well.
Francisco Figueiredo to win by Finish (-125) vs. Malcolm Gordon
Francisco Figueredo comes into this fight 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jerome Rivera by unanimous decision back in January of this year. Figueredo is not the greatest striker, averaging 1.93 significant strikes per minute and landing them 54 percent of the time. He is absorbing 2.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 76 percent. His grappling will be the key here, averaging 4.0 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 66 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.
Malcolm Gordon has struggled in the UFC so far, losing both of his fights inside the distance. Figueredo did win his only UFC fight by decision, but has 10 total wins by finish in his career. The lack of grappling for Gordon and his weak chin would make me look towards Figueredo winning this fight by finish.
Khalid Taha ML (-135) vs. Sergey Morozov
Khalid Taha comes into this fight 1-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision. This was a fight back in November of 2020. He is averaging 2.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35 percent. He is absorbing 4.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 43 percent. In the UFC, Taha has shown next to no grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 61 percent.
Sergey Morozov did not look good at all in his UFC debut and I think he is going to struggle here as well. His lack of striking looks to be the biggest factor and while Taha has not had the greatest start in the UFC, I would still look his way to win here.
Mateusz Gamrot ML (-210) vs. Jeremy Stephens
Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight 1-1 in the UFC, most recently earning his first win in the promotion with a TKO/KO win against Scott Holtzman. This was back in April of this year. Gamrot is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent. He is absorbing 2.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 64 percent. Grappling will be the key here for Gamrot as he is averaging 4.91 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy might only be 33 percent, but his takedown defense is 100 percent.
Grappling looks to be the clear difference between these two fighters and because Jeremy Stephens has not won since 2018, I am going to back Gamrot here to win.
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