Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ABC 5 takes place on Saturday at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. This card features a featherweight fight between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +434 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ABC 5 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Ilia Topuria Win by Finish vs Josh Emmett (-250)
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Bryce Mitchell by submission in December 2022. Topuria is averaging 3.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 2.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. Grappling is also prominent for Topuria, as he is averaging 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.5 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 46%, while his takedown defense is 92%.
Topuria looks to be the right side in this fight, but his money line makes backing him straight a risky play. That being said, he has won 12 of his 13 career fights by finish, including all 5 of his UFC fights. For that reason, backing Topuria to win by finish will be our play.
Amanda Ribas ML over Maycee Barber (-195)
Amanda Ribas comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-3. She is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision in March. Ribas is averaging 4.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. She is absorbing 2.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 69%. Her grappling is also very strong, averaging 2.16 takedowns and 1.0 submission attempts every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 52% and a takedown defense of 88%.
Ribas is a heavy favorite in the fight and given the fact that she has been better in just about every category, backing her will be our play.
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Austen Lane vs Justin Tafa – Fight to end in Round 1 (-150)
While Justin Tafa is the heavy favorite, Austen Lane has shown plenty of power already and certainly has the chance to score the upset. Lane has seen both of his Contender Series fight end in the first round, while Tafa has seen 4 of his 6 UFC fights do the same. Look for some early action in this fight as well, which is why we will back this fight to end in Round 1.
Brendan Allen ML over Bruno Silva (-195)
Brendan Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-5. He is 10-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Andre Muniz by submission in February. Allen is averaging 3.85 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.27 takedowns and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 55%.
Allen is a significant favorite, which looks warranted given his current form. He has won 4 fights in a row and has the superior grappling. For that reason, backing Allen will be our play.
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