Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 224 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. This card features a heavyweight fight between Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +480 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Tom Aspinall Win by KO/TKO over Marcin Tybura (-165)
Tom Aspinall comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO in July 2022. It should be noted that the reason Aspinall lost was because he suffered a knee injury, making him unable to defend himself and Blaydes took advantage. Aspinall is averaging 7.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 65%. He is absorbing 2.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. His grappling is also very solid, averaging 4.00 takedowns and 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy and takedown defense are both 100%.
Aspinall is the overwhelming favorite in this fight and having recovered from his injury, he looks to be the right side. He has won 9 of his 12 fights by KO/TKO, while Marcin Tybura has lost 4 of his 7 fights by that method. For that reason, backing Aspinall to win by KO/TKO will be our play.
Molly McCann ML over Julija Stoliarenko (-210)
Molly McCann has an MMA record of 13-5 and she is 6-4 in the UFC. McCann is averaging 5.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. She is absorbing 4.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. Her grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 35% and her takedown defense is 44%.
McCann is a heavy favorite but there is nothing to suggest she won’t win. Julija Stoliarenko has simply been terrible since joining the UFC, therefore backing McCann to win will be our play.
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Nathaniel Wood ML over Andre Fili (-205)
Nathaniel Wood comes into this fight at 19-5. He is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Charles Jourdain by unanimous decision in September 2022. Wood is averaging 6.34 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 4.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Wood is also a solid grappler, averaging 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 54% and his takedown defense is 73%.
Wood is the clear favorite in this fight and based on the fact that he has superior striking and has been much more consistent in the UFC, backing Wood to win will be our play.
Daniel Marcos ML over Davey Grant (-155)
Daniel Marcos boasts an unbeaten MMA record of 14-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Saimon Oliveira by KO/TKO in January. Marcos is averaging 6.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 71%. He has not shown much grappling ability, but he does have a takedown defense of 88%.
Marcos is the medium-sized favorite and it looks to be warranted. Davey Grant is just 2-2 in his last 4 UFC fights, and Marcos has the superior striking. Grant is better at grappling, but Marcos has a good enough takedown defense to be able to limit that advantage. For that reason, backing Marcos will be our play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 224 Best Bets
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