Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 224 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. This card features a heavyweight fight between Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 224 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC Fight Night 224 Main Card best bets
Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz: Fight to end by submission (-125)
Paul Craig comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-6-1 and he is 8-6-1 in the UFC. Craig will likely want to grapple as he averages 1.81 takedowns and 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 20% and a takedown defense of 50%.
Andre Muniz has an MMA record of 23-5 and is 7-1 in the UFC. Muniz is averaging 2.95 takedowns and 1.7 submission attempts every 15 minutes, while his takedown accuracy is 36% and his takedown defense is 41%.
Muniz is the heavy favorite, but Craig’s submission ability should make him a live dog. They both have won majority of their fights by submission, therefore backing this fight to end by submission will be our play.
Jai Herbert vs Fares Ziam: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-125)
Fares Ziam is a moderate favorite in this fight, but neither fighter inspires much confidence. Both have high finish rates, but Ziam has seen 4 of his 5 UFC fights go the distance, while Jai Herbert has seen each of his last 2 UFC fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to go the distance will be our play.
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Lerone Murphy ML over Josh Culibao (-140)
Lerone Murphy comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-0-1. He is 4-0-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Gabriel Santos by split decision in March. Murphy is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is decent at best as he averages 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, while his takedown accuracy is 37% and his takedown defense is 43%.
Murphy is a small favorite in this fight, and rightly so as he is undefeated. Josh Culibao has also been solid, but because Murphy is better at striking and grappling, backing Murphy to continue his win streak will be our play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 224 4-fight parlay
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