Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 223 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a bantamweight fight between Song Yadong and Ricky Simon as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +461 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 223 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk – Fight to go the distance – No (-200)
Caio Borralho is one of the bigger favorites on this card, thus making his money line not worth the risk. He has seen 7 of his 14 fights end inside the distance, while Michal Oleksiejczuk has seen 18 of his 23 career fights do the same. Four of Oleksiejczuk’s 5 losses have come by finish, therefore backing this fight to do the same will be our play.
Rodolfo Vieira Win by finish over Cody Brundage (-150)
Rodolfo Vieira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-2. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Chris Curtis by unanimous decision back in June of 2022. Vieira is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 5.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 3.90 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 27% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Vieira is the clear favorite in this fight, meaning his money line is likely not worth the risk. He has won all 8 of his career fights by finish, therefore backing the same here will be our play.
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Julian Erosa vs Fernando Padilla – Fight to go the distance – Yes (-225)
Julian Erosa is the small favorite in this fight, which is warranted given that Fernando Padilla has never fought in the UFC. He has seen 29 of his 38 career fights end inside the distance, including 7 of his last 9 fights. Padilla has seen 12 of his 18 fights end inside the distance as well, therefore backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our play.
Josh Quinlan ML over Trey Waters (-180)
Josh Quinlan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jason Witt by KO/TKO back in August of 2022. Quinlan is averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 1.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 80%.
Quinlan is a good-sized favorite in this fight, but because he has the superior striking and has absorbed very little damage in the UFC so far, backing Quinlan to win will be our play.
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