Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 222 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a heavyweight fight between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 222 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 222 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC Fight Night 222 Main Card best bets
Sergei Pavlovich ML over Curtis Blaydes (+145)
Sergei Pavlovich comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO back in December of 2022. Pavlovich is averaging 8.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 4.30 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. He has still not shown any grappling ability, but does have a takedown defense of 66%.
Curtis Blaydes is in fact a good-sized favorite in this fight, but the power of Pavlovich cannot be ignored. Pavlovich has won each of his last 5 UFC fights by KO/TKO and has a total of 14 wins by KO/TKO in his MMA career. Their most recent common opponent was Derrick Lewis, a fight Pavlovich made short work of in the 1st round, while Blaydes lost in the 2nd round. Because of Pavlovich’s elite striking and tremendous power, backing him to win will be our play.
Jeremiah Wells ML over Matthew Semelsberger (-110)
Jeremiah Wells comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-2-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Court McGee by KO/TKO back in June of 2022. Wells is averaging 3.68 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 1.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 32%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.28 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 12% and his takedown defense is 100%.
This fight is essentially a pick em’ and while both fighters have their strengths, Wells looks to be the right side here. He has won 9 of his 14 fights by finish, which includes all 3 of his UFC fights and his last 5 fights in a row. Wells has also never lost by finish, so because he has knockout power and the ability to force a submission, backing Wells to win will be our best bet.
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UFC Fight Night 222 Preliminary Card best bet
Karol Rosa ML over Norma Dumont (-105)
Karol Rosa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-4 and she is 5-1 in the UFC. Rosa is averaging 6.14 significant strikes per every minute and has striking accuracy of 56%. She is absorbing 4.11 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. Her grappling is also elite, averaging 1.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 72%.
Rosa is a slight underdog in this fight, but her superior striking and her advantage in grappling, makes her our best bet in this fight.
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At Pickswise we provide free expert MMA picks and MMA Predictions for all of the top UFC Cards. Our UFC predictions and UFC picks include a pick and analysis for all of the Main Card fights.
